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York Ebor Meeting

R

reet hard

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 4, 2011
Messages
8,455
Fairly sure Marb started a thread for this, but darned if I can locate it, so here goes:
My 16/1 AP bet (3places) Mohaadeth is looking decidedly useful now, and though Alinquer looks likely to force it, I reckon my bet will do them for a turn of foot. Still a useful bet @ Betfair's 7/1.
Also bet Kemari in the Voltiguer, as it's hard to see him beaten.
Luck to all at this great meeting.
 
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Hurricane Ivor I will back in the opening handicap. The ground was completely against him at Goodwood.

I actually want to oppose Kemari. Isn't he just a bit boaty to bet at 12f given his price.

The Juddmonte looks a watch only race.
 
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Originally Posted by Tout Seul
I’ve gone for Tribal Craft in the EBOR. Her performance coming second to Wonderful Tonight was yet another notable step up for this late developer. For me, as someone who takes a look at any Jeff Smith horse and also likes to see Mastercraftsman in the pedigree, she’s is one I have followed. If she runs she’ll have a great chance. 16/1 available.



As this is the longshot thread I would add that the trainer of Alcohol Free strongly indicated that he thought she would do well in the Juddmonte. Given concerns earlier in the season as to whether she stays this might appear odd. However her performance in the Sussex at Goodwood indicated that she can cruise along and then launch herself at a fast pace.
I have now backed both Tribal Craft and Alcohol Free ew way in their likely races and also in a smaller stakes double. Given that the prices offered one canget over £1000 for a £10 ew double and the placed element alone would not be too shabby.

Above copied from long shot thread.

Juddmonte down to 7 runners and Alcohol Free is down to 6/1. Getting quite excited as I believe she is progressive and will win if the ground remains good. Fair number of bets mainly at 10's but some smaller better than that. Best price on the double was 14/1 and 16/1 Tribal Craft.
 
Euronymous said:
Hurricane Ivor I will back in the opening handicap. The ground was completely against him at Goodwood.

I actually want to oppose Kemari. Isn't he just a bit boaty to bet at 12f given his price.

The Juddmonte looks a watch only race.
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'Boats' don't win the Melbourne Cup, and that's where he's pencilled in for.
Also like Hurricane Ivor, though I fear he's wrong side for the pace.
 
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I mean, I just googled best recent boats and there was a picture of Twilight Payment. Right next to one of Cross Counter.
 
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Fwiw, I put up Indian Sounds as a longshot in a hot sprint handicap earlier this season but he wasn't in great form going into the race and he didn't fire on the day, but he races in the first race on Wednesday having ran a belter when second in a class three behind Tweet Tweet the last day, (Tweet Tweet bids to carry top weight in the 4.45 on the same card).

I fancy after his last run Indian Sounds can run a career best here off a featherweight. A long shot price too. I'll take him each way in this.

The aforementioned Tweet Tweet actually has an interesting profile for the 4.45. We shall see if Indian Sounds can frank the form.
 
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Heaven to Betsy, I’ve got 16 trackers to cope with at York if they all turn up. Fortunately several are in opposition with each other so I’ll probably be striking those. Particular fancies atm Ehraz in the Acomb, Arecibo Nunthorpe, Reina Del Mar Henry Cecil and Berkshire Shadow Gimcrack.
 
Juddmonte
Mishriff 7/4
Love 11/4
Alcohol Free 6s
Mohaafeth 6s
Alenquer 12s


I was gonna stay away but at those prices Love looks a bet. Not sure Alenquer should be double the price of his stable companion either.
 
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Fascinating race the Juddmonte. Is Love quick enough to beat Mishriff?
Mohaafeth should have won last time in a mess of a race. Needs to step up but can see big run from him.
Alcohol Free won't stay!
Trip may be short enough for Alenquer.

Interesting to see how High Definition gets on it the Voltigeur.
 
Frankel said:
Fascinating race the Juddmonte. Is Love quick enough to beat Mishriff?
Mohaafeth should have won last time in a mess of a race. Needs to step up but can see big run from him.
Alcohol Free won't stay!
Trip may be short enough for Alenquer.

Interesting to see how High Definition gets on it the Voltigeur.
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O’Brien’s take on those two:

HIGH DEFINITION

Race: Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Wednesday)


This will be a nice start back for him and we’re looking forward to it. Everything has been good since the Irish Derby. I suppose the year has been a bit of a mess for him, really. Everything we’ve tried to do, has gone wrong. Before he ran in the Dante, he barely made it and then we were going to run him in the Derby and didn’t, and that probably broke his rhythm a bit by that happening. Then we had to wait for the Curragh, and he cut a heel in the race there and nearly went down, which lost his confidence. When the pace is not fast early in those type of races, and your head hits the ground, it’s usually a fairly serious stumble. And if the pace is not fast early, you can’t really get into it. He was on the backfoot straight away, the ground was fast, and Ryan accepted it, even though he had to go through the motions on him. We think, and hope, he should leave that run well behind him. He looks like a horse, especially when he ran in the Dante, that would get a mile and a half well as he was coming home very well. He had a break after the Curragh, he’s ready to start again and will improve. He’s a big, powerful horse and I’d say there is no doubt he is still out of the top drawer. He will be a horse to look forward to next year and we think he has the class to be a top middle-distance horse yet.


LOVE

Race: Juddmonte International (Wednesday)


The King George was a little bit of a mess. We thought it would be an evenly, strongly run race, and it probably wasn’t. We were very happy for Broome to bowl along, but he reared up and missed the break by five lengths and was still able to make the running, which shouldn’t really happen in a race like the King George. The pace wasn’t very fast for Love. She likes an even pace and her racing tempo is much higher than they went. She still ran very well, and Ryan was very happy with her run. We saw all the things that went wrong for her, but she came out of the race well and, ideally, she wants an end-to-end gallop to see the best of her. She’s in good form and the ground is important to her as she’s such a beautiful mover. We wouldn’t like to run her on soft ground. She has a big, long stride and gallops with her head out. Usually, those type of horses can’t quicken instantly, they need a big rhythm into the last four of five furlongs to see them at their best.
 
Euronymous said:
It's an extended mile and a quarter with a long straight and 12f animals have a good record in it. I think 11/4 is a smidge too big.
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It's a flat track with 2 turns and 4.5 F straight, and very few pro's would describe it a stiff track.
As I've said previously, Mohaayeth's last run and ride had all the hallmarks of a sighter, and expect a differemt horse tomorrow.
 
I think I'm with Euro on this.

Her oaks win was one of the most impressive 1M4F performances I've seen from a filly in a long time.

The way the market is shaping with Mishriff well punted, plus Alcohol Free and the two Haggas runners shortening, if we hold off long enough we might get 4/1 tomorrow, Euro.
 
Euronymous said:
It's an extended mile and a quarter with a long straight and 12f animals have a good record in it. I think 11/4 is a smidge too big.
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She's clearly got a good chance. Mishriff though we know gets a bit further and is probably running over his optimum. The other Haggas horse may want a bit further too, so maybe those two will try and make this a test and break the stalkers.
 
RM may well provide the pace on Love. He'll probably know the limitations o the rest, and may try and nick it from the front.
 
Euronymous said:
That's possible but I don't see how Alcohol Free shortens given her chance of staying is non existent.
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There is a fair chance that the step up in trip is beyond her at this level of competition and that is why she is not favourite.
I "adopted" her last year and my evaluation of her abilities is certainly impacted by my fondness for the horse. She is still to mature and imo is learning race by race. Murphy is learning about her as well and Goodwood provided fair evidence that the pair are working well together.
Immediately after the Goodwood win Balding was asked on TV what would be her next target. He gave a glowing report on her physical and mental development and said he would really like to go for the Juddmonte, shortly after the owner said the same. I still have some doubts but they know the horse far better than I and have plenty of easier but still valuable options.

AF's defeats this season, at a top level, have come when the ground has been Good to Firm and it may well that that ground restricts her running style. It is forecast to be good tomorrow and if she gets comfortable she may well stay. With a small field and a top jockey she has a fighting chance.
 
reet hard said:
Runs to emsure no repeat of the York Stakes debacle?
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The owners surely wouldn't forego a lay up in the Voltigeur just to be a pacemaker. My stats say I do horrible backing long priced horses in Group races unless it's a classic, the Arc or it's a foreign trained animal so I've backed him in the w/o market at 7s.

Hurricane Ivor and long long time tracker horse Bodyline the other bets today although I have Sir Lucan in a couple of doubles.
 

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