2 Year olds 2009

Desert Orchid said:
The more I look at Elusive Pimpernel the more I like it as a Derby prospect. I might dabble in the a/p market before tomorrow's race.
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The awd of Elusive Qualtiy (7.9f) doesn't scream Derby winner but there seems to be plenty of stamina on the dam's side. Also EQ's middle distance progeny have fared well with a bigger percentage of winners from the few who've been tried beyond 11f than of those at shorter distances.
 
I've looked at this race in more detail, and still like Shakespearean each way, but Al Zir is now my main bet. Could be a monster.
 
Hamm said:
Thanks for the reminder :)
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I think Shakespearean’s price is huge, when talking about the race earlier this week I imagined he would be marked up at about 5/1. When I saw the 14s I nearly fell over. Needless to say I'm on. He is a very resolute type that may turn out to be an excellent yardstick – i.e. anything that gets past him could be very good indeed. The perception is that he wants good/firm which is probably why he is drifting a bit. However, I’m sure he won’t mind a bit of juice and Johnston seems well keen on him (as am I).

It might be worth reflecting that Eagle Mountain was odd-on for this and finished just out of the frame to Authorized at 25/1 (he drifted to that price after being available at 16s before the race). Chapple-Hyam said he thought he had a good price at 16s (the 25s was even better!)
 
Yes, I meant to reply earlier to say it was you who indeed alerted to me to Shakesperian. He's more than a fair price, regardless of how the race turns out. Good luck tomorrow.

If there is a superstar in the race, it could be AL Zir, and at 6 and 17 on the machine, nothing stopping one backing both.
 
Hamm said:
Yes, I meant to reply earlier to say it was you who indeed alerted to me to Shakesperian. He's more than a fair price, regardless of how the race turns out. Good luck tomorrow.

If there is a superstar in the race, it could be AL Zir, and at 6 and 17 on the machine, nothing stopping one backing both.
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You might well be right. There are a handful here that could be really decent. All I'm saying about Shakespearean is that there is nothing wrong with him. He is bomb proof from running great race. I'd expect him to hit 110.

There may of course be a real superstar in the field. All I'm saying is that if they can beat Shakespearean they'll deserve it. People talk a lot of nonsense about value. Often a big price is no value at all. I'm suggesting this big price is value.
 
RP Trophy

Fascinating contest in prospect tomorrow, a far better race (for a change) than the Dewhurst and the market looks all wrong to me. Plenty of AOB's have got beat in this and St Nicholas is too short.

Elusive Pimpernel has the best form going into the race. Poet's Voice gave it a huge boost with his run in the Middle Park despite dropping down in trip and not really having the speed. Reading up on the race a few people have question marks about the ground but the horse is a fair size and his damsire is Sadler's Wells - so that gives me hope that he'll act on it. Should touch 5s if the fav is punted. I respect the Godolphin animal but can't be backing there's anymore. Anyone fancy any of the outsiders?
 
The ground could turn quite soft - I am not sure that will suit the dirt bred Al Zir. The vibes are very strong this evening for St Nicholas Abbey....what was that stat that was shown when Mount Nelson won the Eclipse - the stat when Aidan O'Brien only runs one horse in a Group 1?
 
I think the race deserves a thread of it's own. It's the first time i've looked at this one.
Mount Nelson's Eclipse may have been the worst ever renewal of that contest - this is a very strong running tomorrow. Whether that's relevent or not I don't know.
 
Euronymous said:
I think the race deserves a thread of it's own. It's the first time i've looked at this one.
Mount Nelson's Eclipse may have been the worst ever renewal of that contest - this is a very strong running tomorrow. Whether that's relevent or not I don't know.
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This is what I was referring to...

In the last five seasons there have been 122 occasions when O'Brien has sent just one runner to a Group 1 or Group 2 staged in Britain and Ireland, and the record of those who started at 4-1 or shorter is a superb 21 wins from 39 runners (54% strike-rate).

Think this stat is an old one from last year...Rip Van Winkle added to it this season.
 
SteveM said:
All I'm saying about Shakespearean is that there is nothing wrong with him. He is bomb proof from running great race. I'd expect him to hit 110.
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I'd say that was rather unambitious.

I already have him on 111 but I reckon it might take at least 120 to win tomorrow.
 
I was very impressed with St Nicholas Abbey last time and see only Elusive Pimpernel as a real danger .
 
Of the outsiders, it would have to be Musaafer for me. Big step up in class but Jarvis doesnt overface his.
 
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