2 Mile Chasers 21/22

Tanlic said:
Honeysuckle owner has only 3 horses the other tow and rather ordinary ..asking him to retire her if she is still winning would be like asking him to give up a child.

Trust me no way she retires if she is unbeaten and wins a 3rd...Anyway her indoors says she wants a new Honda Civic if she does pull it off so I will end up with enough for a pizza if she does pull it off :lol:
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Gauloise, Brampton Belle, Telmesomethinggirl, Minella Melody, La Prima Donna, Belle Metal, Heia, Felicidad, Brave Way, I'm making that more than 2 other horses. Notable that these are all mares as were La Sorelita, Elfile and Edene D'arc who all raced for him in the past couple of seasons. He is assembling a right band of broodmares and I wouldn't count on Honeysuckle being in training next season never mind the one after.
 
You are probably right but the way I look at it is if he thinks she can win another 3 or 4 Grade 1's at the age of 10 he can invest another 1/2 million into his business That is one massive incentive
 
Alexander also has an interest in breeding and when asked if one day he may race progeny out of Honeysuckle, he said: “Definitely. Maybe not all of them because the numbers can get out of control, but I’ll certainly race the fillies for sure. The geldings I think I’ll maybe have to sell them.

“Honeysuckle is obviously the main one, the best one by a long way but I’ve got quite a few other good mares. I don’t breed from them all because the numbers can get out of control but if they deliver on the track, I will breed from them.

“All the ones I’ve bred so far that have hit the track have won so it’s good fun and we’ll see what the future brings. I’ve got plenty of young ones that I’ve bred that hopefully might be quite good in the future. I doubt I’ve got one as good as her [Honeysuckle] but it doesn’t matter.”

https://theownerbreeder.com/news/th...vels-in-honeysuckles-champion-hurdle-success/
 
Cheers for That we learn something new everyday, but nothing alters the fact none of his mares were earning 500K a year at that sort of figure he'd have to be mad to retire her while she is still in good form
 
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Tanlic said:
Cheers for That we learn something new everyday, but nothing alters the fact none of his mares were earning 500K a year at that sort of figure he'd have to be mad to retire her while she is still in good form
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He will obviously have to balance the risk of significant future earnings as a broodmare, against sending her to the racecourse 4-5 times a season for the next 3 years. The no-brainer option is the former - once she's done enough on the racecourse (which might be two or possibly three Champion Hurdles, but seems unlikely to be four).

Out of interest, what price did you get for 4 Champion Hurdle wins?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I pinched them from the ATR results site but they suggest the 2m race was evenly run whereas the handicap was strongly run.
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I must be missing something, DO, and would be grateful if you (or anyone else really), could enlighten me.

The simple logic I apply in my head is as follows:

If top-class, Grade 1-level 2-milers have gone an even pace, then surely their finishing sectionals should be a lot (I mean a LOT) quicker, than handicappers running over 2m5f where the first two miles has been strongly-run. To me, it's completely counter-intuitive that the handicappers would be finishing more quickly than the Grade 1 2-milers who have gone a more neutral gallop.

Where am I going wrong?
 
Tanlic said:
Cheers for That we learn something new everyday, but nothing alters the fact none of his mares were earning 500K a year at that sort of figure he'd have to be mad to retire her while she is still in good form
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I'd say he's got £50 million in the bank. He won't be too worried about 500k prize money.
 
I'm not sure you are going wrong, GH. I often find myself struggling to agree with sectional data (or at least the conclusions gleaned from them), especially the 'pace maps' published in the format they use at ATR.

Maybe Prufrock, if he visits here, can enlighten us.

When I looked at the graphics last night, I was surprised to see that they were suggesting an even pace in the 2-miler. I can only conclude that - and obviously it's only my untrained interpretation - the fact the pace held up until late in the race has led their algorithms to come up with an overall 'even pace'.

I do, however, believe the 2m5f race on the card might be exceptionally strong, at least for the first two.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I reckon people who have £50m in the bank have it because they worry about £500k!
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I think we're back to the old Wilde adage about a cynic knowing the price of everything but the value of nothing. To keep the mare running and put your name into indelible history surely must outweigh a couple of breeding cycles? Think Jim Lewis, Anne Duchess of Westminster or Dorothy Paget - all part of NH history still because of the horses they owned. Otherwise, unknown.
 
Slim said:
"With this in mind, can those that have suggested Energumene should be re-routed to the Ryanair Chase kindly throw that depressingly defeatist suggestion into the bin."

Indeed!
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And the same people also bemoan intermediate trips as a folly

Round 1 over, bring on round 2
 
Shishkin 177 is higher than Altior 175 was rated after beating Min by 7 lengths in the QMCC.

Not saying it's right or wrong but it just goes to show how predictable the h'capper is. Win a Group 1 and you are going up no matter what.

My take on ratings is they are robotized

I just hope we don't get to the Voy Por Ustedes/ Master Minded situation

to refresh your memories VPU won the Desert Orcid beateing a ery moderate 150's horse in Oneway

He then wind an even worse QMCC but the handicapper sees fit to raise him 7lbs to 169.

Over 2 miles it turned out he had in fact achieved very little and was a much better horse over longer trips and ended up on a deserves 173

However over 2 miles in the QMCC renewal along comes Master Minded and kicks him into tough and by the following Tuesady is rated Higher Than both Gold Cup winners and everything else going Kauto Star and Denman.

That is why I have no real interest in OR's any more.

I just feel I can look at a horse not have a clue what his rating is and compare him to others without someone throwing a bunch of meaningless numbers at me.
 
I've run the last two miles of the handicap alongside the Clarence House from what is the first fence in the latter, the fifth in the former.

The ATR graphic says the handicap was strongly run but you'd expect two-milers to go faster anyway.

And they did, although there were several sections (I measured them as the leader was astride the fence) where the handicap was run at the same pace. It might be fair to conclude that Energumene was not going over-fast at those stages.

The G1 race gained a total of seven seconds, around 40 lengths, over the handicappers. The first four seconds (about 24 lengths) were gained over the first five fences and thereafter they went pretty much the exact same speed until after four out, gaining those extra three seconds from there to the line.

That would suggest they went off at a good pace then held it for the middle section before quickening again from four out.

It would also suggest Townend judged the pace very well.

(And I still believe the handicap form is very strong, plus I'll be marking up Fanion D'Estruval as he appeared to do a lot in pressing for home for four out and would have won impressively if Phoenix Way, who got a much more conservative ride, hadn't been there.)
 
Forgive my ignorance, but is it legit to compare the races in this way, when the handicappers have already gone a half-mile and more?
 
It's something I sometimes do to get a handle on either race, usually Irish races and usually races over the same CD on the same card but sometimes it can offer insight into races over other differing trips.

While it's obvious that the overall pace in races over longer trips will be slower, at Standard Times, the difference is marginal in terms of lengths per second; it's the aggregation of the marginals that makes the overall difference.

For example, based on RP Standard Times, it takes 0.065s to cover a yard at 2m and 0.067s at 2m5f. That works out at around 4.4 seconds per mile - more than 25 lengths - and about 50 lengths for 2 miles. So when the two fields run extended sections at the same speed, one of them is probably going too fast or too slow.
 
Another poor effort from a Nicholls horse. CPS looked good but Dunvegan closer than I expected


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happy to see that from Chacun, want as much juice as possible in the Shishkin price for the Queen Mum
 
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