2000 Guineas
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From The Independent...
"Last night O'Brien cautioned that it was "by no means" certain that his new stable jockey, Johnny Murtagh, would ride that colt. Nothing would be decided until the horses had worked in midweek. O'Brien admitted that he could not be certain that Jupiter Pluvius, a son of Johannesburg, would stay a mile. "He's a big, powerful horse and we weren't even sure he would get the seven furlongs when he ran at Leopardstown last year," he said. "We asked Seamus Heffernan about the mile, and he said he thought he would get it, but these things are never guaranteed."
"Last night O'Brien cautioned that it was "by no means" certain that his new stable jockey, Johnny Murtagh, would ride that colt. Nothing would be decided until the horses had worked in midweek. O'Brien admitted that he could not be certain that Jupiter Pluvius, a son of Johannesburg, would stay a mile. "He's a big, powerful horse and we weren't even sure he would get the seven furlongs when he ran at Leopardstown last year," he said. "We asked Seamus Heffernan about the mile, and he said he thought he would get it, but these things are never guaranteed."
There was quite a bit of rain over my way [20 miles east of HQ] today, and they were certainly expecting it over there. The Clerk said yesterday they would water if it bypassed them. I certainly don't think we will get very fast ground, and I think they will do their damndest to make it Good. The weather in general has been intermittent sun and cloud cover, and very breezy. It must have dried out quite a bit this last week
Great trading Warbler!
I'm still pretty sure NA is the one to beat, based on yard confidence that he is the best they have had.
I think I'll go on Saturday, this looks a pretty good Guineas
Great trading Warbler!
I'm still pretty sure NA is the one to beat, based on yard confidence that he is the best they have had.
I think I'll go on Saturday, this looks a pretty good Guineas
DrizzleCity
At the Start
In the Betfair Antepost forum within the last hour....
Murtagh has chosen Henrythenavigator, with Kinane expected to ride Plan, Jupitus confirmation still to be made. Jupiter has drifted out to 22's on BF.
Murtagh has chosen Henrythenavigator, with Kinane expected to ride Plan, Jupitus confirmation still to be made. Jupiter has drifted out to 22's on BF.
Big guns take aim at 2,000 Guineas
By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath)
The big battalions are massing for the first Classics of the season this weekend, with Ibn Khaldun confirmed as Godolphin's chief hope for the 2,000 Guineas and Henrythenavigator emerging as the principal contender for arch rivals Coolmore/Ballydoyle. The Jim Bolger-trained New Approach, one mof 19 declarations, heads the ante-post market at 2-1.
It later became clear that Godolphin are likely to have two runners, with Frankie Dettori riding Ibn Khaldun and Ted Durcan booked for Fast Company. Rio De La Plata is to be kept for the French 2,000 Guineas, on May 11, meaning that Kerrin McEvoy will be without a mount for his employer. "Ted rode Fast Company in last year's Dewhurst, he rode him in his key trial in Dubai, and knows the colt very well. There is nothing more to it," explained Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager.
Crisford gave an upbeat report about Ibn Khaldun, the winner of last year's Racing Post Trophy. "He's in great form and we're very pleased with him. He would need to have improved since the Racing Post, but we think he probably has.
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"He has consistently pleased us throughout the winter [in Dubai], and he'll go to Newmarket fit and well, but it is an ultra-competitive Guineas," he added.
As for Fast Company, who started his career with Brian Meehan before his sale to Godolphin, reports of his efforts on the home gallops have been the opposite to his stablemate. "Fast Company shows us absolutely nothing at home. We just hope he saves his best for raceday," Crisford pointed out.
Retained jockey Johnny Murtagh is expected to ride Henrythenavigator, which might explain the sudden move for the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt in ante-post betting yesterday, when he was slashed to 12 (from 16-1) by Ladbrokes.
It is anticipated that Mick Kinane will get the call for Plan, a 20-1 chance, but confirmation is still awaited on the participation of stablemates Jupiter Pluvius and One Great Cat.
A total of 18 fillies stood their ground for the 1,000 Guineas, with O'Brien declaring four - Halfway To Heaven, Kitty Matcham, Savethisdanceforme and Psalm. Murtagh is almost certain to be aboard Savethisdanceforme.
Godolphin will rely on Laureldean Gale, though Crisford warned that the filly could get on edge. "She got very hot and wound up when she went to France last year. She's very fizzy," he said.
In London yesterday, owners Graham and Andrea Wylie were presented with a special Waterford Crystal Globe trophy to mark the third win of Inglis Drever in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Trainer Howard Johnson and his wife Sue were also there to celebrate the occasion.
By HOTSPUR (J A McGrath)
The big battalions are massing for the first Classics of the season this weekend, with Ibn Khaldun confirmed as Godolphin's chief hope for the 2,000 Guineas and Henrythenavigator emerging as the principal contender for arch rivals Coolmore/Ballydoyle. The Jim Bolger-trained New Approach, one mof 19 declarations, heads the ante-post market at 2-1.
It later became clear that Godolphin are likely to have two runners, with Frankie Dettori riding Ibn Khaldun and Ted Durcan booked for Fast Company. Rio De La Plata is to be kept for the French 2,000 Guineas, on May 11, meaning that Kerrin McEvoy will be without a mount for his employer. "Ted rode Fast Company in last year's Dewhurst, he rode him in his key trial in Dubai, and knows the colt very well. There is nothing more to it," explained Simon Crisford, Godolphin's racing manager.
Crisford gave an upbeat report about Ibn Khaldun, the winner of last year's Racing Post Trophy. "He's in great form and we're very pleased with him. He would need to have improved since the Racing Post, but we think he probably has.
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"He has consistently pleased us throughout the winter [in Dubai], and he'll go to Newmarket fit and well, but it is an ultra-competitive Guineas," he added.
As for Fast Company, who started his career with Brian Meehan before his sale to Godolphin, reports of his efforts on the home gallops have been the opposite to his stablemate. "Fast Company shows us absolutely nothing at home. We just hope he saves his best for raceday," Crisford pointed out.
Retained jockey Johnny Murtagh is expected to ride Henrythenavigator, which might explain the sudden move for the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt in ante-post betting yesterday, when he was slashed to 12 (from 16-1) by Ladbrokes.
It is anticipated that Mick Kinane will get the call for Plan, a 20-1 chance, but confirmation is still awaited on the participation of stablemates Jupiter Pluvius and One Great Cat.
A total of 18 fillies stood their ground for the 1,000 Guineas, with O'Brien declaring four - Halfway To Heaven, Kitty Matcham, Savethisdanceforme and Psalm. Murtagh is almost certain to be aboard Savethisdanceforme.
Godolphin will rely on Laureldean Gale, though Crisford warned that the filly could get on edge. "She got very hot and wound up when she went to France last year. She's very fizzy," he said.
In London yesterday, owners Graham and Andrea Wylie were presented with a special Waterford Crystal Globe trophy to mark the third win of Inglis Drever in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Trainer Howard Johnson and his wife Sue were also there to celebrate the occasion.
I guess that will depend on the ground, and how good his chances are of picking up a win in France
Tough luck on those who backed him, it was a very sudden withdrawal! - and odd the news didn't come out til this evening - in my experience horses are scoped at home in the morning, esp as I presume Godolphin has a resident vet? Maybe they had to check with Sheikh Mo before making the announcement?
Tough luck on those who backed him, it was a very sudden withdrawal! - and odd the news didn't come out til this evening - in my experience horses are scoped at home in the morning, esp as I presume Godolphin has a resident vet? Maybe they had to check with Sheikh Mo before making the announcement?
New Approach will be a tough nut to crack. Doubled my bets on Fast Company (who apparently now will not run) and Henrythenavigator since yesterday and still averaged above 16s on both. Henrythenavigator wouldn’t want it too soft, it would suit Fast Company very well.
At least I'll get some of my stake money on Fast Company back (non-runner no bet staked yesterday).
At least I'll get some of my stake money on Fast Company back (non-runner no bet staked yesterday).
The Fast Company news came after my deadline. Nevertheless, that aside, hopefully the following is of some use.
2,000 Guineas Pedigree Pointers
New Approach is certain to be a tough nut to crack in the Guineas, but he could prove even better at middle distances – Fast Company could be Godolphin’s ace at Newmarket, from a strong hand, if lining up here rather than Longchamp
Fast Company looks value to turn tables on New Approach
THE 200th RUNNING of the Stan James sponsored 2,000 Guineas as usual presents us with a field of variously exposed colts brimming with potential. The hopes and expectations for the elite of a new generation of three-year-old thoroughbreds will again be measured and dashed against the reality of the unrelenting Rowley Mile. Some that go into the dip seem never to come out again, while a few define themselves as something apart from the ordinary by stamping their class over those left stumbling around in their wake.
What the form won’t tell us we again look to the Dosage system to supply. The table looks at the 19 contenders left in at the five-day confirmation stage. In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).
2,000 Guineas contenders
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
New Approach (Galileo/Ahonoora) 5-0-7-6-0 = 18, 0.89, 0.22
Fireside (Dr Fong/Zafonic) 2-1-8-1-0 = 12, 1.40, 0.33
Alfathaa (Nayef/Polar Falcon) 5-0-7-2-0 = 14, 1.55, 0.57
Rio De La Plata (Rahy/Ahmad) 8-1-10-1-2 = 22, 1.75, 0.55
Moynahan (Johannesburg/Manila) 4-4-10-0-2 = 20, 1.86, 0.40
Scintillo (Fantastic Light/Thatching) 8-0-10-2-0 = 20, 1.86, 0.70
Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo/Sadler’s Wells) 13-3-18-4-0 = 38, 1.92, 0.66
Fast Company (Danehill Dancer/Zafonic) 5-4-11-2-0 = 22, 1.93, 0.55
Perfect Stride (Oasis Dream/Highest Honor) 3-4-10-1-0 = 18, 2.00, 0.50
Ibn Khaldun (Dubai Destination/Sadler’s Wells) 12-2-12-4-0 = 30, 2.00, 0.73
Stubbs Art (Hawk Wing/Halling) 6-0-7-1-0 = 14, 2.11, 0.79
Plan (Storm Cat/Thunder Gulch) 4-3-6-0-1 = 14, 2.50, 0.64
Jupiter Pluvius (Johannesburg/Boundary) 3-4-7-0-0 = 14, 3.00, 0.71
Stimulation (Choisir/Thatching) 3-2-5-0-0 = 10, 3.00, 0.80
Dream Eater (Night Shift/Simon Du Desert) 5-2-7-0-0 = 14, 3.00, 0.86
Strike The Deal (Van Nistelrooy/Mt Livermore) 10-1-11-0-0 = 22, 3.00, 0.95
One Great Cat (Storm Cat/Mr Prospector) 13-7-14-0-0 = 34, 3.86, 0.97
Bahamian Kid (Bahamian Bounty/Barachois) 3-2-3-0-0 = 8, 4.33, 1.00
Raven’s Pass (Elusive Quality/Lord At War) 6-3-5-0-0 = 14, 4.60, 1.07
The individual with the optimum blend of speed and stamina is invariably the one to side with. It is left to us to identify the colt in which these qualities best reside.
New Approach
The Jim Bolger-trained Dewhurst and National Stakes winner New Approach stands out as unbeaten in five appearances at seven furlongs, four at Group level. The Galileo colt is the half-brother to several winners (being out of Park Express), including the filly Dazzling Park (by Warning), also trained by Bolger, and Shinko Forest (by Green Desert). New Approach’s two-year-old campaign mirrored that of the Bolger-trained 2006 Dewhurst winner Teofilo and like Teofilo (also by Galileo) New Approach headed the two-year-old International Classifications. New Approach is also guaranteed to get the mile well, with six stamina points and a DI of 0.89, something we can’t be sure about from a number of his main rivals. Why then look further for our winner? The answer to this is that he is likely to improve still further at middle distances. So unless we have a dual-Classic winner in the mould of a Nashwan or a Nijinsky on our hands, New Approach may conceivably prove worth taking on at Newmarket.
Godolphin
The question remains with what? While Darley has secured New Approach for its breeding operation, where he will eventually take up stud duties alongside Teofilo, Godolphin in the meantime is seemingly spoilt for choice when looking to take on last season’s juvenile champion. It is to the three remaining possibilities from Godolphin’s armory of stars that we initially turn.
Ibn Khaldun had been nominated by Godolphin as its leading hope in the Guineas earlier this season – so he is as good a place as any to start our search. After being successful in maiden company, at the second attempt last term, the Dubai Destination colt maintained a winning sequence at nursery and Group 3 level for Godolphin before finishing his season by taking the Group 1 Racing Post Stakes by three lengths from the Brian Meehan-trained City Leader (who finished down the field in the Craven on his reappearance) and Barry Hills’ Feared In Flight (placed at Sandown in a classic trial this term). Ibn Khaldun looks to be well suited to a mile and is clearly progressive.
Fast Company, now with Saeed Bin Suroor (trained by Brian Meehan last season), came to the Dewhurst as the winner of the Group 3 Acomb Stakes and finished just half-a-length behind New Approach at Newmarket. The Danehill Dancer colt (out of a Zafonic mare), is reportedly a lazy worker at home, but is clearly entitled to go very close if lining up here rather than in France. His Dosage profile is just what you would expect to see in a Guineas winner and he will take a world of beating if taking part.
Bin Suroor is also responsible for the Rahy colt, Rio De La Plata, who won three of his six starts last season at 7 furlongs. He finished fourth to New Approach in the Dewhurst having been runner-up to him in the National Stakes at the Curragh, winning the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) at Longchamp between times. He also won the Group 2 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes earlier in the season. With a DI of 1.75 and three stamina points in his profile he looks well placed to get the stiff mile at Newmarket, but while it seems he could take his chance here the French Guineas is also an option.
Godolphin’s McCartney would have appeared at the head of our table, the only one with a negative CD. The In The Wings colt looks much better suited by a test of stamina and out of place here. He has been scratched from the race.
Ballydoyle’s challenge
Henrythenavigator and the unexposed Jupiter Pluvius appear to be the main contenders from Ballydoyle, although the Storm Cat colts Plan (who won a Leopardstown maiden last term) and One Great Cat (who recently finished last of seven in the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau at Longchamp) could also take their chances for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Henrythenavigator followed up the big impression he had made on his debut at Gowran Park, over seven furlongs, with a Group 2 win at Ascot in the Coventry Stakes at a furlong shorter. He subsequently finished runner-up to the Bolger-trained Saoirse Abu when odds-on favourite in heavy going at the Curragh and subsequently could make only third spot behind New Approach on soft going in the Futurity Stakes on the same course when returned to seven furlongs. The Kingmambo colt is brother to the high-class Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he is virtually certain to improve again when stepping up to a mile on good going.
Jupiter Pluvius won twice from as many starts last term. The Johannesburg colt followed a maiden win at the Curragh with a Group 3 victory at Leopardstown. It looks possible he’ll get a mile and with plenty of speed in his pedigree he could turn out to be difficult to beat at the distance if he does stay. He seems more likely to excel at distances up to a mile, however.
The others
Peter Chapple-Hyam looks to have some decent prospects this season, but possibly his best chance of landing this was with dual Group 2 winner Winker Watson who reportedly suffered a training setback that has ruled him out of the line up. Fireside remains a possible. The Dr Fong colt won his maiden at Newmarket last October over seven furlongs after an eye catching debut at the Curragh.
The John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass, runaway winner of the Group 3 Solario Stakes in a fast time, finished three lengths third in the Dewhurst, but looks to be a top of the ground horse that would not have appreciated the much softer going he experienced at Newmarket compared with his previous races. He had to settle for second best when coming up against Twice Over in the Craven on his reappearance at HQ this term. With no evident stamina points the Elusive Quality colt may prove effective at distances up to a mile rather than further and although he has proved entitled to take part at the distance may just be stretched to fully see out the required trip even on decent going.
Twice Over won his maiden at a mile and a conditions stakes race at 10 furlongs last season, both at Newmarket, before returning to the Rowley Mile on his reappearance in the Craven to keep his unbeaten record intact. The Observatory colt shot to second-favourite for the 2,000 Guineas on the strength of his Craven performance, but connections have decided to opt for York's Dante Stakes. He looked to have held every chance of landing the Guineas if allowed to take his chance. He could well turn out not to have quite enough stamina for the Derby and is likely to excel at around 10 furlongs.
The Hughie Morrison-trained Stimulation finished runner-up to Confront (who was disappointing on his reappearance in the Greenham) in a conditions stakes race at Ascot last term. He and the winner pulled a long way clear of their field. He was subsequently arguably unlucky when beaten by the Clive Cox-trained Beacon Lodge in a Group 3 at Newbury. The Choisir colt made a winning reappearance at HQ in the European Free Handicap in which he needed all of the 3lbs he was getting from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Fat Boy to get up by the skin of his teeth – a performance that earned his place in the line up here.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Perfect Stride is an unexposed winner of a maiden at Sandown last term and has reportedly been pleasing connections in his work. He was due to reappear in the Craven but missed the race due to bumping his hock. The Oasis Dream colt is difficult to weigh up, but makes our shortlist in terms of Dosage suitability.
The Willie Haggas-trained Alfathaa won a Newbury maiden but could only manage fifth behind City Leader in the Royal Lodge Stakes last term and is yet to reappear.
Bahamian Kid finished fifth in a Doncaster maiden on his only start earlier this season. His points total of just 8 is too low for a reliable Dosage reading.
The exposed Dream Eater only managed one win from eight starts at two for trainer Andrew Balding when accounting for Achilles Of Troy at Doncaster.
Moynahan won a maiden at York last term for Paul Cole.
Scintillo was successful in the Gran Criterium at San Siro for Richard Hannon but finished well behind in the Craven and is exposed. Jeremy Noseda’s Strike The Deal is also exposed but did manage to beat Fat Boy and One Great Cat in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last term.
David Elsworth’s Stubbs Art won a Newmarket nursery last season, his only success in seven appearances to date.
Dosage track record
The Dosage has proved extraordinarily helpful as a tool in determining the winner of this race. Since I have been writing this column the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006 and last year the Dosage gave us the first, second and fourth. While Duke of Marmalade was the selection, the colts shortlisted either side of him in the table finished first and second.
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Vital Equine (Danetime/Selkirk) 3-2-10-1-0 = 16, 1.67, 0.44 2nd
Duke Of Marmalade (Danehill/Kingmambo) 8-4-23-0-1 = 36, 1.88, 0.50 4th
Cockney Rebel (Val Royal/Known Fact) 6-1-7-2-0 = 16, 1.91, 0.69 1st
A Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 for anyone clever enough to have done it – myself excluded, having plumped for the 28/1 each-way on offer on Duke Of Marmalade just a few days before the race (sent off at half that price). Nevertheless, Cockney Rebel defined just the sort of stamina profile we should be looking at for the Rowley Mile (with a DI of just below 2).
Sweet spot
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past ten 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.62 (see table), but those with slightly higher DIs than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 10 winners those that fall into this bracket are: Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 10 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). New Approach and McCartney are the two this year that would be looking to the precedent of Golan rather than the norm.
Year Colt DI
2007 Cockney Rebel 1.91
2006 George Washington 1.67
2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08* (from 1.77)
2004 Haafhd 2.33
2003 Refuse To Bend 1.05
2002 Rock Of Gibraltar 2.16
2001 Golan 0.60* (from 0.78)
2000 Kings Best 2.06
1999 Island Sands 1.57
1998 King Of Kings 1.78
Average 1.62
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.4-2.4 (capturing the majority of the past 10 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Fireside (DI 1.40), Alfathaa (1.55), Rio De La Plata (1.75), Moynahan (1.86), Scintillo (1.86), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Fast Company (1.93), Perfect Stride (2.00), Ibn Khaldun (2.00) and Stubbs Art (2.11).
This shortlist (as it did last year) interestingly leaves out some leading fancies for the race, with New Approach appearing too high in the table (more than the required stamina) and Jupiter Pluvius and Raven’s Pass too low (with not enough apparent stamina). Too much stamina is of course preferable to not enough in a race like this where both speed and stamina, and the right blend of both, are pushed to the extent.
Summary
Of those who conform to a typical Guineas winner the likes of Fast Company, Ibn Khaldun, Rio De La Plata and Henrythenavigator present interesting alternatives to the likely favourite.
I am loath to go against New Approach, who will be difficult to get past, but if we keep faith with the Dosage system the likes of Fast Company and Henrythenavigator look likely to be better suited to this particular race. Whatever New Approach does in the Guineas I expect him to outperform his Guineas effort in the Irish Derby. In the 2,000 Guineas itself I’m going for Fast Company (now that Twice Over does not take part), with a saver on the forgotten horse Henrythenavigator for Ireland. Godolphin’s Rio De La Plata and/or Ibn Khaldun would prove able deputies should Fast Company be diverted to France – either could be placed. Sir Michael Stoute’s Perfect Stride should also be respected if taking part.
Suggested finishing order:
1) Fast Company
2) New Approach
3) Henrythenavigator
4) Ibn Khaldun/Rio De La Plata
5) Perfect Stride
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
2,000 Guineas Pedigree Pointers
New Approach is certain to be a tough nut to crack in the Guineas, but he could prove even better at middle distances – Fast Company could be Godolphin’s ace at Newmarket, from a strong hand, if lining up here rather than Longchamp
Fast Company looks value to turn tables on New Approach
THE 200th RUNNING of the Stan James sponsored 2,000 Guineas as usual presents us with a field of variously exposed colts brimming with potential. The hopes and expectations for the elite of a new generation of three-year-old thoroughbreds will again be measured and dashed against the reality of the unrelenting Rowley Mile. Some that go into the dip seem never to come out again, while a few define themselves as something apart from the ordinary by stamping their class over those left stumbling around in their wake.
What the form won’t tell us we again look to the Dosage system to supply. The table looks at the 19 contenders left in at the five-day confirmation stage. In crude terms those with the most stamina potential appear at the top and those with the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage index (DI).
2,000 Guineas contenders
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
New Approach (Galileo/Ahonoora) 5-0-7-6-0 = 18, 0.89, 0.22
Fireside (Dr Fong/Zafonic) 2-1-8-1-0 = 12, 1.40, 0.33
Alfathaa (Nayef/Polar Falcon) 5-0-7-2-0 = 14, 1.55, 0.57
Rio De La Plata (Rahy/Ahmad) 8-1-10-1-2 = 22, 1.75, 0.55
Moynahan (Johannesburg/Manila) 4-4-10-0-2 = 20, 1.86, 0.40
Scintillo (Fantastic Light/Thatching) 8-0-10-2-0 = 20, 1.86, 0.70
Henrythenavigator (Kingmambo/Sadler’s Wells) 13-3-18-4-0 = 38, 1.92, 0.66
Fast Company (Danehill Dancer/Zafonic) 5-4-11-2-0 = 22, 1.93, 0.55
Perfect Stride (Oasis Dream/Highest Honor) 3-4-10-1-0 = 18, 2.00, 0.50
Ibn Khaldun (Dubai Destination/Sadler’s Wells) 12-2-12-4-0 = 30, 2.00, 0.73
Stubbs Art (Hawk Wing/Halling) 6-0-7-1-0 = 14, 2.11, 0.79
Plan (Storm Cat/Thunder Gulch) 4-3-6-0-1 = 14, 2.50, 0.64
Jupiter Pluvius (Johannesburg/Boundary) 3-4-7-0-0 = 14, 3.00, 0.71
Stimulation (Choisir/Thatching) 3-2-5-0-0 = 10, 3.00, 0.80
Dream Eater (Night Shift/Simon Du Desert) 5-2-7-0-0 = 14, 3.00, 0.86
Strike The Deal (Van Nistelrooy/Mt Livermore) 10-1-11-0-0 = 22, 3.00, 0.95
One Great Cat (Storm Cat/Mr Prospector) 13-7-14-0-0 = 34, 3.86, 0.97
Bahamian Kid (Bahamian Bounty/Barachois) 3-2-3-0-0 = 8, 4.33, 1.00
Raven’s Pass (Elusive Quality/Lord At War) 6-3-5-0-0 = 14, 4.60, 1.07
The individual with the optimum blend of speed and stamina is invariably the one to side with. It is left to us to identify the colt in which these qualities best reside.
New Approach
The Jim Bolger-trained Dewhurst and National Stakes winner New Approach stands out as unbeaten in five appearances at seven furlongs, four at Group level. The Galileo colt is the half-brother to several winners (being out of Park Express), including the filly Dazzling Park (by Warning), also trained by Bolger, and Shinko Forest (by Green Desert). New Approach’s two-year-old campaign mirrored that of the Bolger-trained 2006 Dewhurst winner Teofilo and like Teofilo (also by Galileo) New Approach headed the two-year-old International Classifications. New Approach is also guaranteed to get the mile well, with six stamina points and a DI of 0.89, something we can’t be sure about from a number of his main rivals. Why then look further for our winner? The answer to this is that he is likely to improve still further at middle distances. So unless we have a dual-Classic winner in the mould of a Nashwan or a Nijinsky on our hands, New Approach may conceivably prove worth taking on at Newmarket.
Godolphin
The question remains with what? While Darley has secured New Approach for its breeding operation, where he will eventually take up stud duties alongside Teofilo, Godolphin in the meantime is seemingly spoilt for choice when looking to take on last season’s juvenile champion. It is to the three remaining possibilities from Godolphin’s armory of stars that we initially turn.
Ibn Khaldun had been nominated by Godolphin as its leading hope in the Guineas earlier this season – so he is as good a place as any to start our search. After being successful in maiden company, at the second attempt last term, the Dubai Destination colt maintained a winning sequence at nursery and Group 3 level for Godolphin before finishing his season by taking the Group 1 Racing Post Stakes by three lengths from the Brian Meehan-trained City Leader (who finished down the field in the Craven on his reappearance) and Barry Hills’ Feared In Flight (placed at Sandown in a classic trial this term). Ibn Khaldun looks to be well suited to a mile and is clearly progressive.
Fast Company, now with Saeed Bin Suroor (trained by Brian Meehan last season), came to the Dewhurst as the winner of the Group 3 Acomb Stakes and finished just half-a-length behind New Approach at Newmarket. The Danehill Dancer colt (out of a Zafonic mare), is reportedly a lazy worker at home, but is clearly entitled to go very close if lining up here rather than in France. His Dosage profile is just what you would expect to see in a Guineas winner and he will take a world of beating if taking part.
Bin Suroor is also responsible for the Rahy colt, Rio De La Plata, who won three of his six starts last season at 7 furlongs. He finished fourth to New Approach in the Dewhurst having been runner-up to him in the National Stakes at the Curragh, winning the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Grand Criterium) at Longchamp between times. He also won the Group 2 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes earlier in the season. With a DI of 1.75 and three stamina points in his profile he looks well placed to get the stiff mile at Newmarket, but while it seems he could take his chance here the French Guineas is also an option.
Godolphin’s McCartney would have appeared at the head of our table, the only one with a negative CD. The In The Wings colt looks much better suited by a test of stamina and out of place here. He has been scratched from the race.
Ballydoyle’s challenge
Henrythenavigator and the unexposed Jupiter Pluvius appear to be the main contenders from Ballydoyle, although the Storm Cat colts Plan (who won a Leopardstown maiden last term) and One Great Cat (who recently finished last of seven in the Group 3 Prix de Fontainebleau at Longchamp) could also take their chances for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
Henrythenavigator followed up the big impression he had made on his debut at Gowran Park, over seven furlongs, with a Group 2 win at Ascot in the Coventry Stakes at a furlong shorter. He subsequently finished runner-up to the Bolger-trained Saoirse Abu when odds-on favourite in heavy going at the Curragh and subsequently could make only third spot behind New Approach on soft going in the Futurity Stakes on the same course when returned to seven furlongs. The Kingmambo colt is brother to the high-class Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he is virtually certain to improve again when stepping up to a mile on good going.
Jupiter Pluvius won twice from as many starts last term. The Johannesburg colt followed a maiden win at the Curragh with a Group 3 victory at Leopardstown. It looks possible he’ll get a mile and with plenty of speed in his pedigree he could turn out to be difficult to beat at the distance if he does stay. He seems more likely to excel at distances up to a mile, however.
The others
Peter Chapple-Hyam looks to have some decent prospects this season, but possibly his best chance of landing this was with dual Group 2 winner Winker Watson who reportedly suffered a training setback that has ruled him out of the line up. Fireside remains a possible. The Dr Fong colt won his maiden at Newmarket last October over seven furlongs after an eye catching debut at the Curragh.
The John Gosden-trained Raven’s Pass, runaway winner of the Group 3 Solario Stakes in a fast time, finished three lengths third in the Dewhurst, but looks to be a top of the ground horse that would not have appreciated the much softer going he experienced at Newmarket compared with his previous races. He had to settle for second best when coming up against Twice Over in the Craven on his reappearance at HQ this term. With no evident stamina points the Elusive Quality colt may prove effective at distances up to a mile rather than further and although he has proved entitled to take part at the distance may just be stretched to fully see out the required trip even on decent going.
Twice Over won his maiden at a mile and a conditions stakes race at 10 furlongs last season, both at Newmarket, before returning to the Rowley Mile on his reappearance in the Craven to keep his unbeaten record intact. The Observatory colt shot to second-favourite for the 2,000 Guineas on the strength of his Craven performance, but connections have decided to opt for York's Dante Stakes. He looked to have held every chance of landing the Guineas if allowed to take his chance. He could well turn out not to have quite enough stamina for the Derby and is likely to excel at around 10 furlongs.
The Hughie Morrison-trained Stimulation finished runner-up to Confront (who was disappointing on his reappearance in the Greenham) in a conditions stakes race at Ascot last term. He and the winner pulled a long way clear of their field. He was subsequently arguably unlucky when beaten by the Clive Cox-trained Beacon Lodge in a Group 3 at Newbury. The Choisir colt made a winning reappearance at HQ in the European Free Handicap in which he needed all of the 3lbs he was getting from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Fat Boy to get up by the skin of his teeth – a performance that earned his place in the line up here.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained Perfect Stride is an unexposed winner of a maiden at Sandown last term and has reportedly been pleasing connections in his work. He was due to reappear in the Craven but missed the race due to bumping his hock. The Oasis Dream colt is difficult to weigh up, but makes our shortlist in terms of Dosage suitability.
The Willie Haggas-trained Alfathaa won a Newbury maiden but could only manage fifth behind City Leader in the Royal Lodge Stakes last term and is yet to reappear.
Bahamian Kid finished fifth in a Doncaster maiden on his only start earlier this season. His points total of just 8 is too low for a reliable Dosage reading.
The exposed Dream Eater only managed one win from eight starts at two for trainer Andrew Balding when accounting for Achilles Of Troy at Doncaster.
Moynahan won a maiden at York last term for Paul Cole.
Scintillo was successful in the Gran Criterium at San Siro for Richard Hannon but finished well behind in the Craven and is exposed. Jeremy Noseda’s Strike The Deal is also exposed but did manage to beat Fat Boy and One Great Cat in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood last term.
David Elsworth’s Stubbs Art won a Newmarket nursery last season, his only success in seven appearances to date.
Dosage track record
The Dosage has proved extraordinarily helpful as a tool in determining the winner of this race. Since I have been writing this column the system has given us Haafhd in 2004, when he was put forward to topple the unsuitable favourite One Cool Cat. In 2005 it told us that Footstepsinthesand and Oratorio had a clear advantage over the red-hot favourite Dubawi – both finishing in front of that one in the race itself. The confident vote went to George Washington in 2006 and last year the Dosage gave us the first, second and fourth. While Duke of Marmalade was the selection, the colts shortlisted either side of him in the table finished first and second.
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Vital Equine (Danetime/Selkirk) 3-2-10-1-0 = 16, 1.67, 0.44 2nd
Duke Of Marmalade (Danehill/Kingmambo) 8-4-23-0-1 = 36, 1.88, 0.50 4th
Cockney Rebel (Val Royal/Known Fact) 6-1-7-2-0 = 16, 1.91, 0.69 1st
A Cockney Rebel/Vital Equine straight forecast paid out £692.93 for anyone clever enough to have done it – myself excluded, having plumped for the 28/1 each-way on offer on Duke Of Marmalade just a few days before the race (sent off at half that price). Nevertheless, Cockney Rebel defined just the sort of stamina profile we should be looking at for the Rowley Mile (with a DI of just below 2).
Sweet spot
The average Dosage index (DI) for the past ten 2,000 Guineas winners is 1.62 (see table), but those with slightly higher DIs than the average (up to around DI 2) seem the ideal type for the race. Of the past 10 winners those that fall into this bracket are: Cockney Rebel (1.91), George Washington (1.67), Haafhd (2.33), Rock Of Gibraltar (2.16), Kings Best (2.06) and King Of Kings (1.78). Golan is the only winner of this race in the past 10 renewals with a DI of below 1 (indicating greater stamina potential than is usually associated with this race). New Approach and McCartney are the two this year that would be looking to the precedent of Golan rather than the norm.
Year Colt DI
2007 Cockney Rebel 1.91
2006 George Washington 1.67
2005 Footstepsinthesand 1.08* (from 1.77)
2004 Haafhd 2.33
2003 Refuse To Bend 1.05
2002 Rock Of Gibraltar 2.16
2001 Golan 0.60* (from 0.78)
2000 Kings Best 2.06
1999 Island Sands 1.57
1998 King Of Kings 1.78
Average 1.62
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
If we concentrate on those lying in the band of DI 1.4-2.4 (capturing the majority of the past 10 winners), we are left with a shortlist of: Fireside (DI 1.40), Alfathaa (1.55), Rio De La Plata (1.75), Moynahan (1.86), Scintillo (1.86), Henrythenavigator (1.92), Fast Company (1.93), Perfect Stride (2.00), Ibn Khaldun (2.00) and Stubbs Art (2.11).
This shortlist (as it did last year) interestingly leaves out some leading fancies for the race, with New Approach appearing too high in the table (more than the required stamina) and Jupiter Pluvius and Raven’s Pass too low (with not enough apparent stamina). Too much stamina is of course preferable to not enough in a race like this where both speed and stamina, and the right blend of both, are pushed to the extent.
Summary
Of those who conform to a typical Guineas winner the likes of Fast Company, Ibn Khaldun, Rio De La Plata and Henrythenavigator present interesting alternatives to the likely favourite.
I am loath to go against New Approach, who will be difficult to get past, but if we keep faith with the Dosage system the likes of Fast Company and Henrythenavigator look likely to be better suited to this particular race. Whatever New Approach does in the Guineas I expect him to outperform his Guineas effort in the Irish Derby. In the 2,000 Guineas itself I’m going for Fast Company (now that Twice Over does not take part), with a saver on the forgotten horse Henrythenavigator for Ireland. Godolphin’s Rio De La Plata and/or Ibn Khaldun would prove able deputies should Fast Company be diverted to France – either could be placed. Sir Michael Stoute’s Perfect Stride should also be respected if taking part.
Suggested finishing order:
1) Fast Company
2) New Approach
3) Henrythenavigator
4) Ibn Khaldun/Rio De La Plata
5) Perfect Stride
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
If the ground is on the soft side of good for the 2000 i don`t think i`ll ever go in heavy ante-post on the Guineas again. I was lucky enough with the 1000 last year but had Nannina in `06 and she was the best filly by some distance in that race but the ground was totally against her. It used to be that both Guineas were always run on fast ground but nowadays with global warming the ground conditions are much more unpredictable.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Er, why?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
It was freaky, but if it comes up soft again that`s two out of three - more of a trend.
Er, why? [/b][/quote]
He got just the type of stamina profile you would expect to see for this race, he’s been working well and Stoute trains him. If he lines up his chance should be respected. The Dosage is of most help when there is little form to go on.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I take your point, but animals with low profile form like PS only win poor Guineas imo. I`m thinking Footsteps, Golan and Enterpreneur.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Thanks for posting that, Steve. :clap:
That may well be the case. Then again I'm not expecting Perfect Stride to win. However, the Dosage indicates that of the unexposed ones he could well outperform expectations of him. That might be worth knowing to someone who fancies him.