York Ebor Meeting

Sat:
Another disappointing day. Royal Aclaim was fair does, not good enough, but Golden Voice was the best horse in the last. The front two not coming back after going way too quick just epitomises how tricky this track is.

Soulcombe was backed for the Melrose at 7s and 13/2 on Monday when prices came out and Powers went 9/2 after racing today so that's nice for a top up. Obviously I expect him to be held up early but I'm not quite as worried given the trip. He's bred to relish it, Secret State franked the form on Wednesday. He's nailed on isn't he?

I'm not that happy Rohaan is running in the Group 2 with my apost Haydock bet in mind but given the prize money you can't blame connections. I don't like any of the opposition so have taken some 7s.

Not getting involved in the Ebor.

Phantom Flight is ultra solid in the last given his New London form. If he doesn't get too far behind (he probably will) and acts on the track (he might not) he should win the last.
 
Euronymous said:
Sat:

Soulcombe was backed for the Melrose at 7s and 13/2 on Monday when prices came out and Powers went 9/2 after racing today so that's nice for a top up. Obviously I expect him to be held up early but I'm not quite as worried given the trip. He's bred to relish it, Secret State franked the form on Wednesday. He's nailed on isn't he?
Click to expand...

My idea of the winner as well and took the 13/2, the high draw the only slight concern but I dont think it is enough to stop him and of course the stable is running at over 30% for the last month!
 
Euronymous said:
Sat:
Another disappointing day. Royal Aclaim was fair does, not good enough, but Golden Voice was the best horse in the last. The front two not coming back after going way too quick just epitomises how tricky this track is.

Soulcombe was backed for the Melrose at 7s and 13/2 on Monday when prices came out and Powers went 9/2 after racing today so that's nice for a top up. Obviously I expect him to be held up early but I'm not quite as worried given the trip. He's bred to relish it, Secret State franked the form on Wednesday. He's nailed on isn't he?

I'm not that happy Rohaan is running in the Group 2 with my apost Haydock bet in mind but given the prize money you can't blame connections. I don't like any of the opposition so have taken some 7s.

Not getting involved in the Ebor.

Phantom Flight is ultra solid in the last given his New London form. If he doesn't get too far behind (he probably will) and acts on the track (he might not) he should win the last.
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Yes Kinross has gone too short in the betting.

I don't understand why Art Power is 20/1 but with Rohaan now in some decent form he gets the nod!

I reckon Mums Tipple goes close in the 4.10. He is in a good bit of form and 6 furlongs is his trip. Big chance.

Don't **** it up Frankie!!!
 
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That 4.10 is a real potential kick me in the nuts race. My biggest cliff horses from the last two years both running. Silver Samurai and Royal Scimitar
 
I'm getting sweeter and sweeter on Mum's Tipple by the minute, Euro.

He was rated as high as 116 on only his third start which was in a Group 1 at Newmarket at the end of 2019.

He lost his way a bit and then kept running over 7 furlongs often blazing a trail before stopping a furlong out.

They dropped him to six furlongs again the last day when he absoloutely hacked up.

I think he has a right live chance off a rating of 97.
 
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That high rating was land of the fairies stuff. I've had a tenner on Royal Scimitar at 70 on the machine. Good luck with the Tipple.
 
A fair few judges fancy Euchen Glen.

He is a very good horse no doubt.

I have a slight concern about the form of that race at Goodwood.

Soapy Stevens was a neck behind Euchen and ran a stinker a few days ago.

How good will the winner that day Trawlerman be?

It remains to be seen.

If Euchen can win this aged nine there's hope for us all...
 
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Sonny Liston (1.50) was given a break after an abortive Derby attempt, and returned in a gp3 at Glorious where he travelled like much the best horse in the race, but got outpaced on the downhill run, off a none too generous pace, before finishing well in 3rd.
He'll be fitter today, and shouldn't be a double figure price on that run, imo.
 
My thoughts for today's York races (written Thursday/Friday, odds as of the time of writing):

1.50 - This looks a good opportunity for Mighty Ulysses (6/4) to pick up another win. His SJP form is still the best on offer in this field. This is probably Cadillac’s (15/2) best trip. Alflaila (4/1) has been slowly away the last three times but could improve past Cadillac nonetheless. It’s interesting that they’re opting to take on Mighty Ulysses again. I’m not sure I want to get involved with the favourite even though the price might be on the generous side so I’ll probably just sit the race out.

2.25 - I’ve added an extra column to this table because few of these have tried this kind of trip and I wanted to check out their dosage figures. A single tick denotes promise in the dosage figures and a double tick suggests the trip will be very suitable. That’s not to say one of them must win. Soulcombe (10/3) is probably a fair percentage call but I’d want better odds in a race like this. Appleby and Balding have won four of the last five runnings between them so they know what it takes to win. Most winners go up close to 10lbs for winning so it might be stretching it a bit to think Wild Crusade (6/1) is a 112 horse and he doesn’t have any fancy entries. So I’m going to go with the other one, Al Nafir (7/1) and hope I’m right about that. I’ve also taken 25/1, 5 places, Temporize. It’s easy to excuse his most recent run over 12f when he set a steady pace that was highly unlikely to suit one so stoutly bred and I'm anticipating a massive step up in form in a race that will probably be strongly run.

3.00 - This might actually be the most competitive race of the entire meeting with just 2lbs separating eight of them. There’s likely to be plenty of pace on too. Art Power (16/1) is the longest priced of them and looks a solid each-way bet. He, in fact, has a bit of form that none of these can hold a candle to, namely when he won the Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh last September by five lengths. The second and third, rated 106 and 104 respectively, were separated by half a length (2lbs) so can be taken to have run to form in what was a well-run race. He beat them five lengths (15lbs) “easily”, according to the form book, after quickening clear. This is his first attempt at the trip and his other entries are in the remaining G1s at six furlongs but if he’s going to get 7f anywhere it has to be here. I can’t split the others so will settle for this as my main bet in the race.

3.35 Ebor
[TABLE="width: 504"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]MON
122+[/TD]
[TD]Notes[/TD]
[TD]RPR[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fancy Man[/TD]
[TD]9-11 [/TD]
[TD]109 [/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]t?[/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Alfred Boucher[/TD]
[TD]9-2 4ex [/TD]
[TD]100 [/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]? +[/TD]
[TD]114 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Get Shirty[/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]110 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]+p
+t?[/TD]
[TD]116 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Okita Soushi[/TD]
[TD]9-8 [/TD]
[TD]106 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]118 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Raymond Tusk[/TD]
[TD]9-6 [/TD]
[TD]104 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]118 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Gaassee[/TD]
[TD]9-5 [/TD]
[TD]103 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]116 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Euchen Glen[/TD]
[TD]9-4 [/TD]
[TD]102 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD]++
(133e)[/TD]
[TD]121 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Quenelle D'Or[/TD]
[TD]9-2 [/TD]
[TD]100 [/TD]
[TD]122[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]118 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rodrigo Diaz[/TD]
[TD]9-7 [/TD]
[TD]105 [/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]p +?[/TD]
[TD]116 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Max Vega[/TD]
[TD]9-11 [/TD]
[TD]109 [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]?[/TD]
[TD]116 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Global Storm[/TD]
[TD]9-8 [/TD]
[TD]106 [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Candleford[/TD]
[TD]9-6 [/TD]
[TD]104 [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]119 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Calling The Wind[/TD]
[TD]9-5 [/TD]
[TD]103 [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]119 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Trawlerman[/TD]
[TD]9-3 4ex [/TD]
[TD]101 [/TD]
[TD]120[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]118 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Ever Present[/TD]
[TD]9-9 [/TD]
[TD]107 [/TD]
[TD]118[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Enemy[/TD]
[TD]9-12 [/TD]
[TD]110 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]116 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] John Leeper[/TD]
[TD]9-9 [/TD]
[TD]107 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]113 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Shanroe[/TD]
[TD]9-7 4ex [/TD]
[TD]105 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]p?[/TD]
[TD]113 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Licence[/TD]
[TD]9-5 [/TD]
[TD]103 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]+?[/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Earl Of Tyrone[/TD]
[TD]9-5 [/TD]
[TD]103 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD]p[/TD]
[TD]114 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Benaud[/TD]
[TD]9-4 [/TD]
[TD]102 [/TD]
[TD]117[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]117 [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Valley Forge[/TD]
[TD]9-2 [/TD]
[TD]93 [/TD]
[TD]112[/TD]
[TD]+p[/TD]
[TD]110 [/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

This is a smashing renewal. I’ve had a couple of ante-post non-runners but I’ve also got Euchen Glen at 33/1 (now 12s) so I’m happy at least to have that one onside. I’ve taken Quenelle D’Or at 66/1 to 8 places. She’s 10lbs better off with Get Shirty (16/1 here) from their meeting at Royal Ascot. I’m looking for something to hit 125 on the scale but there’s no shortage of them. I can’t have Fancy Man at this trip. Alfred Boucher was impressive the other day and could double up if over those exertions. Get Shirty has a smashing profile and looks very likely to improve further for the step back up in trip. He’s going to be my main bet. I’ve also taken 33/1 Global Storm because I’ve never been convinced they’ve let us see the best of him this season and the price is too big for a Godolphin in a big handicap when you consider their strength in depth. I like Okita Soushi’s profile but I can let it go at 8/1. Gaassee (8/1) was impressive in qualifying automatically first time up but Marquand prefers impressive Ascot winner Candleford (12/1) so that one will carry enough to cover the other bets.

4.10 - Another competitive race and I’m just taking Summerghand, Guliver and Commanche Falls against the field and hoping for the best. I’ll probably fouter about with the forecasts and tricasts.

5.20 - I’ve backed Caradoc (14/1 here) for the Cambridgeshire at decent odds and will back him here just in case they think he’ll need to go up a wee bit to make sure he gets in. Cockalorum (20/1) will also carry some sickness insurance. Beyond those two no winner would surprise me so I’ll settle for them against the field.

Good luck all, it's been a tough meeting. I'm well down. I reckon the only one that will get me back in front is Get Shirty unless more than one of the longer-priced ones go in.
 
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VALLEY FORGE the winner of last year’s 22 runner Melrose is the only CD winner in the field but I read that he is 8lbs. Wrong at the weights and is at the bottom of DO’s ratings, stable and jock have had lots of success this year, 28/1 at the moment. Any chance.
 
City of York Stakes. Rohaan ran a cracker in France over 6.5f. A couple of weeks ago. Today’s 7f. May be a touch further than his optimum trip but he has won over the trip, albeit two years ago at Kempton. I would have preferred to seeRyan Moore riding but you can’t have everything. I’ve developed a soft spot for the horse which, on past evidence, could prove to be expensive.
 
Colin said:
VALLEY FORGE the winner of last year’s 22 runner Melrose is the only CD winner in the field but I read that he is 8lbs. Wrong at the weights and is at the bottom of DO’s ratings, stable and jock have had lots of success this year, 28/1 at the moment. Any chance.
Click to expand...

It will be a brilliant bit of placing by Balding (whom I hold in the highest regard as a trainer) if he wins. He's 'wrong' in the weights because winning the Melrose last year got him a free pass into the race so he was guaranteed a run but not off his current OR. He has to run off the same mark as the other last qualifier in the normal way of things.

I also think it will be great for the race if he wins. I just can't see it myself, to be honest. It's too hot a race to be that wrong at the weights.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It will be a brilliant bit of placing by Balding (whom I hold in the highest regard as a trainer) if he wins. He's 'wrong' in the weights because winning the Melrose last year got him a free pass into the race so he was guaranteed a run but not off his current OR. He has to run off the same mark as the other last qualifier in the normal way of things.

I also think it will be great for the race if he wins. I just can't see it myself, to be honest. It's too hot a race to be that wrong at the weights.
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This itself has got me thinking.

If we accept that a horse really needs to be rated around 100 to make the cut for the Ebor, then if you're going to get a free pass by winning the Melrose you really want to be winning the Melrose off about 90 (for which you'll probably go up 10lbs if you're impressive enough) with a horse likely to progress from 100 to 110 or so in its 4yo season but just let it run a few times in races it can't/won't/isn't trying to win. In other words, you're really looking for a future Group horse getting into the Melrose off about 90.

There are some brilliant trainers represented in the Melrose this year so who know which are the Group horses!
 
Desert Orchid said:
This itself has got me thinking.

If we accept that a horse really needs to be rated around 100 to make the cut for the Ebor, then if you're going to get a free pass by winning the Melrose you really want to be winning the Melrose off about 90 (for which you'll probably go up 10lbs if you're impressive enough) with a horse likely to progress from 100 to 110 or so in its 4yo season but just let it run a few times in races it can't/won't/isn't trying to win. In other words, you're really looking for a future Group horse getting into the Melrose off about 90.

There are some brilliant trainers represented in the Melrose this year so who know which are the Group horses!
Click to expand...

There is some stonkingly good value in the Ebor. My pick Max Vega they are happy to offer 33/1 about.

I can only think the fav really is thought of as a good thing which is why a few are drifting. Something has to fill the places though.
 
Marb said:
There is some stonkingly good value in the Ebor. My pick Max Vega they are happy to offer 33/1 about.

I can only think the fav really is thought of as a good thing which is why a few are drifting. Something has to fill the places though.
Click to expand...

There's always value in the big handicaps. Certain horses, especially those from the big stables or with the top jockeys, tend to attract attention and end up under-priced, opening the value elsewhere.

The trick is in identifying the right horse for the value bet(s) :lol:
 
Sacred looks a good thing in the 3.00, and Spangled Mac's form was boosted here on Wednesday, so I've bet both.
Luck to all.
 
I’m surprised that Benaud is running because I looked at one race where it said he ‘ wouldn’t let himself down on the ground’ and I thought the ground had been drying out at York. Then again it might have lowered his handicap mark (hmm). I thought a high draw was favoured for the race (?) in which case he has a good draw. This is my favourite race in the year but I used to prefer it when more lowly rated horses used to run in it.
My little system threw up Alfred Boucher, Euchen Glen ( who I backed ages ago) Quenelle d’Or and Trawlerman but the ones just below them have high draws ( Trawlerman is high too ). I’m so looking forward to this. If Euchen Glen does win I’ll be screaming the house down!
 
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I really would love to see old Euchen Glen pi$$ up.

Jim Goldie presents himself as a modest, sonsie big soul but he's a serious target trainer.
 
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Wow. That Soulcombe won like an odds-on shot. Great early shout by Euro! :thumbsup:

Has to be put away for the Ebor next year.
 
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