The 2024 Longshot Thread

Always nice to hear that someone has made a small profit -I was very disappointed that he didn't really get competetive.
 
I've taken 50s ew Docklands in the Juddmonte.
Taking a chance he is more than an Acot specialist + is more a late maturing, improving type, which his staying on 2nd in the Queen Anne, suggests he might be.
 
Outsider said:
Looking for Lynda. First race Wednesday 22/1 boosted to 25/1
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Agree. Second top on my table on his form here in May, which he also ran to in the Dash. Disappointing since but possibly put by for this. Worth paying to find out though I'm not so keen on his draw (2). I took 20/1 to 6 places.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Agree. Second top on my table on his form here in May, which he also ran to in the Dash. Disappointing since but possibly put by for this. Worth paying to find out though I'm not so keen on his draw (2). I took 20/1 to 6 places.
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Same race - One Night Stand 100/1, 6 places. Needs fast ground on turf and won off this mark in the spring on the Tapeta which tends to translate well to turf.
 
American Style. 2.25 York tomorrow 50/1.
Ran the 95 rated Pentile Bay to a head. A bit disappointing, though consistent since.
Drawn low, which as we've seen in the first race, is no disadvantage.
Think he could run well here.
 
Here's a couple of Charlie Johnston longshots for tomorrow. There's a tenuous line of listed form which links both of them aswell.

York 3.00 Dear My Friend. I was impressed with this horse at the start of this year when he returned from being gelded. He won three races on the bounce on the all weather. He shot up the handicap because of this, so was chucked in the deep end in group races afterwards. He's clearly not up to group 2 and 3 level, but ran a bit better last time, and now goes back into a handicap. Yes, he's top weight, but I think he has another big run in him, so why not chance him at 50/1 or thereabouts.

Newcastle 7.45 Benacre. This is a horse who kind of hints at having some ability but you just don't know when he will deliver on it. He was fourth behind the aforementioned Dear My Friend in a listed race at Gosforth Park, and that form would make him very attractively handicapped for this race tomorrow. Again, I can't guarantee anything, but he's longshots odds, so might be worth something each way.
 
Strike Red 4.10 York Saturday 20/1 bet 365.
Looks well handicapped on the best of his form.
Finished 6th in the Stewards cup and Richard Fahey speaks well of him in the Sporting Life.
York will hopefully get plenty of rain tonight which will enhance his chances.
 
Desijo said:
Strike Red 4.10 York Saturday 20/1 bet 365.
Looks well handicapped on the best of his form.
Finished 6th in the Stewards cup and Richard Fahey speaks well of him in the Sporting Life.
York will hopefully get plenty of rain tonight which will enhance his chances.
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Yes, I agree
 
Two speculative ones for tomorrow
Alfred Boucher 3.35 York 66/1 william hill
Finished 2nd in this 2 years ago
Dark Thirty 4.10 York 40/1
Up against Strike Red and is another who is well handicapped on best form.
Good luck all.
 
Ebor - Alfred Boucher 66/1, 6 places - short-headed by Trawlerman in this race two years ago off a pound higher and got a nice public gallop at Ascot a fortnight ago. I've also taken 33/1 8 places (Sky are going 40s but they don't let me bet more than pennies).
 
Ayr Gold Cup - Summerghand 33/1 - I said after last week's race I thought he's GOTG but he did run better than I'd thought and might be going for the penalty tomorrow that might guarantee the run at Ayr. He's absolutely chucked in if they can get him back to form.
 
Desijo said:
Two speculative ones for tomorrow
Alfred Boucher 3.35 York 66/1 william hill
Finished 2nd in this 2 years ago
Dark Thirty 4.10 York 40/1
Up against Strike Red and is another who is well handicapped on best form.
Good luck all.
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Alfred Boucher is a non runner.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Ebor - Alfred Boucher 66/1, 6 places - short-headed by Trawlerman in this race two years ago off a pound higher and got a nice public gallop at Ascot a fortnight ago. I've also taken 33/1 8 places (Sky are going 40s but they don't let me bet more than pennies).
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I looked , but he may need another pipe opener or two.
I'm on stablemate Oneforthegutter at 66s.
Well handicapped with the fancied Fairbanks, on their run at Newmarket earlier this season.
Desert Orchid said:
Ebor - Alfred Boucher 66/1, 6 places - short-headed by Trawlerman in this race two years ago off a pound higher and got a nice public gallop at Ascot a fortnight ago. I've also taken 33/1 8 places (Sky are going 40s but they don't let me bet more than pennies).
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Marb said:
3.00 Fuji Mountain was sent off big odds for the Windsor Castle but hung badly left, so all things considered the fact he finished 11th of 27 horses was actually a good effort. He's since come out and won a novice event at Chester quite nicely. I just think he's a joke of a big price here tomorrow at 66s or thereabouts, and were he with a higher profile trainer he'd be a third of the current price. We saw massive prices get in the frame in the 2 year old races at Royal Ascot, and maybe this trend can continue a bit at this meeting.
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Same method in the madness for me tomorrow in the 4.45 at York.
 
I'm doing Vafortino e/w in the 3.00 with the dead eight runners. I think he's the type to run well at a big price. The Fav looks a class apart but will the same Audience turn up that did in the Lockinge and Goodwood? His supporters will hope so. He's been a revelation since the gelding operation. If he runs to form here he wins. Kinross I don't know what to make of anymore. Maybe Vafortino can sneak a place. There's bits and pieces of form which could allow him to run well. Even his sixth in the Wokingham off top weight wasn't such a bad effort. He needs a career best but stranger things have happend. He's had a 42 day break off the track and his form figures after decent breaks since being gelded are quite good. Let's see.
 
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1.50 - two longshots simply because they are over-priced relative to where they sit in my ratings table.

Flight Plan 28/1 - second top only 2lbs off the top. My figures are somewhat at odds with ORs (joint bottom but only 3lbs behind the second top) and RPRs (7lbs off the top but 2lbs higher than 15/2 shot Task Force)

Checkandchallenge 50/1 - 4lbs off my top rating (2lbs on his best form of last season) and third top on RPRs. If the first-time cheekpieces work he could well outrun those odds.

No great expectations, to be honest. I just think the prices are wrong.
 
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