The 2024 Longshot Thread

There will definitely be one or two worth considering at bigger prices in the Magnet, but the outlier for me at current odds looks to be Oviedo, with 25s available at Corals, PP, Ladbrokes, and BF Sportsbook.

Clearly that's on the back of two 'less than promising' runs so far this season, but on last year's best you might be thinking close on half that was not unreasonable.

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Notre Belle Bete also looks big enough at 40-1 for a small interest, though I'm thinking 50 or 66 might be possible on the day. Hard to see him winning, but wasn't ready when done 3 lengths over a mile at Epsom after a break ( too short as well, which makes that an even better looking run), and may still not have been quite at peak at Ascot but stuck on well enough to hold 5th. I suspect some rain might not go amiss and it would be nice to see him held a little further back than in recent races and try to emulate the 6 May 23 Newmarket run.

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Padhishak is a best-priced 50 with a couple, but anyone's guess whether it's DOM's intent to run well.

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I think Silver Sword is up to this if getting fast ground. Yesterday's run was pretty dire but, although SS does have some soft ground form, the yard have always believed he'll show his colours best on fast. The debate is arguably 'was yesterday's performance fully due to the ground, or is SS just totally out of form, or has the trainer been playing a game of 'let's just get him ready for a York big bang mid-summer'. And there is no clear answer. Which makes the current 25/33 look like an insult to punters. If Dylan Cunha lets him go to York with only a week's break, and if it's on the fastish side, Silver may well be up to running a good race. But you wouldn't want to be taking anything less than 66-1 once it's known he definitely goes.
 
One of my favourite races and it's been very kind to me down the years but I won't get a chance to look at it until later in the week.

I always take a close look at Haggas runners but he has eight in it at this stage.
 
Bunbury cup.
Ropey guest 50/1

2nd in the past 2 runnings and always seems to be thereabouts ,never seems to have luck with the draw.
50/1 is a huge price.
 
Looking at Worcester 4.20 I like two:
Champetre - an improved show lto, he'll like the distance, the going, is visored 1st time and trainer Oliver Signy, though having had few runners here, has a decent track record. 28/1

Moodofthemoment. Was on my list for his last but one rules chase, where he made extremely good headway late on to snatch third over an inadequate 2m 4f. Switched stables, comes here on the back of three point-to-point wins. Is bred to stay forever, is going - adaptable, runs for a new stable 20/1
 
A few have ventured down this road before.
I may have a little ew on Vadream at 100s for the July Cup.
With the unsettled weather + all that.
Ŕan OK on the Saturday race at Royal Ascot.
 
chaumi said:
There will definitely be one or two worth considering at bigger prices in the Magnet, but the outlier for me at current odds looks to be Oviedo, with 25s available at Corals, PP, Ladbrokes, and BF Sportsbook.

Clearly that's on the back of two 'less than promising' runs so far this season, but on last year's best you might be thinking close on half that was not unreasonable.

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Notre Belle Bete also looks big enough at 40-1 for a small interest, though I'm thinking 50 or 66 might be possible on the day. Hard to see him winning, but wasn't ready when done 3 lengths over a mile at Epsom after a break ( too short as well, which makes that an even better looking run), and may still not have been quite at peak at Ascot but stuck on well enough to hold 5th. I suspect some rain might not go amiss and it would be nice to see him held a little further back than in recent races and try to emulate the 6 May 23 Newmarket run.

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Padhishak is a best-priced 50 with a couple, but anyone's guess whether it's DOM's intent to run well.

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I think Silver Sword is up to this if getting fast ground. Yesterday's run was pretty dire but, although SS does have some soft ground form, the yard have always believed he'll show his colours best on fast. The debate is arguably 'was yesterday's performance fully due to the ground, or is SS just totally out of form, or has the trainer been playing a game of 'let's just get him ready for a York big bang mid-summer'. And there is no clear answer. Which makes the current 25/33 look like an insult to punters. If Dylan Cunha lets him go to York with only a week's break, and if it's on the fastish side, Silver may well be up to running a good race. But you wouldn't want to be taking anything less than 66-1 once it's known he definitely goes.
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That was a truly woeful, worst-ever piece of ante-post guessing, with none of them running :-( They'll all pop up, but where and when!!
 
When I saw your post I had a look at the race and thought, "Fuck this for a game of soldiers."

It looked very tricky.

Euchen Glen top on RPRs
Haggas with eight (?) entries, all of which you could make a case for.
Last year's principals.
Etc etc

I decided then to wait for the 48 decs!
 
Prices dictate in my way of betting and skybet are being very generous imo.
Badri 40/1 ascot Saturday. A1R services hcap.
 
Friday, Newmarket 1.50 - Candle Of Dubai 25/1 - this is no more than blind faith on my part. There is no reason on any of my figures why the filly should figure in the finish of this race other than the record of the Johnstons in it. I always double and triple check their runners at this meeting because I know they target it and they often have two or three in this particular race. They have won it seven times in the last eleven years, including with 20/1 and 25/1 shots, so I really have to back this one, especially since it is their only entry (from two at the five-day stage).
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, Newmarket 1.50 - Candle Of Dubai 25/1 - this is no more than blind faith on my part. There is no reason on any of my figures why the filly should figure in the finish of this race other than the record of the Johnstons in it. I always double and triple check their runners at this meeting because I know they target it and they often have two or three in this particular race. They have won it seven times in the last eleven years, including with 20/1 and 25/1 shots, so I really have to back this one, especially since it is their only entry (from two at the five-day stage).
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And in the 3.00 - Artisan Dancer 40/1, 4 places - This race has only been going for six years but the Johnstons have won it three times. The other three went to Godolphin, two for Saeed bin Suroor and one for Charlie Appleby but only the Jonstons are represented here and they’re throwing three darts at it. Jockey bookings suggest Artisan Dancer is the main hope even though the betting suggests the opposite. I’ve taken the 40/1 and doubled it with the filly in the opener for a 1065/1 speculation. Why not.

(I see COD has gone blue since I posted the above. A' wight, let's be 'avin' yew... 'oo's bin puntin' it?!)
 
Haggas has won the Magnet Cup before with a seasonal debutant ( Sinjarri)
So Kingfisher King has piqued my interest.
33s betfair + PP won't last long I imagine.
 
Robicheaux said:
Haggas has won the Magnet Cup before with a seasonal debutant ( Sinjarri)
So Kingfisher King has piqued my interest.
33s betfair + PP won't last long I imagine.
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6 places too. I've followed you in even though I still haven't got round to studying the race.

Can't believe PP let me back it (which makes me wonder if they've heard something negative) because for months now they've been limiting me to pennies.
 
Bunbury Cup - Bless Him, 28/1, 5 places - two pounds lower (though two years older) than when winning this two years ago. All the twos, so it will probably finish second...

I suspect Spencer would have ridden if available and Ghiani is a rare booking for the trainer but it's 'Super Saturday' and a lot of bookings would have been made days, if not weeks, ago. The trainer, according to the Weekender stats, is 7/41 in races of this type at this track with a £50 LSP. I wouldn't be surprised if this has been the plan all season for the horse and am happy to pay to find out. He's top-rated on my figures for this season.
 
L'astronome goes in the 4.07 at Ascot tomorrow. Been waiting all week for early prices, but only just gone up on WH at 40-1. Don't think the others are up yet but there's a chance B3 in particular might open 50 or 66.

If you take the view that L'astronome had every chance of running a race at Haydock last Saturday (if it had been soft), then it's a fair call that he'll have an equal - if not better- chance tomorrow.

But soft enough??

Earlier in the week it was reportedly soft/heavy. Been watching the weather and haven't seen any sign of significant rain in the last few days, plus little in the forecasts. The question will be 'how much will it have dried up by tomorrow afternoon?' Hopefully, there's some rain around before then, but if Hugo Palmer let's him go then we can make a fairly safe assumption the ground's OK (has been pulled twice now while they were waiting for ground)


Edit** Probably worth holding. Horse's mouth is suggesting it's reportedly borderline G/S and, if that's right, and/or it's on the good side, he won't run. Very likely needs a downpour I think.
 
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Project Dante 4.55 York is one they've persevered with and has tumbled down the ratings and has ability. 40/1
 
chaumi said:
L'astronome goes in the 4.07 at Ascot tomorrow. Been waiting all week for early prices, but only just gone up on WH at 40-1. Don't think the others are up yet but there's a chance B3 in particular might open 50 or 66.

If you take the view that L'astronome had every chance of running a race at Haydock last Saturday (if it had been soft), then it's a fair call that he'll have an equal - if not better- chance tomorrow.

But soft enough??

Earlier in the week it was reportedly soft/heavy. Been watching the weather and haven't seen any sign of significant rain in the last few days, plus little in the forecasts. The question will be 'how much will it have dried up by tomorrow afternoon?' Hopefully, there's some rain around before then, but if Hugo Palmer let's him go then we can make a fairly safe assumption the ground's OK (has been pulled twice now while they were waiting for ground)


Edit** Probably worth holding. Horse's mouth is suggesting it's reportedly borderline G/S and, if that's right, and/or it's on the good side, he won't run. Very likely needs a downpour I think.
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The Turftrax map on Wednesday was showing the ground as heavy.
 
Machete 3.10 York 40/1
Has had excuses the last twice and has a chance on his 4th at Redcar and his French form.
Vintage Clarets 1.45 Ascot 40/1
Finished 3rd in this race last year and goes on any ground.
Darkness 4.00 Newmarket 20/1
Has 2 wins from 2 runs here at Newmarket.
Up in class but the 20/1 with william Hill looks huge.
 
L'astronome out as pretty much expected. I'm 5 miles from the course and it's been dry as a bone. HP wouldn't have pulled him if it was soft, so that's a fairly reliable indicator of ground state.
 
I’ve had to back my beloved Wise Eagle 40/1 in the 3.45. I see that he has an entry in the Ebor. I’d be over the moon if my favourite horse could win my favourite race ( although the Ebor isn’t the race I fell in love with years ago when it was run on a Wednesday).
 
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