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2020 Betfair Hurdle Newbury Saturday February 8th

Double J said:
Exactly that. 3 times now he’s been done for me when he should be winning.

Supreme
The race against Dingo Dollar
The race against Oldgrangewood
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I’m not so sure. We now know he is a far better horse going left-handed on a flat track; he burst a blood vessel in his last race; Oldgrangewood is a totally different horse this season; and Summerville Boy does throw in the occasional top performance. Btw, Kalashnikov burnt my fingers too in that Supreme!
 
At present the following are much much longer at Betfair than with the bookies, suggesting to me that they're very unlikely to run:

Mill Green
Pic D'Orhy (spit)
Didtheyleaveyououtto
Tamaroc Du Mathan
Touchthesoul
Remiluc
Gumball

It looks pretty much like just about anything that would want to run will make it.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
I’m not so sure. We now know he is a far better horse going left-handed on a flat track; he burst a blood vessel in his last race; Oldgrangewood is a totally different horse this season; and Summerville Boy does throw in the occasional top performance. Btw, Kalashnikov burnt my fingers too in that Supreme!
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I think DJ means the race at Newbury when Oldgrangewood beat him a nose not the one at Cheltenham when K bled


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viking said:
I think DJ means the race at Newbury when Oldgrangewood beat him a nose not the one at Cheltenham when K bled

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Yes, sorry, I was including his first defeat to OGW in my assessment. He gave OGW 20lbs that day, caught in the final stride. I really don’t think he’s ungenuine, but I know I am not unbiased, as I saw his first hurdles win at Wetherby in October 2017 and thought I had spotted a future superstar! I still haven’t lost the faith, but concede he’s probably the high end of a Grade 2 chaser, and no more.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
I’m not so sure. We now know he is a far better horse going left-handed on a flat track; he burst a blood vessel in his last race; Oldgrangewood is a totally different horse this season; and Summerville Boy does throw in the occasional top performance. Btw, Kalashnikov burnt my fingers too in that Supreme!
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The Supreme burnt me. I had the same lucky 15 as my mates, bar one selection. Kalashnikov, sure it was Footpad?, Coo Star Sivola, and Buveur.
My mates opted for Summerville Boy and all won a nice tidy amount. I cried.

On to him being genuine, I just think he could try harder in races, been beat in close finishes too many times for my liking. Don’t think it’s to the extent of L’ami, just something that niggles at me.

That, and I’ve probably still not forgiven him for the Supreme. My 33/1 anti post bets about him and multiples still make me a bit poorly. Although I still to this day say Jack Quinlan gave him a poor ride turning in and heading for home.
 
Betfair Hurdle 24
Gumball
Pic D'orhy
Stolen S
Harambe
Not So Sl
Mill Green
Nelson Ri
Thebannerkingrebel
Never Adapt
Remiluc
Oakley
Zanza
Ecco
Lightly S
Ciel De Neige
Whoshotthesheriff
Quoi de Neuf
Highly Prized
Sir Val
Flegmatik
Magic Dancer
Neff
Mack The Man
Tamaroc Du Mathan

The only 2 not declared Elixir De Nutz and Didtheyleaveuoutto.. the 2 reserves are Howling Milan and Distingo

Paul Nicholls' runners:

Pic D’Orhy Harry Cobden :whistle:
Ecco Bryony
Tamaroc Du James Bowen
 
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I've gone in again on Pic D'Orhy at 25/1.

It's partly the notion of maybe missing out on that price when I was happy to take 14/1 a couple of weeks ago.

Before that run I think either Paul Kealy or Tom Segal suggested backing it ahead of it hacking up and going to favouritism for this.
 
I plan to put PD'O on the longshot thread later today but there will be another at longer odds. I'm just waiting for the bookies to update the odds although I might hold off until tomorrow as there's a chance this one will drift to ridiculous odds.

Looking back through my files, I've pretty much lost my touch with this race since Heathcote did the business for me at 50/1. In the back of my mind I have some recollection of also backing Wingman the following year but it isn't on my files. That closed a bit a golden era during which I'd backed Essex, Spirit Leader and maybe even Landing Light, with Rooster Booster beaten by an inept hold-up ride by Johnson somewhere in between.

I'll end up backing four or five. I don't have a problem with that so long as I think their odds are longer than they should be. I have let some winning favourites go unbacked on account of my perverse aversion to backing short shots.

Anyway, more either later today or tomorrow.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I plan to put PD'O on the longshot thread later today but there will be another at longer odds. I'm just waiting for the bookies to update the odds although I might hold off until tomorrow as there's a chance this one will drift to ridiculous odds.

Looking back through my files, I've pretty much lost my touch with this race since Heathcote did the business for me at 50/1. In the back of my mind I have some recollection of also backing Wingman the following year but it isn't on my files. That closed a bit a golden era during which I'd backed Essex, Spirit Leader and maybe even Landing Light, with Rooster Booster beaten by an inept hold-up ride by Johnson somewhere in between.

I'll end up backing four or five. I don't have a problem with that so long as I think their odds are longer than they should be. I have let some winning favourites go unbacked on account of my perverse aversion to backing short shots.

Anyway, more either later today or tomorrow.
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Remiluc
 
I’ve seen worse 100/1 bets than Remiluc. Sure I read on Twitter he has decent form here an all.
 
Double J said:
I’ve seen worse 100/1 bets than Remiluc. Sure I read on Twitter he has decent form here an all.
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"Never Adapt & Ciel De Neige are 2 I like in the Green and Gold at Newbury at 8/1 and 11/1 respectively but these are pretty well found in the market. One at a huge price that I think can run well as this is likely the target is Remiluc @ 50/1. He was 5th in this race in 2018 off the same mark before finishing 2nd at the Cheltenham Festival in the County Hurdle off a 5lb higher mark. These are likely to be his next 2 races. His form at Newbury reads P231225 and his form at Cheltenham (over 2m) reads 212 and he’s not even priced up anywhere for the County Hurdle. After not running since April 2018, he came back in January and was a well beaten 10th of 11 when never being put in the race. He dropped 5lb for that and is now 9lb lower than just 2 runs ago (albeit a long time ago). He clearly runs well at Cheltenham and Newbury and I will be having a bet on him here at 50/1."

@RTR_Liam on Twitter being quoted.
 
Desert Orchid said:
:lol:
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This was intended as self-deprecation. I wondered if I had become that easy to read.

Liam's comments as quoted pretty much reflect what I'd planned to say about Remiluc but I would add that Alan King has Harambe in the field at considerably shorter odds yet he appears to have allowed Tom Cannon off to ride Remiluc and Chris Gordon does not tilt at windmills. Unless King sees the jockey's claim as utterly vital to Harambe's chance, which in and of itself would put me off it. My gut says the County is the target but there has to be a chance he might not make the cut for that. As consolation prizes go, a £150k race isn't bad consolation.

I'm already on at 100/1 as I can't see it going longer than that in the morning, whereas it was 50s tops (I think) when I posted earlier.

I do have another longshot in the race, which I'll put up in the morning as I'm not on yet.

I suspect Slim will be able to work that one out too :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
This was intended as self-deprecation. I wondered if I had become that easy to read.

Liam's comments as quoted pretty much reflect what I'd planned to say about Remiluc but I would add that Alan King has Harambe in the field at considerably shorter odds yet he appears to have allowed Tom Cannon off to ride Remiluc and Chris Gordon does not tilt at windmills. Unless King sees the jockey's claim as utterly vital to Harambe's chance, which in and of itself would put me off it. My gut says the County is the target but there has to be a chance he might not make the cut for that. As consolation prizes go, a £150k race isn't bad consolation.

I'm already on at 100/1 as I can't see it going longer than that in the morning, whereas it was 50s tops (I think) when I posted earlier.

I do have another longshot in the race, which I'll put up in the morning as I'm not on yet.

I suspect Slim will be able to work that one out too :)
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I don't think there will be many rushing to back it so it should be easy to get a nice price. I had read Liam's comments and ran them by another form judge (who could see the reasoning) so it was obvious you were referring to him when you said you liked one at a price.
 
On this Liam. I’ve followed him on Twitter a while. Is his system better to use than racing post? In terms of following form and his ‘nag me’ instead of track.

Thinking of making the switch.
 
I've covered all my bets with one on Never Adapt at 7/1.

For all there's money for Ciel De Neige, Barry Geraghty is sticking with this one and wearing the first colours. I had a look through her form and could find no strong grounds for backing her other than Geraghty and the colours.

Henderson is great at hiding a horse's ability and her handicap mark doesn't appear to have discouraged him any. Hendo knows what it takes to win this race and if this is his best handicapped hurdler - the fact that he's running her with the JP first colours and jockey suggests as much - speaks for itself. He could have held back Epatante for this. He'll have a good line to her with Epatante, Countister and Mill Green who was, to me, more impressive than the bare win last time.

Form book out the window time.
 
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Have added three outers to Never Adapt in forecasts and tricasts: Oakley, Lightly Squeeze and Tamaroc Du Mathan.

Oakley is 7lbs better off for finishing in front of Never Adapt again at Cheltenham, though I’m not convinced he is as progressive as the mare. I do think he can run a big race though.

Lightly Squeeze looks over-priced at 33/1. OK, the handicapper has given him a dull slap, but he remains unexposed, and a mark of 137 might not yet stop him.

Ignore his last outing, and you could make a case for Tamaroc Du Mathan being the best handicapped horse in the race off 130, on a line through Master Debonair. If he recovers his previous Ascot form, he can easily outrun a price of 50/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've covered all my bets with one on Never Adapt at 7/1.

For all there's money for Ciel De Neige, Barry Geraghty is sticking with this one and wearing the first colours. I had a look through her form and could find no strong grounds for backing her other than Geraghty and the colours.

Henderson is great at hiding a horse's ability and her handicap mark doesn't appear to have discouraged him any. Hendo knows what it takes to win this race and if this is his best handicapped hurdler - the fact that he's running her with the JP first colours and jockey suggests as much - speaks for itself. He could have held back Epatante for this. He'll have a good line to her with Epatante, Countister and Mill Green who was, to me, more impressive than the bare win last time.

Form book out the window time.
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Barry doesn't do low weights any more and Frank Berry is playing mind games jocking up Coleman. Be in no doubt that Ciel De Neige just ******* wins...
 
I did zanza at 66s last night but the one I really like now the going has dried up is whoshotthesherriff 16/1.
 

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