2 Mile Chasers 21/22

What I don't understand about this race is the assumption that Shiskin won't make the same jumping mistakes again, my view of it is that he made the mistakes at Ascot as a result of been taking out of his comfort zone and if Chacun is ridden the way he should have been last year he is very likely to repeat those mistakes.

I still think he is the most likely winner but the market is just wrong.
 
People are making too much of the mistake he made at Ascot. All he did was peck on landing early in the race.
The pace was pretty normal between 28mph and 31mph and he was going well within himself and under no presssure.
You can rfresh your memory, the race is there for anyone to see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6088w8Sqnw&t=203s

His problems are he hits a flat spot just about every time he runs and he tends to jump slightly left at some fences

As Cheltenham is left handed he shouldn't have a problem there but if one of the Irish pair sets a slow pace then suddenly steps on the gas at the top of the hill
the sudden injection of pace might catch Shishkin out and one of them could be home and hosed before he gets going.

However looking back at his Arkle he took a leaf out of Sprinters book and he was the one who went early
and flew down the hill hitting 35pmh and won by 10 lengths ..as an odds on shot should.

Ofcourse the opposition is much tougher and Nico will have to keep tabs on them both which is easier said than done
IMO he has got to be challenging for the lead as far as 3 out and be hitting top gear.

If he tries to be clever and hold him up until before the last he will be at risk of beaing beaten.

As far as the market goes I agree it's all wrong and it's a safe bet you'll get evens on the day.
once we know all 3 run with the weight of Irish money coming into play..
 
Shishkin is bred to stay a lot further check it out.

Energumene is very one paced in comparison.

Shishkin gave him a start last time and still beat him...

I trust what Willie said about Chacun Pour Soi as it's common knowledge from several different sources.
Aw; you trust Willie when it suits your perspective, yet most of the forum,seemingly, wouldn't ask him for the time of day.
I hope there'll be a proper pace in the race, as Energumene will get the tow he requires, and Shishkin will, again be found wanting.
 
I trust Nicky Henderson when he said Shishkin is no banker for this.

Captain Guiness did Chacun Pour Soi's form no harm when he won the other day at Naas

He finished 17 lengths behind Chacun in the Dublin and 13 lengths behind Shishkin in the Arkle

Chacun only finished a length in front of Gruaneteen in last years QMCC. I don't think anyone thinks he was at his best that day and something was amiss.
and it wasn't the hill.
There may not be as much between Shishkin and him as the betting suggests and if it wasn't for his mishap at Sandown
a poor run, which he has corrected since, he'd be half his current odds.

I think Willie has every right to fancy Chacun Pour Soi he looked awesome in the Dublin Chase and if he turns up
in that form he'll be extremely hard to beat.

The one advantage Enegumene might have is the race is a furlong shorter than Ascot but I think the downhill run will
allow Shishkin to get very close to him and the hill is much more in his favour.

I am not confident but I did back Shishkin @11/10 for this just before Ascot, if you recall, I just think Nicky has it spot on.... he's no banker.
 
Aw; you trust Willie when it suits your perspective, yet most of the forum,seemingly, wouldn't ask him for the time of day.
I hope there'll be a proper pace in the race, as Energumene will get the tow he requires, and Shishkin will, again be found wanting.

You’ll need to explain to me about those other times Shishkin has been “found wanting”, reet.
 
I trust Nicky Henderson when he said Shishkin is no banker for this.

Captain Guiness did Chacun Pour Soi's form no harm when he won the other day at Naas

He finished 17 lengths behind Chacun in the Dublin and 13 lengths behind Shishkin in the Arkle

Chacun only finished a length in front of Gruaneteen in last years QMCC. I don't think anyone thinks he was at his best that day and something was amiss.
and it wasn't the hill.
There may not be as much between Shishkin and him as the betting suggests and if it wasn't for his mishap at Sandown
a poor run, which he has corrected since, he'd be half his current odds.

I think Willie has every right to fancy Chacun Pour Soi he looked awesome in the Dublin Chase and if he turns up
in that form he'll be extremely hard to beat.

The one advantage Enegumene might have is the race is a furlong shorter than Ascot but I think the downhill run will
allow Shishkin to get very close to him and the hill is much more in his favour.

I am not confident but I did back Shishkin @11/10 for this just before Ascot, if you recall, I just think Nicky has it spot on.... he's no banker.

A few pages back you dismissed Captain Guiness as an “ordinary” animal, when I used him to place Shishkin/Energumene’s level in some sort of context.

Now you’re using the same horse to prop-up an argument for Chacun Pour Soi.

It’s this sort of inconsistency which sometimes makes your arguments fall flat on their arse.

The other thing worth bearing in mind is that Shishkin has blatantly improved since the Arkle - probably by the best part of a stone.
 
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What I don't understand about this race is the assumption that Shiskin won't make the same jumping mistakes again, my view of it is that he made the mistakes at Ascot as a result of been taking out of his comfort zone and if Chacun is ridden the way he should have been last year he is very likely to repeat those mistakes.

I still think he is the most likely winner but the market is just wrong.

Shishkin’s “jumping errors” are an example groupthink, imo. It keeps being repeated, and people have started to believe it.

He pecked once at Ascot (after jumping the fence perfectly fine), and was otherwise pretty-much blemish free - save for going slightly to his left. I’d have absolutely no worries about his jumping in the QMCC.
 
You’ll need to explain to me about those other times Shishkin has been “found wanting”, reet.
Just the last run, Grass, where he was struggling behind Energ. until the latter went on too quickly for his own good. You'd imagine there'll be more than one horse to test his jumping in the QMCC, should he actually run.
 
Think you're trying to have it both ways here, reet.

If Shishkin was "struggling" (not a definition I would agree with) because Energumene was going too fast in Ascot, then it's surely logical that he will "struggle" less, if Energumene goes a steadier gallop, no?

As for the jumping concerns, see my previous post. I don't have any where Shishkin is concerned, and far too much is being made of what happened at Ascot.

For me, the only potential chink in Shishkin's armour, is if the race is allowed to be run at a crawl, and turns into a sprint-finish. Not because he lacks basic speed, but rather because he takes a little time to go through the gears. This is often (imo) erroneously called his 'flat-spot', which I think is just as misleading as his alleged jumping flaws. If it turns into a sprint, then he may be a little vulnerable to something which has more instant accelaration.......but it's not like connections don't know this, and I can' imagine they would allow the race to develop in this manner. If it looked like it was heading that way, I'd like to think Nico would show enough confidence in the horse, to take the race by the scruff of the neck, and boot Shishkin on, and challenge them to go get him. All that said, I can't see it developing that way, as a crawl-dash affair wouldn't suit Energumene or CPS, both off whom also want it to be true-run. It's like I said earlier in the thread - I think it's hard to see how you beat Shishkin tactically.

If all three make it, all we can hope for is a race that's as thrilling as the Clarence House was, and may the best horse win.
 
Just the last run, Grass, where he was struggling behind Energ. until the latter went on too quickly for his own good. You'd imagine there'll be more than one horse to test his jumping in the QMCC, should he actually run.

The other interpretation, reet, ….. oops, what grassy has just said. :)
 
Grassy seems to be suffering the same fixation; that Shishkin is the better stayer. I don't see it like that. He got lucky in the Clarence House in that Engi used his energy too early, on the uphill part of the course, and Shishkin - due to his dithering earlier - was around to pick up the pieces.
 
I don't think I'm "suffering" from anything, reet - let along being fixated with it.

I've asked a legit question, which you haven't yet answered. If Energumene goes a steadier pace at Cheltenham than he did at Ascot, then it's logical that Shishkin's "struggles" to keep-up with Energumene will be less evident - yes or no?

Think you're also being rather rude about a truly top-class racehorse; rattling on about him being lucky, dithering, being found wanting etc......with exceedingly thin evidence to back-up those statements. It sounds a bit like pocket-talk, which wouldn't be your usual style - what you got against the poor animal?
 
I don't think I'm "suffering" from anything, reet - let along being fixated with it.

I've asked a legit question, which you haven't yet answered. If Energumene goes a steadier pace at Cheltenham than he did at Ascot, then it's logical that Shishkin's "struggles" to keep-up with Energumene will be less evident - yes or no?

The only bit this question doesn't really address or understand is that if Energemene does go a steadier pace, he himself also conserves more energy, and around a completely different track, means that going this steadier pace, would allow him to have more to give in a finish.

Or put in a slightly different way, Shishkin got up very late the last day by a length precisely because of the gallop set by Energemene.

IF Energemene can dictate a slower gallop around a different track like Cheltenham he might not get caught this time.

Whether that means Shishkin should try and make the running is up for debate.
 
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When you take a 2 miler out of his natural inclination and try to slow him down you slit his throat

There can surely be no doubts that Shishkin will stay further?
 
The only bit this question doesn't really address or understand is that if Energemene does go a steadier pace, he himself also conserves more energy, and around a completely different track, means that going this steadier pace, would allow him to have more to give in a finish.

Or put in a slightly different way, Shishkin got up very late the last day by a length precisely because of the gallop set by Energemene.

IF Energemene can dictate a slower gallop around a different track like Cheltenham he might not get caught this time.

Whether that means Shishkin should try and make the running is up for debate.

As a general point, I think that's fair comment. I for one am certainly not writing Energumene off in this Champion Chase. He has obvious claims - assuming he gets there.
 
When you take a 2 miler out of his natural inclination and try to slow him down you slit his throat

There can surely be no doubts that Shishkin will stay further?

Yes but that is part of my point.

If Shishkin does stay further perhaps they should make the running next week to fully exploit this?
 
When you take a 2 miler out of his natural inclination and try to slow him down you slit his throat

There can surely be no doubts that Shishkin will stay further?

Also think this is fair comment too.

Shishkin certainly stays further....as does Energumene (latter possibly more proven in this regard, though I doubt there's much in it).
 
The only bit this question doesn't really address or understand is that if Energemene does go a steadier pace, he himself also conserves more energy, and around a completely different track, means that going this steadier pace, would allow him to have more to give in a finish.

Or put a different way, Shishkin got up very late the last day by a length precisely because of the gallop set by Energemene.

IF Energemene can dictate a slower gallop around a different track like Cheltenham he might not get caught this time.

Whether that means Shishkin should try and make the running is up for debate.

I think grassy quite well understands that, although he’s quite capable of speaking for himself ;). If Energumene sets a steadier pace isn’t he likely to have Shiskin closer to his tail when it comes to the final push? So, even if Energumene would have more to give in the finish Siskin would have far less to do in cutting him back. Go with the winner I say :)

Ooops, too late again. sorry.
 
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If Energumene sets a steadier pace then surely Politilogue won’t and while he may not have the class of the front three and is now 11, he’s too good for them to simply let get away.

No way is this race anything but truly run.
 
No way is this race anything but truly run.

Yes I think you are right there, Lee.

To Barjon- I think I'm with you, Grassy and most people that Shishkin does have the apparant edge although one length is not very far especially at a different time of year around a different track.

Therefore jockeyship could be everything especially in terms of the fractions they all go in the different parts of the race, imho.

Who will be riding them again? :)
 
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I don't think I'm "suffering" from anything, reet - let along being fixated with it.

I've asked a legit question, which you haven't yet answered. If Energumene goes a steadier pace at Cheltenham than he did at Ascot, then it's logical that Shishkin's "struggles" to keep-up with Energumene will be less evident - yes or no?

Think you're also being rather rude about a truly top-class racehorse; rattling on about him being lucky, dithering, being found wanting etc......with exceedingly thin evidence to back-up those statements. It sounds a bit like pocket-talk, which wouldn't be your usual style - what you got against the poor animal?
The evidence is all there on the replay, Grass. Think it was Cattermole who said Shishkin was under pressure from 4 out. Hope and pray there's a proper championship pace, and that Engi gets a more judicious ride.
My pocket says nothing, which is exactly what I've bet on the race, nor will I, until I've seen the field, and figured the likely pace.
 
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