The 2024 Longshot Thread

Hooray...and that leaves the way clear for Faylaq to finally get his sunshine day in the Consolation. No prices up yet that I can see, but, sadly, I suspect he won't qualify for this thread.
 
Very pleased to see Rathgar make the cut. I reckon he's going to run a big race. I'd usually be going to this meeting but going to Sandown the following Saturday instead.
 
The Vase - Green Team 40/1, 4 places - started last season rated 90, beaten less than 8 lengths in the Plate off 87, ran okay next time but subsequently very disappointing, including in four runs this season so the price is understandable. However, Williams is just the boyo to tee them up for a big one and he's booked Josie Gordon who is 27% win and 64% first-four for him this season. And he's going blue across the board so somebody else must have noticed. The horse is off just 74 here.
 
chaumi said:
Hooray...and that leaves the way clear for Faylaq to finally get his sunshine day in the Consolation. No prices up yet that I can see, but, sadly, I suspect he won't qualify for this thread.
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My problem these days is that I wouldn't trust Paul Mulrennan to give Adele a satisfactory ride so I'm letting the old fella go.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The Vase - Green Team 40/1, 4 places - started last season rated 90, beaten less than 8 lengths in the Plate off 87, ran okay next time but subsequently very disappointing, including in four runs this season so the price is understandable. However, Williams is just the boyo to tee them up for a big one and he's booked Josie Gordon who is 27% win and 64% first-four for him this season. And he's going blue across the board so somebody else must have noticed. The horse is off just 74 here.
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Yes,I agree took 40/1 as well.
 
Bit late...

There's an outside chance Island Brave has one big race left. If he can get anywhere close to that 2 mile run at Ascot a few years back (last to first in the straight), he could make the 200s on BF look pretty silly.

Proven on the course with a big run in this race a couple of years ago. I doubt he can front run today and expect to win this, but if Ethan Jones can hold him up nearer last until into the straight, there are possibilities.
 
Robicheaux said:
Looking at Spirit Mixer myself.
2nd 2 years ago. 8lb lower now.
I'm guessing he may have had injury problems. Lightly raced initially after that effort.
4 races though this year, to get him back up to speed.
Every chance they're having another go.
Can get 50s.
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Ran well,got stopped when making its move,then ran on again.might have got 5th with a bit more luck.
 
I had a last minute bet on Evaluation because Lucinda Russell is running quite a few horses on the flat but I wouldn’t have wanted it to beat Brian Ellisons horse. I’m so pleased for him.
 
Twilight Jet 2.50 Curragh.
Was an easy winner of the Cornwallis as a 2yo on good to soft off 109.
I quite like the jockey booking. Could be suited to riding this speedy sort.
 
Irish Derby - Sunway 20/1 - ran well in the French Derby and should be well suited by the step up in trip and might be better suited to the softer ground than the Epsom principals. Menuisier is as shrewd a trainer as there is and he has entered it for both the King George and the Arc.

I've also taken it for the KG (50/1) and Arc (100/1).

In for a penny and all that...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish Derby - Sunway 20/1 - ran well in the French Derby and should be well suited by the step up in trip and might be better suited to the softer ground than the Epsom principals. Menuisier is as shrewd a trainer as there is and he has entered it for both the King George and the Arc.

I've also taken it for the KG (50/1) and Arc (100/1).

In for a penny and all that...
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A very fine second, keeping on well late in the day.
 
Saturday, Old Newton Cup - L'Astronome 50/1, 4 places - best form at this 12f, two runs so far this season over 14f and 2m and back down here. Beaten less than 6 lengths in the G1 GP de Paris in 2022 and beaten less than 3 lengths in a decent Listed race at Chester last September (Bluestocking second). No other entries and Jason Hart booked so looks like it will at least show up.
 
Sat. Sandown 1.50.
A G3 Sprint.
Young Billy is booked to ride Equilateral.
AS LONG as it remains good to firm, I feel 20/1 is overpriced + the horse has a very good chance.
A recent run to blow away the cobwebs after a winter in Dubai.
Horse was in good form last summer on fast ground.
I haven't forgotten what an unlucky loser he was in this race 2 years ago.
4 pounds lower now than the above efforts + the price just about qualifies him for this thread.
 
Two longshots for the Eclipse with fingers firmly crossed that all eight run.

Stay Alert 50/1 - second top on my figures on her best form. As lacking in consistency as school dinner custard but if she's in the mood she could run second to the favourite.

See The Fire - 40/1 - left a disappointing 1000G run well behind her when a good fifth in the Coronation but she is bred for much further and could improve immensely here. Her stride data back up the notion. I don't imagine she's only in here as a pacemaker for Ghostwriter.

I thought of backing them w/o COT but the few bookies that are going EW in that market are, as they are entitled to do, only going two places.
 
Sandown 4.47 - two longshots to back up the main fancy:

Stephensons Rocket 40/1 - was rated 122 (102 today) the season before last in Hong Kong so could be a blot if his disappointing form is down to any reason other than getting old.

Storm Catcher 40/1 - was improving earlier in the year and is a big price if it can suddenly return to form.

(I've also taken a mugs' double Stay Well here and Stay Alert in the big one for 560/1 but happy to settle for the place portion at 32/1.)
 
Haydock 3.15 - King's Code 33/1, 5 places - back on the same mark as when second to good winner Botanical over the Dante trip at York, the longest trip he's tried, but surprisingly dropped back last time in the Hunt Cup. Ran better than his bare finishing place in eighth and his stride data may point to improvement for this big step up in trip.

Edit - I've also taken this one in an ew double with See The Fire (1393/1 w, 67/1 pl).
 
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L'astronome is out. Fairly gutted, there was a pretty good chance of a biggish payday provided it was soft enough, but they were never going to let him run on ground with no real give. You can't say they didn't give him every chance for some rain to fall. Another day, hopefully much wetter, let's hope the big prices are still evident!

Rain in the wrong half of the country :-(
 
Bugger. It was ante-post for me.

I did try to cash out at the 48h stage so that I could take the 50s without the ante-post risk but it wasn't offered.
 
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