1000 Guineas Thread

Infallible still the favourite after the Fred Darling. I`m most surprised and i`ll be covering my Natagora position with a bet on Muthabara after that.
 
I cannot see how she won that, she looked like being tailed off at one stage. Have never heard the Channel4 team be so negative regarding a horse in the paddock.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 19 2008, 03:44 PM
Have never heard the Channel4 team be so negative regarding a horse in the paddock.
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Indeed. And to be honest all this talk about coats is getting right on my nerves. McGrath this morning said Raven`s Pass was more forward in his coat than Twice Over in the Craven and he doesn`t expect a reversal in form come May. Now, if that`s his opinion fair enough but "forward in his coat" is just a nonsense phrase and means feck all.
 
Using Lady Deauville as a marker, I think Laureldean Gale remains the value in this race. Surprised not to hear any news from the boys in blue of her having a 'classic workout' like the colts though.
 
From what i've seen Natagora looks head and shoulders above this lot, but i worry bout trip for her


1000 Guineas looks a let it goooo race to me
 
Originally posted by Euronymous@Apr 19 2008, 03:00 PM
Now, if that`s his opinion fair enough but "forward in his coat" is just a nonsense phrase and means feck all.
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Euro - it means what it says for feck's sake!

Most horses - and this is esp true of fillies - don't usually run to their best until their summer coat has come through. It's not infallible as a guide however, some still win - but it is a good pointer; and if you listen to reports from the paddock, when the person there on the spot says a horse's coat 'hasn't come through yet' even tho it's well fancied in the betting on eg breeding or connections, it's time to hedge your bets
 
PS And if you don't believe *me*, then listen to Chris talking about Nahood on another thread!
 
Francome said she looked the best filly out there. It sounds very subjective to me and if it`s ok with you :) i`m not gonna ever let it be a factor in my puntering.
 
Whilst my confidence on Raven`s Pass is draining as the rain arrives i feel more and more confident that Natagora will win the 1000. I feel she has as much of a favourite`s chance as New Approach to be honest.
 
Allow me to puncture your confidence :D

"If you want a system for the 1,000 Guineas the only one that seems to work most of the time is to focus on fillies who earned RPR's of 112 or more as 2yo's. The statistic fitted 17 of the last 25 winners, and only two of this year's entries meet the requirement - Laureldean Gale and Natagora.

I just won't hear of defeat for Natagora. She ran tremedously fast when winning her prep race. In fact I've given only two 1000 Guineas winners speed ratings as big as she earned that day in preps for the big race in the last decade. The pair in question were Wince and Speciosa who both went onto win the Classic. I can't see what can stop Natagora making it three out of three." - Nick Mordin in today's Weekender

I'm slightly perplexed by his take on the Prix Imprudence as his figure is nowhere near what I brought her out at, and Dave Edwards remarked in the same paper; "She underlined her wellbeing with a smooth success in a slowly run 7F Prix Imprudence at Maison Laffiete recently".
 
I think the safe ground (with the possibility of an ease in the going) will be a massive help to Infallible imo.
 
I`m more confident of faster ground on Sunday, think i read somewhere that most if not all of the rain should be done falling at Newmarket by Friday afternoon/evening.


As for Mr Mordin, i see that he flagged up Iris De Balme as one to follow over a marathon trip early in the year. The guy`s in form.
 
For the record

Winstanley = Muthabara
Cullinan = Laureldean Gale
Mordin = Natagora
Edwards = Natagora
Heyhoe = Natagora
Whitehouse-Jones = Kitty Matchem

Segal has just sat on the fence and appears to be advocating laying New Approach. I can see Natagora going off favourite now
 
well, nice advertisement by Cesare for Spacious´ prospects in the race I would say... at least her lead horse is fit&well !
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 30 2008, 01:35 PM
Savethisdanceforme has been cut right across the board this morning. As low as 7/1 in places.
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Am on at 20's..in a good position now to lay I presume.. :clap:
 
Hold your nerve with Savethisdanceforme. She's still the best bet in the race at 8 or 9/1. She'd be a qualifier for Mordin's system had RPR's not underestimated her Curragh romp.
 
I think a RFC of Natagora and Savethelastdance is the way to go for anyone who's not already on the French filly.
I can't fancy Muthabara at all, but Infallible is also a possibility.
Interesting stat about Laureldean Gale. I'm v worried tho about Godolphin's horses having acclimatised
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Apr 30 2008, 04:08 PM
Hold your nerve with Savethisdanceforme. She's still the best bet in the race at 8 or 9/1. She'd be a qualifier for Mordin's system had RPR's not underestimated her Curragh romp.
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She'd been my idea of the e/w shot when she was 25/1 which was over a month ago and before she'd even run this year. Whether or not you can call a horse with just 2 wins from 7 the 'best in the race' would be a moot point, but doubtless someone's going to say Peeping Fawn to me before I try and point out her early career failures and the time it took to lose her maiden tag. Her present profile doesn't look like that of a Classic winner, and can only boast a Listed race to her name. I'm half reminded of John Lennon's answer when asked if Ringo Starr was the best drummer in the world. "He's not even the best drummer in the Beetles". Now I realise the observation was made with Listen not being in the race, but it would appear that AOB is trying to win this race with his second choice (not that he'd be incapable of doing so of course by a long chalk) this would temper my enthusiasm slightly.

However if you dig a bit deeper, a couple of interesting things do emerge which is what led to me nominating her elsewhere. In the first case she represents the Bousacc which looks the best form on display and has been franked enough times to confirm this since October. The other thing is the line to Maryellens Spirit beaten 9L's into 2nd in that listed race at the Curragh. Now admitedly this was a fast run race, and winning distances can look bigger than they typically are in slower affairs, but Maryellens Spirit previosuly had Curtain Call behind her in second place by 2L's on her debut. That line looks strong, although unfortunately the two races were run very differently, and it's always possible Curtain call got caught for lack of pace.

You wouldn't be rushing out to oppose her if she's as progressive as she might appear
 
Ladbrokes have clipped Kitty Matcham into 10's today whilst keeping Savethisdanceforme outright best price at 10's. Presumably this means Murtagh is on Kitty Matcham.
 
With all due respect to those who fancy her, for the life of me I can't see why Savethisdanceforme should be anything other than 25/1+

Anyone care to enlighten me? :)
 
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