The 2024 Longshot Thread

He got badly jarred up in the Gold Cup and it’s taken him a while to get over it. He’s not the biggest and he got squeezed up a bit at the end of the race. Dread to think what this will do to his handicap mark,though, which went through the roof when he came second to Trueshan. I meant Coltrane ( I always get them mixed up!)…
 
I didn't have a bet in the race so was urging him on when he came there on the bit but the others were just that bit stronger late in the race.

I don't think his mark will be affected but he can't win a hcap off 103 anyway unless he goes for a Class 3 and carried over 10-0 and they probably won't ask him to do that.

Great run, though, moe. Hope you got the third place.
 
Oh I did. Backed him 100/1 in running, too as I know he has a late kick. I think Adam’s jockey pals are very loyal to him, too. What a journey he’s taking his owners on.
 
Trailblazer wins the last at Perth 25/1. I thought I’d forgotten to back it but thankfully I backed it a day or so ago but only at 11/1. Good couple of days for the Nicols!
 
Len Madeiros said:
Tomorrow:

Lequinto - 19:20, Windsor

Only wins here, and dropping down a Class or two.

28/1 - PP.
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Lequinto ran better than his finishing position would suggest.
Led until the furlong pole before tiring late on.
Will be better for the run and if the blinkers /eyeshields are applied next time out a big run is anticipated especially if returning to Windsor.
One to watch out for.
 
Elizabeth Jane in the Irish Oaks.
Don't think there's a genuine G1 filly in there, so could be ripe for an upset.
Impeccable breeding on her. She is entitled to come on a bundle from her seasonal debut.
Weld doesn't really tilt at windmills does he ?
40/1. Worth an ew nibble.
 
Market Rasen

3.15 Al Zaraqaan has definately paid his way throughout his career. A former William Haggas horse on the flat. Sam England now trains him on the jumps and guess what, he's still winning races. Al Zaraqaan is 4/10 on the all weather, 4/10 over hurdles, and 5/8 over fences. This doesn't mean he's a certainty tomorrow, but it doesn't exactly put me off either. He's a solid horse who could out run his odds.

A fun bet, nothing serious.
 
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Robicheaux said:
Spirit Mixer down to run in the 2.25 at Newbury Saturday.
O. Murphy booked.
25s can be got. Dropped another 3lb after the Pitmans Derby,mwhere he didn't run badly.
May have a nibble before decs tomorrow.
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Nice work if you got 25s. Has a healthy advantage on my best figures for him but I only got 14/1 on Thursday after the dec stage.

However, he's been shortening up since yesterday morning and is into 6/1 generally.
 
I follow J C Smith’s horses and having been wrong and/or unlucky several times so far this season have high hopes for Spirit Mixer today. Not got 25’s but quite a lot ( for me!) at double figures ew.
All the boxes ticked in my view for today.
For the second time this season have done a small stakes ew Yankee on Smith’s runners in the coming weeks.
Murphy is a key factor.
Glad to see some knowledgeable minds also feel positive !
 
I was never happy with the ride SM got there. Early position was fine but the pace was slow yet Murphy allowed him to drift back a couple of lengths unnecessarily. I thought early in the straight he might go and pick them up comfortably but Murphy's whip strokes looked to be fresh air ones bar one around the furlong marker by which time he was never going to get competitive.

Something at Goodwood, maybe?
 
Marb: didn’t we decide to keep an eye on Syd Hosies runners a year or so ago? I looked at his runner and didn’t bother to back it ( I’m down to 50 pence in my betting account!).
 
Robicheaux said:
Elizabeth Jane in the Irish Oaks.
Don't think there's a genuine G1 filly in there, so could be ripe for an upset.
Impeccable breeding on her. She is entitled to come on a bundle from her seasonal debut.
Weld doesn't really tilt at windmills does he ?
40/1. Worth an ew nibble.
Click to expand...
Good 4th. Remembered you tipping her just before the race started so got 25/1.
 
moehat said:
Marb: didn’t we decide to keep an eye on Syd Hosies runners a year or so ago? I looked at his runner and didn’t bother to back it ( I’m down to 50 pence in my betting account!).
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Yes I did Temporize. Typical that I didn't put it on here!
 
Yarmouth 6.30 tomorrow.
A straight mile, good to firm ground, are ideal conditions for Carolus Magnus.
A stated before. A very well handicapped horse. Guessing which target, is part of the game.
Another crack at the Cambridgeshire is my take.
He'd have to start winning a race soon, to qualify.
22/1 tomorrow.
 
York, 2.40 - Brazen Bolt 50/1, 4 places - He spent the winter in Bahrain, having gone there rated 91. His form took off over there and he came back rated 102 so he’s dropped 10lbs for a handful of poor runs. Could they be down to re-acclimatising? He was a longshot in all those races so nothing was expected of him. In one of those races abroad he was ½-length second to Roman Dragon to whom he was conceding 17lbs. Roman Dragon ran 6lbs better next time (on RPRs) before turning up at Chester in the spring off 95 and beaten only a length by Democracy Dilemma at 100/30. If Brazen Bolt is the 15lbs better than Roman Dragon their Bahrain form implies then he really could be lobbed in here off 92 (and be a candidate for the odds-on thread :ROFLMAO:). I’m happy to pay to find out. They might have something like the Ayr Gold Cup in mind but he’d need to get up the weights to have a chance of making the cut there.
 
Out
Desijo said:
Lequinto ran better than his finishing position would suggest.
Led until the furlong pole before tiring late on.
Will be better for the run and if the blinkers /eyeshields are applied next time out a big run is anticipated especially if returning to Windsor.
One to watch out for.
Click to expand...
Out again tomorrow in the 19:05, WINDSOR.

It’s not 20/1 plus though; nearer 16/1.
 
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