2 Year olds 2009

Chapple-Hyam expects a big run from his pair, O'Brien expects a big run from his. Dunlop thinks his will run well. A pattern emerging?
 
SNA woefully underpriced - I can't figure his price out, other than people backing the trainer; I'd rather back both Elusive Pimpernel and Shakesperean at current prices. Al Zir could be anything, but I can't imagine further rain would suit.
 
Hamm said:
SNA woefully underpriced - I can't figure his price out, other than people backing the trainer;
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....he's a good trainer but I don't think Aidan has the speed, no, I'm gonna stick with the horse but if he gets beaten close up I'll still back him for the Derby... SNA that is :blink:


Coat !
 
SteveM said:
The difference is that I think Johnston's expections will count for something here.
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I agree; not that the word of the trainer is needed, but Johnston seems sure Shakespearean is quite a bit better than Layali Al Andalus.

The prices for the RP Trophy seem plain wrong.
 
Sheikh said:
....he's a good trainer but I don't think Aidan has the speed, no, I'm gonna stick with the horse but if he gets beaten close up I'll still back him for the Derby... SNA that is :blink:


Coat !
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At least you said it! :D
 
beardo said:
what im saying is that if a horse wins the RP trophy why does it necessarily mean it isn't a guineas horse for next year.
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It depends on the type of horse. Unless the ground changes totally, I intend to back Elusive Pimpernel on Saturday as he will clearly be well suited by the step up in trip. However, his York run strongly suggests that he will not have the pace to win a Guineas. On the other hand, I've no doubt Motivator, for one, would have been capable of winning or going close in a Guineas had his trainer taken that option.
 
I'm not sure Shakespearean's Curragh form is anything to write home about. Plenty of those close in behind have been well stuffed since. He was brave that day and battled well when it looked like he was about to be swallowed up but I wouldn't be rushing to back him on Saturday.
 
Hamm said:
SNA woefully underpriced - I can't figure his price out, other than people backing the trainer; I'd rather back both Elusive Pimpernel and Shakesperean at current prices. Al Zir could be anything, but I can't imagine further rain would suit.
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Quoting a woefully short Ballydoyle runner seems to be your theme over the season....Rip Van Winkle, Steinbeck, Fame And Glory etc. Granted they have not always won but they have easily out run the prices you have suggested they should run to.

The yard has won the Royal Lodge, three out of the first four home in the Dewhurst and has a good line on the Elusive Pimpernel and Shakesperean form via stablemates.

What price should the bookies put SNA in at? 9/4 is not that short.
 
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Think there will be alot of pace to this race. If the ground goes soft could turn into a real war of attrition
 
beardo said:
You're answering your own question his 2 runs over a further distance didnt produce any significant result. His best performances were over 7f and 1m. I'm not suggesting he would have won the guineas but what im saying is that if a horse wins the RP trophy why does it necessarily mean it isn't a guineas horse for next year. Just think trainers over complicate things and try and push horses into distances and ignore the obvious.
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I haven't at all answered my own question. Yes, Crowded House's best performances were over 7f and 1m, but that was at two years old! That doesn't mean to say that he is a miler, especially when he is bred to want further. He is by Rainbow Quest out of an unraced mare, most of whose progeny have been winning over 1m1f and further. His full brother only won at 1m3f also.
 
I've been really impressed with St Nicholas Abbey. He quickened really well in the Beresford and I think that it is going to take a really good colt to beat him.
 
Galileo said:
Quoting a woefully short Ballydoyle runner seems to be your theme over the season....Rip Van Winkle, Steinbeck, Fame And Glory etc. Granted they have not always won but they have easily out run the prices you have suggested they should run to.
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You're right. It is a theme, and a very profitable one, wouldn't you say? Laying these three (even not allowing for the fact I changed tune about Rip after the Eclipse) in Group 1s leads to a very healthy profit.

I don't think you're highlighting this, but I'm against them as they've been too short, and the results seem to have proven this.
 
It's alright 'having a line' on these horses, as long as you've got the horse at home to beat it. O'Brien had more lines than Fallon on Sea The Stars but still couldn't see him for dust.
 
The other point to make is that O'Brien would run his horses regardless. He's proven that several times already this season.

I really like Elusive Pimpernel and the York form is rock solid. However, I also think that if the race was run again you would get a different result. In fact I think the front three are all of pretty similar ability. On that premise I think he will need to improve to win. Same applies to Al Zir and Co-ordinated cut. I doubt i'll have more than a small interest in this race.
 
Shadow Leader said:
I haven't at all answered my own question. Yes, Crowded House's best performances were over 7f and 1m, but that was at two years old! That doesn't mean to say that he is a miler, especially when he is bred to want further. He is by Rainbow Quest out of an unraced mare, most of whose progeny have been winning over 1m1f and further. His full brother only won at 1m3f also.
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Im bred to be able to sprint but im as slow as a slug. My point is trainers sometimes over elaborate with these 2 year olds that give their best performance over a mile and decide they want a trip. Therefore missing the guineas when the horse has a great chance.
 
Hamm said:
You're right. It is a theme, and a very profitable one, wouldn't you say? Laying these three (even not allowing for the fact I changed tune about Rip after the Eclipse) in Group 1s leads to a very healthy profit.

I don't think you're highlighting this, but I'm against them as they've been too short, and the results seem to have proven this.
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You are missing my point - you keep going on about them being woefully short when in truth they more than run up to their prices. Rip Van Winkle in the Guineas you were saying deserved to be a 20/1 plus shot when he ran to his price with a close up fourth. Steinbeck ran a cracker in the Dewhurst - not winning but more than justifying his price. I have not said SNA is going to win, but before every race you seem to come out with "the Ballydoyle horse is much too short" arguement when more often than not they run a race in line with their price.

What price should SNA be?
 
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Galileo said:
You are missing my point - you keep going on about them being woefully short when in truth they more than run up to their prices. Rip Van Winkle in the Guineas you were saying deserved to be a 20/1 plus shot when he ran to his price with a close up fourth. Steinbeck ran a cracker in the Dewhurst - not winning but more than justifying his price. I have not said SNA is going to win, but before every race you seem to come out with "the Ballydoyle horse is much too short" arguement when more often than not they run a race in line with their price.

What price should SNA be?
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There shouldn't be much between SNA and Elusive Pimpernel. The Acomb form (where he seemed to struggle a little on the ground) couldn't have worked out better.

They haven't run up to their prices, as laying them shows a healthy profit.

I did say that about RVW, as I have no interest in how good a horse is according to whispers. He hadn't done it at the time, didn't look to me like he would do it (in the Guineas) and should easily have been a double figure price.

I'll be even more broke than now if I listen to how good a certain horse is 'supposed' to be. :D
 
Hamm said:
There shouldn't be much between SNA and Elusive Pimpernel. The Acomb form (where he seemed to struggle a little on the ground) couldn't have worked out better.

They haven't run up to their prices, as laying them shows a healthy profit.

I did say that about RVW, as I have no interest in how good a horse is according to whispers. He hadn't done it at the time, didn't look to me like he would do it (in the Guineas) and should easily have been a double figure price.

I'll be even more broke than now if I listen to how good a certain horse is 'supposed' to be. :D
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SNA is 9/4 with Elusive Pimpernel at 7/2....I would not call that a huge difference.

While the Acomb form looks good enough...all that have come out of it have actually been well enough beaten in Group 1s since then.
 
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