Champion Hurdle 2015

[EC1]

TNO amptly demonstrated at Haydock just why he is no CH horse..slow slow horse

yes i know it was probably only run over 10f..but he took forever to pass the second..who would finish where in a CH?

 

[archie]

McCoy on Sunday and the CH in general:
'Looking ahead to Sunday and we will have another go at beating Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown with Jezki. Hurricane Fly bids to match Istabraq’s record of four Irish Champion Hurdles and he is nine from nine at the track so the stats are against us. Leopardstown just seems to suit Hurricane Fly and the ground will probably be pretty dead and testing after Christmas – which will suit Hurricane Fly more than Jezki. Looking back to last time they met, it was the closest Jezki has got to beating Hurricane Fly at Leopardstown, so from that point of view if we can make the same progress again then we have a chance of beating him, but you can’t knock Hurricane Fly. He is an exceptional horse.Better ground does suit Jezki and I really felt that last year when I won on him at Punchestown. He really came off the bend and quickened, whereas when I came of the bend at Leopardstown at Christmas I felt he kept at it rather than quickening.
Looking at the Stan James Champion Hurdle picture, there is no doubt that Faugheen is a smart horse. He looks a proper horse and it is testament to him that he has won over three miles and then over a sharp two miles at Kempton over Christmas. The New One managed to win on Saturday but I don’t think that Haydock is the jumps track that is used to be. It is no longer a nice galloping track and is much sharper and tighter. A horse like The New One can look unimpressive there and I would forgive him the run. Haydock doesn’t suit every horse and better ground back at Cheltenham will suit him.'

 

[Aragorn]

McCoy has it right, Leopardstown and most importantly soft/dead ground is the Fly's ideal conditions whereas Jezki wants better ground.

I also think the Fly is a grumpy ******* and doesn't like travelling

 

[Tanlic]

Jezki is simply a better horse come the spring and it's fairly clear that Jessie trains him for that time of year so I'd read nothing in to the fact that he once again has been beaten up in Ireland over the winter.

Quite whether he's good enough to beat Faugheen is a completely different matter but I'd read nothing into the fact that he could lose again on Sunday.

Fist - I have a question for you too. What was your first bet in this forum's Cheltenham Ante Post thread (at 5/1) ?

That would be Jezki but don't tell anyone..actually did back him but laid him back..........I think I backed him through my dislike of The New One.

I also said before that......Vautour would go hurdling and Faugheen Chasing........but then again I was the only person in our street who say Clay would beat Liston

Is there something in the rule book about changing your mind I don't know about? :blink:

 

[wilsonl]

Of course not but take Faugheen out of the equation (admittedly not an easy thing to do) and you've gone from thinking Jezki was good value at 5/1 to thinking he's e/w lay material on the basis that he's run practically identically the same winter races he did last season before looking a different animal at Cheltenham.

And he didn't just turn the form around with Hurricane Fly, he also did with Captain Cee Bee but sadly we'll never know whether he would have with Our Conor too.

FWIW I too have changed my mind from thinking he'd win in March to now accepting Faugheen could be near impossible to beat but I still think Jezki is far and away the biggest - and possibly only - danger to the favourite.

Anyway, we all have our opinions so good luck with yours and well done with Local Hero yesterday btw.

 

[Grasshopper]

I remain a little non-plussed by the confidence in Faugheen in some quarters, given he hasn't faced anything remotely Champion Hurdle class yet (Irving and SAOV themselves both wholly unproven at that level too).

 

[reet hard]

Seems really straightforward to me.
Take Laddies 6/1 Jezki now, and back the Faugheen/Jezki forecast on the day. Nothing else gets into the race, imo.

 

[Tanlic]

I remain a little non-plussed by the confidence in Faugheen in some quarters, given he hasn't faced anything remotely Champion Hurdle class yet (Irving and SAOV themselves both wholly unproven at that level too).

You could add to that Irving was injured and SOAV never went a yard in the ground..........still looked the business Grassy but keep going you'll convince yourself soon or later :lol:

 

[Grasshopper]

Neither Irving nor SAOV are in the same league as TNO, let alone Jezki. I don't dispute that Faugheen has talent and can win the Champion Hurdle.....but it's essentially based on promise rather than form shown. To put it into context, Istabraq was 9-from-10 before his first Champion Hurdle, where he was sent-off the 3/1 favourite. Faugheen faces a better horse in Jezki than anything Istabraq faced in his first CH, and yet is no bigger than 5/4, and is odds-on in places.

Faugheen could very-well win the Champion Hurdle, but he is just about the worst-value favourite in the Festival ante-post markets, imo.

 

[Desert Orchid]

To put it into context, Istabraq was 9-from-10 before his first Champion Hurdle, where he was sent-off the 3/1 favourite. Faugheen faces a better horse in Jezki than anything Istabraq faced in his first CH, and yet is no bigger than 5/4, and is odds-on in places.

That's a context of your own making, though, Gh. Istabraq had been mopping up ordinary races (in the big scheme of things) in that sequence and his OR would have been about 160. There were horses of roughly similar ability - on ratings - around, eg Shadow Leader, which is why he was 3/1. I agree with you that Faugheen is facing rivals whose ratings are higher than Istabraq's AFTER he'd won his first CH and I can understand why you believe he is a very poor price but that's what the market is all about isn't it? A reflection of people's opinion?

 

[Tanlic]

Seems really straightforward to me.
Take Laddies 6/1 Jezki now, and back the Faugheen/Jezki forecast on the day. Nothing else gets into the race, imo.

I reckon that forecast is fraught with danger Reet.

What happens if as I expect Faugheen kicks at the top of the hill and Jezki goes off in pursuit but can't match him.

We've seen it a thousand times what happens. The pursuer uses up so much energy and hits a brick wall.

We were talking about Kauto Star and Denman yesterday, excuses aside, Kauto as good as he was couldn't put one leg in front of the other and was almost caught by a horse who couldn't have blown wind up his ass on a good day

Great forecast on paper but on the day it may be a completely different story.

You say back Jezki at 6/1 now? For that to budge he'll have to beat Hurricane Fly on Sunday.

Why not take 6/4 Jezki to do that for amount the two bets will cost you ?

No waiting no worrying no risking the wheels fall off between Sunday after the race and March

 

[EC1]

Neither Irving nor SAOV are in the same league as TNO, let alone Jezki. I don't dispute that Faugheen has talent and can win the Champion Hurdle.....but it's essentially based on promise rather than form shown. To put it into context, Istabraq was 9-from-10 before his first Champion Hurdle, where he was sent-off the 3/1 favourite. Faugheen faces a better horse in Jezki than anything Istabraq faced in his first CH, and yet is no bigger than 5/4, and is odds-on in places.

Faugheen could very-well win the Champion Hurdle, but he is just about the worst-value favourite in the Festival ante-post markets, imo.

Faugheen is currently a 165 horse on my calcs..and hasn't really come out of 2nd gear producing that figure...is there another horse in the field that can run to that mark when not fully pushed?..i don't see one so have to think that he is priced according to his ability...so in my world the market has it right.

I certainly wasn't a fan of this horse before he ran at Kempton..he looked on paper potentially your in between distance..aintree hurdle type horse until then.

its a bit boring for me now because unless something does something special beforehand then its a near on formality he wins it.

We could of course be looking at another Istabraq type here..which is something to really look forward to for all of us.....to me the top races don't have to hold lots of betting interest if we have really good horses like this to savour..i can get a bet on in any race...maybe this years CH will just be a race to savour rather than a betting medium.

Looks the real deal to me

 

[Ardross]

Returning to the New One at Haydock surely there is a strong argument for JCR looking to move the Champion Hurdle trial from there last weekend to Festival Trials day - a race run at a tight track usually in a bog is seldom going to be much use as a CH trial .

 

[Grasshopper]

That's a context of your own making, though, Gh. Istabraq had been mopping up ordinary races (in the big scheme of things) in that sequence and his OR would have been about 160. There were horses of roughly similar ability - on ratings - around, eg Shadow Leader, which is why he was 3/1. I agree with you that Faugheen is facing rivals whose ratings are higher than Istabraq's AFTER he'd won his first CH and I can understand why you believe he is a very poor price but that's what the market is all about isn't it? A reflection of people's opinion?

No, it's not a context of my own making - it is a straightforward fact. Istabraq started his first CH at 3/1, and Faugheen is ante-post fave, shading odds-on........when he has achieved nothing more than Istabraq did in the run-up to the race.

If Istabraq can start 3/1 facing "horses of roughly similar ability" then why is Faugheen a much shorter price, when he is facing horses of proven better ability (at this stage in his career)?

I reckon Faugheen starts no shorter than about 7/4 on the day. Anyone taking the price now, should not be permitted to handle real money, and be offered only blunt objects at the dinner-table, lest they do themselves a mischief.

 

[Grasshopper]

Faugheen is currently a 165 horse on my calcs..and hasn't really come out of 2nd gear producing that figure...

I'm quite satisfied that neither Jezki nor Hurricane Fly (at 11yo) would need to come out of second gear to beat a horse like Purple Bay.

 

[Desert Orchid]

when he has achieved nothing more than Istabraq did in the run-up to the race.

That's NOT a fact. That's an opinion.

 

[EC1]

I think you have to look deeper than just the bare AvB form Grass tbh to justify the price..and i can guarantee you i love looking for chinks in armour of short priced horses..i can't find any reason to oppose Faugheen

we have a race where a plodder like TNO is fancied to win the CH...just in that context alone Faugheen is odds on..we have a sub par winner from last year in Jezki who keeps getting his arse kicked by an apparent [not my view] old hand in HF..who will again kick his arse this week.

these are not strong opponents even in an average year..add to that his waltz at a track that wouldn't bring out the best in him at Kempton..you have a solid favourite here

 

[Grasshopper]

That's NOT a fact. That's an opinion.

FFS.

I was talking about their respective odds, because that's what I mentioned in my original post, and that's what you challenged, so please do try and argue one point at a time..........or do you dispute the suggestion that Jezki (a Champion Hurdler) is better than the horses Istabraq faced in his first CH??

 

[Grasshopper]

I think you have to look deeper than just the bare AvB form Grass tbh to justify the price..and i can guarantee you i love looking for chinks in armour of short priced horses..i can't find any reason to oppose Faugheen

we have a race where a plodder like TNO is fancied to win the CH...just in that context alone Faugheen is odds on..we have a sub par winner from last year in Jezki who keeps getting his arse kicked by an apparent [not my view] old hand in HF..who will again kick his arse this week.

these are not strong opponents even in an average year..add to that his waltz at a track that wouldn't bring out the best in him at Kempton..you have a solid favourite here

I don't fancy TNO in the slightest...........I just happen to have a lot more respect for Jezki than most on the forum appear to.

 

[EC1]

I'm quite satisfied that neither Jezki nor Hurricane Fly (at 11yo) would need to come out of second gear to beat a horse like Purple Bay.

on a speedy track like Kempton?..that has to be taken into account imo...i doubt very much that course played to Faugheen's strengths

on a flat track its surprising how hard it is to run away from supposedly poorer oppo...you don't have anything apart from better ability slowing them down..no steep finish to ebb away petrol...its a pretty honest test on a flat track

if the CH was run there i would imagine the finishing distances between horses would be less than at Cheltenham over a number of races

 

[EC1]

I don't fancy TNO in the slightest...........I just happen to have a lot more respect for Jezki than most on the forum appear to.

Jezki is a good solid marker for sure..but thats all imo..CH winner by default imo..in an average year a good solid second placer..in fact he will be a great marker to measure how good the winner is

 

[Grasshopper]

Can't have it, EC1.

The first two home were in the first three in the previous year's Supreme, and for my money, he (Jezki) is clearly a better-than-average Champion Hurdle winner, imo. He is marked down by some because he keeps getting humped in the trials......same as is happening this season, and the same as happened in his novice season........but his record strongly suggests he is a better horse in the spring.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm quite satisfied that neither Jezki nor Hurricane Fly (at 11yo) would need to come out of second gear to beat a horse like Purple Bay.

Fact: Purple Bay beat Bertimont further than The New One.
Fact: Faugheen beat Purple Bay by nine lengths at level weights.

Now, I wouldn't read too much into that. That's where opinion kicks in. I happen to believe it would be very dangerous to dismiss Faugheen's chances on the basis of a line with Purple Bay. How much Faugheen had in reserve that day is open to interpretation. The more you think he had in hand the more you may fancy him, a bit like SOAV in November. SOAV, remember, was well beaten when eased off in that Faugheen race but then again I would not read much into that.

You could argue that Faugheen never came out of second gear to beat Purple Bay. That would be three horses who wouldn't need - in your opinion - to come out of second gear so it isn't hard to understand why you believe they should be closer to each other in the market.

No problem with that. But surely I'm allowed to disagree with you if I have a different idea of how much each would have in reserve?

 

[Desert Orchid]

FFS.

I was talking about their respective odds, because that's what I mentioned in my original post, and that's what you challenged, so please do try and argue one point at a time..........or do you dispute the suggestion that Jezki (a Champion Hurdler) is better than the horses Istabraq faced in his first CH??

The odds are meant to be a reflection of each horse's winning possibilities. You can't just quote the odds without assessing the merit of the form behind them.

You quoted what you saw as a discrepancy in the odds based on what each had achieved and now you want to take that latter part out of the equation?

 

[Grasshopper]

Would you back Faugheen at current odds - Yes or No? Naturally, I'm guessing the answer will be along the lines of "No, because I'm on at a much bigger price".

Also, don't try and bring absolutes into the same argument where you use the phrase "meant to be". As we all know, bookies will cut a horse, long before weight of money (the REAL factor which determines a price) compels them to do so.