2000 Guineas

Originally posted by Bar the Bull@May 1 2008, 10:45 AM
I am well aware that there are often big priced horses pop up in this race.

I am well aware that this post will likely come back to haunt me.

But the following horses are dead wood and should have no business in the Guineas:

Bahamian Kid (beaten miles in a maiden)
Stubbs Art (5th in a handicap off 87)
Scintillo (9th in the Craven and not up to much as a 2yo)
Dream Eater (won a substandard sales race and exposed as being a listed animal in all his runs apart from that)
Aflfathaa (5th in a poor Royal Lodge)
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I agree, especially with reference to the first 2 named. Does there need to be a rating threshold? The Guineas shouldn't be used to indulge certain owners wishes to have a big day out. I wouldn't find it at all funny if one of these horses interfered with a horse such as New Approach..
 
No RDLP i see. I`m not surprised, i was just hoping the Godolphin muppets would just see that the French Guineas is virtually Group 2 in quality and prestige. AOB only ever sends his backmarkers there.
 
Can't see too many of them pressing New Approach for the lead. Perhaps that might be the Plan for Kinane's mount if New Approach were to get an easy lead?
 
Alfathaa looks by far the most interesting of all the outsiders. His maiden win worked out really well and he ran a cracker in the Royal Lodge. Everything about him physically suggests he'll do very well from 2 to 3 and even if the Guineas comes too soon, he'll surely be holding his won in pattern company by the end of the season.
 
The information about blinkers for Ravens Pass appears to be erroneous. They certainly aren't declared on the racecard.
 
Good old BBC - minimium racing coverage, and that which they have to do to a very poor standard.
 
Newmarket clerk of the course Michael Prosser reports conditions to have dried up slightly ahead of the Guineas meeting.

Prosser was forced to change the official description to good, good to soft in places following rain on Wednesday but a drier day has seen an upturn in the ground.

He said: "Although we had one millimetre of rain about 2pm, it has been breezy and warmer than for the past two days and consequently the ground has dried out since yesterday.

"The going-stick reading is now 8.3 and I have now changed the official going description to good.
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:clap: :clap:
 
If the forecast is accurate, then the pushing out to 5/1 of Ravens Pass is an overreaction. Should be closer to 3's on good or faster.
 
I topped up at 7.6 last night. Covered on Ibn Khaldun also.

I have more staked on the two classics than i did on the whole of Cheltenham.

£120 on Raven`s Pass at an average price of 8.06/1
£80 lost on RDLP
£40 on Ibn Khaldun @ 6/1

£50 on Natagora at an average price of 8.4/1
£20 lost on Listen
 
It's been very wet here in Suffolk this week so the dip may be GS on the day if they have any more rain. They aren't expecting any more significant rain, but I'd be surprised if it's riding fast on Saturday

John Dunlop who has walked the course [yesterday I think] says the last two furlongs are riding quite a bit slower than the rest of the course, so that's something to bear in mind if you bet in running.
 
dunno about dunlop but john gosden was quoted as saying thesame in yesterdays rp. its still quite feasible itcould dry out and i dont think it would bean utter disaster for ravens pass if it stayed the same, after allhe still only came 2nd to new approach last time he tried softer ground
 
net access here is bsic, slow, restricted-no betfair- and the keypad is very hard to use! so apologies till back on the straight and narrow, should only be a day or2
 
cheer, euro! mind you thats nota million miles fromthe truth i guess.

im currently a residing guest of the royal berks hospital, be out soon though.
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@May 1 2008, 09:01 PM
If the forecast is accurate, then the pushing out to 5/1 of Ravens Pass is an overreaction. Should be closer to 3's on good or faster.
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DJ,
Do you think he needs it good to firm or will he be seen to best effect on genuinely good ground? I'm thinking the non-soft side of good should suffice.

At current prices, I am thinking this is a genuinely cracking bet.

I don't think Ibn Khaldun's form is quite good enough, and it also must be a worry how Godolphin have fared in recent times with shipping horses from Dubai.

I'm struggling to understand the prices of certain horses .. Perfect Stride? How is he 10/1? He was turned over at 1/4 at Leicester and would need to improve the best part of 2 stone. Likewise Henrythenavigator .. hardly a horse with a progressive profile, and until recently it was assumed Murtagh would ride Jupiter Pluvius. Stimulation is a promising colt but this may be a level or two above him.

Raven's Pass (each way) is the best value bet i have come across in some time at 9/2. The forecast is very much turning his way, and a nice warm day tomorrow will only help. It's difficult to ascertain has New approach trained on, as he had temperament issues at 2.
 
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