2 Year olds 2009

He was also beaten in both his second and third starts in France, so today not exaclty a shock in one regard.

The thing that confuses me is they seem unwilling to step up any number of impressive maiden winners, and instead rely on the likes of Buzzword and Vale of York time and again, who, while useful, are patently not top class. Okay, based on the available evidence the others may not be either, but they are well bred, impressive maiden winners - why not step them up and sort out a pecking order for next year?

Contrast this with Ballydoyle who in many cases will run several two year old and they know exactly where they stand with their horses (where possible) come the end of the year.
 
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Maybe you were looking on Sporting Life where they often do not list the French form?

Anyway, your point still holds on Godolphin.
 
Guineas picture looks pretty muddled right now....do not know how on earth Canford Cliffs is co-favourite (outright in some places) for this race. The Ballydoyle colts Fencing Master, Steinbeck, Cape Blanco and Arcano look by far the most interesting of those at the head of the market. I like Elusive Pimpernel but I do not like that he is going a mile already.
 
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I think Steinbeck is definitely the horse to take out of the Dewhurst, for all that the form will be crabbed because Beethoven won, the horse was wearing headgear for the first time and its quite reasonable to assume this was a one off decent effort. The time was okay enough and I think Steinbeck was running more for the experience than anything. Could be next years Rip Van Winkle type. I'm loathe to having money tied up for so long but I'm considering taking the 16s available with totesport or Hills for the Guineas. That said I am a big Arcano fan, but Steinbeck is arguably open to further progress.
 
Galileo said:
Guineas picture looks pretty muddled right now....do not know how on earth Canford Cliffs is co-favourite (outright in some places) for this race. The Ballydoyle colts Fencing Master, Steinbeck, Cape Blanco and Arcano look by far the most interesting of those at the head of the market. I like Elusive Pimpernel but I do not like that he is going a mile already.
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Previous liabilities and the thrashing he gave a horse that Ballydoyle's pair could only beat a matter of heads perhaps ? When interviewed at Newbury Hughes was plain that CC was not right in the Morny yet still managed to get close to Arcano and Special Duty.
 
Hamm said:
He was also beaten in both his second and third starts in France, so today not exaclty a shock in one regard.

The thing that confuses me is they seem unwilling to step up any number of impressive maiden winners, and instead rely on the likes of Buzzword and Vale of York time and again, who, while useful, are patently not top class. Okay, based on the available evidence the others may not be either, but they are well bred, impressive maiden winners - why not step them up and sort out a pecking order for next year?

Contrast this with Ballydoyle who in many cases will run several two year old and they know exactly where they stand with their horses (where possible) come the end of the year.
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Massive injustice to Vale Of York there. He has improved with each run and whilst some don't feel he was unlucky at Ascot, any horse which is hampered a furlong out will lose the momentum to give it any chance of winning. He came from a long way back to grab 2nd in Rome last week in a group 1, so I really wouldn't be dismissing this horse. It looks as if Al Zir will go for the Racing Post, but if they allow Vale Of York in as a second string don't be surprised to see him collect.

Mendip is one I would have liked to have seen allowed to step up to the fore personally, whilst Sahara Kingdom will probably end up their number one for the Guineas. He is a proper horse who shouldn't run again this year but should reappear in a Guineas trial somewhere.

Vale Of York has been 2nd in a group 2 and a group 1, beating some high class horses, yet for some unknown reason Hamm you seem to diss his credentials to run in group 1 races ?

The more backward horses have needed time that's why they haven't been stepped up. Several are too weak, if you run horses in classes they are not ready to you will ruin them.

I must say I haven't seen anything outstanding from the O'Brien yard this year, and would take a lot of Godolphin's not good enough types as you put it against them. For Beethoven a thoroughly exposed horse who has not been good enough on plenty of occasions to win the Dewhurst shows me what a weak race that was yesterday.

The one's talked up by the O'Brien men really haven't come out firing so I think Godolphin are quite happy to keep the trump cards under their hat for now.
 
To be honest, apart from Canford Cliffs early on, I've not been too impressed with this years 2 year olds. Normally I would have had a couple of Ante Post bets before the Dewhurst, but I've not even had one now.
I may revert to an old strategy of mine: take a look at Oddschecker and if all the bookies have a horse round about 12/1 to 16/1, and 40 upwards is available on Betfair, take that price for small money. The thinking behind this is that if all the bookies have it priced, chances are that it will run and be shorter on the day.
 
Canford Cliffs won't stay a mile, beat 7 furlong/mile horses over 6 furlongs in the Coventry, was beaten on merit (although running a good race) in the Morny and has had problems meaning he missed the rest of the season. Coupled all these with the theory that he is just a very mature two year old who is likely to be caught up next year (if not already) then I think 8/1 or 10/1 is terrible value for the horse.

I have little doubt there will be top class three year olds emerging from the Dewhurst and other races.
 
A nice unbeaten colt out of Kazzia running for Godolphin in France today. With Planteur out, my one against the field would be Kartica though.
 
How can you say he was beaten on merit in the morny as if it was an established fact? The jockey is plain he was never going
 
Galileo - in that sense, I presume you are writing off Steinbeck (and perhaps even Fencing Master) as they were both beaten on merit, and we have not heard from Murtagh or O'Donoghue that neither of their horse's weren't travelling.
 
I was very impressed with Fencing Master though I would see him staying more than a mile next year.

Steinbeck's run after a five month absence was top notch in my view and looks a real miler in the making.
 
Flame said:
Massive injustice to Vale Of York there. He has improved with each run and whilst some don't feel he was unlucky at Ascot, any horse which is hampered a furlong out will lose the momentum to give it any chance of winning. He came from a long way back to grab 2nd in Rome last week in a group 1, so I really wouldn't be dismissing this horse. It looks as if Al Zir will go for the Racing Post, but if they allow Vale Of York in as a second string don't be surprised to see him collect.

Mendip is one I would have liked to have seen allowed to step up to the fore personally, whilst Sahara Kingdom will probably end up their number one for the Guineas. He is a proper horse who shouldn't run again this year but should reappear in a Guineas trial somewhere.

Vale Of York has been 2nd in a group 2 and a group 1, beating some high class horses, yet for some unknown reason Hamm you seem to diss his credentials to run in group 1 races ?

The more backward horses have needed time that's why they haven't been stepped up. Several are too weak, if you run horses in classes they are not ready to you will ruin them.

I must say I haven't seen anything outstanding from the O'Brien yard this year, and would take a lot of Godolphin's not good enough types as you put it against them. For Beethoven a thoroughly exposed horse who has not been good enough on plenty of occasions to win the Dewhurst shows me what a weak race that was yesterday.

The one's talked up by the O'Brien men really haven't come out firing so I think Godolphin are quite happy to keep the trump cards under their hat for now.
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Chris, you needn't take this personally!

I have really enjoyed the fact that Godolphin have had a lot of promising 2 year olds, and feel it has added something to the season, but this has been tempered somewhat by the purchases of anything that's run in a half decent race. I still hold high hopes for Poet's Voice, for example. However, Vale of York is, imho, not top class nor will he ever be. He has had 5 runs, and his best TF figure is 110, without a + or p. I would agree with that, and suggest he may well win a Group 3 next year, or better if campaigned abroad. However, there doesn't appear to be masses of improvement left to come from him.

My comment about horses who haven't done well after maidens is based on those who have done just that, and not an opinion on what is to come; for example, Zeitoper looks like he'll do well over middle distances next year and with a better pace after his win in France today.
 
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Hamm said:
Galileo - in that sense, I presume you are writing off Steinbeck (and perhaps even Fencing Master) as they were both beaten on merit, and we have not heard from Murtagh or O'Donoghue that neither of their horse's weren't travelling.
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A pretty odd comparison....like apples and oranges. One horse (Canford Cliffs) was trained to the minute on the back of two recent outings and is bred to be a proper two year old sprinter. The jockey says he was not right - I personally think he was just beat by two better horses one of which is certain to relish the step up in trip and progress as a three year old.

Meanwhile Fencing Master runs as green as grass for the first three furlongs, carrys plenty of condition in the parade ring, just one start at Dundalk while Steinbeck come into his Group 1 off one run, a long absence and had to make the running.

I know which horses I would be looking to the future (particularly given how the respective trainers bring on their horses) even more so given that Steinbeck can be backed at 16/1, Fencing Master at 20/1 and Canford Cliffs at 10/1...
 
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