2 Mile Chasers 21/22

Tanlic said:
Daft is it? Let me set the book straight here...almost every bet I have put up since January has won...I have put only 2 horses up on the running thread and both won. I have 2 very large bets AP at odds against on Honeysuckle and Shishkin do you really think I give a fukc what you or DO think Shishkins rating should be.....the horse is in his prime already and if my luck is in hell win the QMCC but after that I predict he will start to decline and he won't go on to achieve greatness. Horses like him always end up burning themselves out way earlier than normal.. He doesn't have the high cruising speed the greats of the past had and depends mainly on that great turbo of his kicking in....altior was an exception and his lasted longer than most but the majority of that type usually burn themselves out after a couple of seasons....happy punting Gawd knows you and DO need all the help you can get:)
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My granny could have tipped Honeysuckle and Shishkin, ya massive fuc*king nelly! :cool:
 
Grasshopper said:
My granny could have tipped Honeysuckle and Shishkin, ya massive fuc*king nelly! :cool:
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Yeah but how many King Nelly's have backed her at 3/1 down to 11/8 over the last 8 months or had the balls to back her at huge odds to win 5 figures to be the first horse in history to win 4 Champion Hurdles?

I think that is possible if Jonbon Constitution Hill Appreciate It Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard all go chasing or step up in trip which by all accounts is highly likely. Next year if she satys sound I can't see what will be able to give her a race
What do you think?

As for Shishkin not many Energumene fans or the thousands of those sitting in the wall backed Shishkin at 11/10. The difference is I put my money where my mouth is
 
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Tanlic said:
Yeah but how many King Nelly's have backed her at 3/1 down to 11/8 over the last 8 months or had the balls to back her at huge odds to win 5 figures to be the first horse in history to win 4 Champion Hurdles?

I think that is possible if Jonbon Constitution Hill Appreciate It Dysart Dynamo and Sir Gerhard all go chasing or step up in trip which by all accounts is highly likely. Next year if she satys sound I can't see what will be able to give her a race
What do you think?

As for Shishkin not many Energumene fans or the thousands of those sitting in the wall backed Shishkin at 11/10. The difference is I put my money where my mouth is
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I have nothing but respect for the mare, but the list of horses better than Honeysuckle that didn't win three (let alone four) Champion Hurdles is exceedingly long, and I think that - eventually - she has to run into something which will be able to concede her the weight.

Given the apparent high quality of the 2m novice hurdlers this season, will all of them go chasing? Maybe, though perhaps age (and other factors) will be taken into account.

This time next year, DD and Jonbon will be a 7yos, and probably will go chasing. However, CH will only be a 6yo, and he might get another season over hurdles, before he's sent over fences (unlikely perhaps, but not impossible). Sir Gerhard is already 7yo, and would be an 8yo by the time of the 2023 Festival. That's not too old for an Arkle winner of course, but they might choose to forgo a chase career with that one completely........or put him into a toss-up with Appreciate It (who still might make this season's Champion Hurdle), as to who goes chasing and who stays over hurdles.

I don't know. It's hard enough trying to predict who will make it to the line in this year's Champion Hurdle, never mind who is going to win it in 2024 - which is the type of long-range bet that most people I know would readily-concede is speculative, rather than a demonstration of shrewdness (shroodness?) or confidence.

No-one (certainly not me) is calling you a poor judge. I'm only calling you out on your dogmatic stance around Shishkin and Energumene, which (imo) is a bit of a swiss-cheese of an argument; one based on conjecture, and the wilful dismissal of the evidence before your eyes.

No biggie.
 
That's my boy Hawk cheer me up:lol:

I'm mostly going by what the trainers have said.

Appreciate It WPM " He's a typical old fashioned staying chasing type you rarely see these days" "He should have gone chasing but because of his setback we will keep him over hurdles this year"

Constitution Hill and Jonbon " Both their futures lie over fences over fences" "The are chasers in the making"

Dysart Dynamo W P Mullins "Will someone tell that guy Grassy from Edinburgh my horse is a chaser":lol:

Sir Gerhard W P Mullins "Anyone wanna buy a horse ?" :whistle:

TBH I haven't heard or read any quotes from WPM unless they are on youtube due to the fact I don't get British or Irish TV here and as sooon as a race is finished I turn it off and go to the next race.
 
If she did win a 3rd Champion Hurdle she would only be a 9year old

If she was still unbeaten I reckon they would go for it as she raked in almost 1/2million pounds in the last year.

If she had no reproductive issues she could still give birth to about 9 foals plus with her having such an achievement to her name her foals could be priceless
 
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Tanlic said:
If she did win a 3rd Champion Hurdle she would only be a 9year old

If she was still unbeaten I reckon they would go for it as she raked in almost 1/2million pounds in the last year.

If she had no reproductive issues she could still give birth to about 9 foals plus with her having such an achievement to her name her foals could be priceless
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I doubt her foals would command any more money for her having won four Champion Hurdles than they would for her winning three, tbh.........and I suspect she'd make more money (in the long run) spending an additional year in the paddock, than risking it all for another year on the racecourse.

This has been a "Your Bet Is Already Fu*cked" production.

:lol:
 
Grasshopper said:
I doubt her foals would command any more money for her having won four Champion Hurdles than they would for her winning three, tbh.........and I suspect she'd make more money (in the long run) spending an additional year in the paddock, than risking it all for another year on the racecourse.

This has been a "Your Bet Is Already Fu*cked" production.

:lol:
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Think Quevega..she was going for her 7th win in the mares hurdle before she was sent to the sheds and only just failed to pull it off.

Honeysuckle owner has only 3 horses the other tow and rather ordinary ..asking him to retire her if she is still winning would be like asking him to give up a child.

Trust me no way she retires if she is unbeaten and wins a 3rd...Anyway her indoors says she wants a new Honda Civic if she does pull it off so I will end up with enough for a pizza if she does pull it off :lol:
 
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G-G said:
Shishkin did quicken, watch him after the last, he's almost 2 lengths down as he lands. No way he won just because he was getting past a slowing horse.
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Shishkin:
4f out to 2f out - 29.95s (average less than 15spf)
2f out to 1f out - 15.39s
1f out to WP - 15.62

Slowing down, just not as dramatically as the others.

And in the 2m5f handicap Phoenix Way's final furlong was 15.71 - only about 3/4L slower than Shish but about 2 lengths faster than Energumene. And the handicap was a strongly-run race too.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Shishkin:
4f out to 2f out - 29.95s (average less than 15spf)
2f out to 1f out - 15.39s
1f out to WP - 15.62

Slowing down, just not as dramatically as the others.

And in the 2m5f handicap Phoenix Way's final furlong was 15.71 - only about 3/4L slower than Shish but about 2 lengths faster than Energumene. And the handicap was a strongly-run race too.
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My lack of bri-nylon clothing and dandruff should amply demonstrate that I’m a complete amateur when it comes to the clock, but don’t the slow per-furlong times in the last half-mile - relative to the those in 2m5f chase - suggest that they have probably gone quite hard over the first mile-and-a-half?
 
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Grasshopper said:
My lack of bri-nylon clothing and dandruff ahould amply demonstrate that I’m a complete amateur when it comes to the clock, but don’t the slow per-furlong times in the last half-mile - relative to the those in 2m5f chase - suggest that they have probably gone quite hard over the first mile-and-a-half?
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The details aren't mine as my bri-nylon clothing is in the wash and I've just washed my hair with Head & Shoulders. I pinched them from the ATR results site but they suggest the 2m race was evenly run whereas the handicap was strongly run.

Personally, I think it highlights some of the flaws of sectional timing. I think they went fast but their sheer class kept the pace going so that the overall picture is of evenness.
 
Racing TV tweeting how does Energumene beat Shishkin in March. People crabbing Shishkins jumping saying it was poor, I agree to a point. Theres no saying it will be better in March though as some think.

Id just go Harry Skelton esque from the off and hope they don’t come back to you. Put Shishkins jumping under pressure, get Nico working early. Energumene could finish last under them tactics, but they have to do something different right?
 
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Mmm, I think I’d go off a bit slower then wind it up from a long way out ‘til he was at the fastest cruising speed he could manage. Hopefully, that slightly slower start would let me get home without pace dropping this time.
 
Double J said:
Racing TV tweeting how does Energumene beat Shishkin in March. People crabbing Shishkins jumping saying it was poor, I agree to a point. Theres no saying it will be better in March though as some think.

Id just go Harry Skelton esque from the off and hope they don’t come back to you. Put Shishkins jumping under pressure, get Nico working early. Energumene could finish last under them tactics, but they have to do something different right?
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If Shishkin has jumping issues, I'm not seeing them.

He isn't flamboyant in the Edredon Bleu mould, but he is perfectly satisfactory, and (imo) far too much is being made of this as being some sort of Achilles Heel.
 
Grasshopper said:
If Shishkin has jumping issues, I'm not seeing them.

He isn't flamboyant in the Edredon Bleu mould, but he is perfectly satisfactory, and (imo) far too much is being made of this as being some sort of Achilles Heel.
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Aye, the same as some make too much of the course being Eng's Achilles heel, even though he's never run there :). Won on a variety of tracks, LH/RH, stiff uphill finishes ,too. Fact is, as the likely stronger stayer, and the better jumper, the track could well prove in Eng's favour.
 
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