2000 Guineas

I was sceptical that you had hunted down the caravan of love, Shadow. I just wanted to stay on your good side.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@May 2 2008, 05:47 PM
I have a feeling that the race will not be run at that fast a pace.

This may play into the hands of Raven's Pass, who, although not certain to get a mile, seemed to stick on well enough in the Craven and will be well suited by the drying ground.

New Approach should be staying on well at the death, and Stimulation looks the best of the unexposed types and could run into a place.
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I would agree with that to an extent (in that I agree that the race won't be run at a flying gallop).

I can see New Approach dictating a sensible enough gallop, kicking on a quarter of a mile out and repelling everything that comes at him up the hill.

Can't wait for tommorrow.

Is it a boy or a girl, Shads? :D
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+May 2 2008, 08:38 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ May 2 2008, 08:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Warbler@May 2 2008, 09:19 PM


I don't remember Mark of Esteems win, in fact I can barely remember what happened last week yet alone 1996, but a look at the race comments for a field of 13 sugests they split into a stands group and a centre group, with the centre providing the 1-2-3. In fields of 16 or less though, low numbers seem to hold sway

George Washington 6 of 14
Haafhd 4 of 14
Island Sands 3 of 16
Entrepreneur 4 of 16
Mark of Esteem 2 of 13
Pennekamp 11 of 11
Zafonic 10 of 14
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Mark of Esteem came stands side in his win. Beat a Tompkins horse i can`t remember the name of.

Low numbers holding sway i don`t buy because it depends where the stalls are place. Haafhd may have been drawn 4 but the stalls were on the far side in 2004. [/b][/quote]
A typo on my part Euro (though quite a significant one) the stands side provided the 1-2-3 with the leading horse in the centre coming 4th. Haafhd's win I do remember as they split into two groups which was broadly consistent with a leading and chasing pack. I seem to think that the unfancied runners went haring off, with only Haafhd of the fancied horses going with them. It was almost as if the more fancied runners tucked in off the pace, didn't realise that Haafhd was in the leading pack, and when they came to close the gap and chase the outsiders down, he'd stolen a jump on them. It was a weird race.

I'm not sure where the pace is going to come from among the lower numbers, and it might even be that rather than fighting for his head, New Approach might have to cut his own furrow and seek to join the higher drawn horses later?

As I never tire of saying, I'm not the greatets race reader, and would be curious to know where you'd want to be drawn
 
Originally posted by Warbler@May 2 2008, 09:07 PM
Warbler said:
I'm not sure where the pace is going to come from among the lower numbers, and it might even be that rather than fighting for his head, New Approach might have to cut his own furrow and seek to join the higher drawn horses later?
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 Agreed Warbler, this is what's interesting to me too.
IK has the best draw of the fancied trio, the other two being drawn at the edges.

One conundrum is what Plan is doing in the race - is he a pacemaker, and if so how effective will he be? On form figures I can't see he has any business being in the race at all, and he's not there 'for the badge' like a few of the lesser lights, so he must have an intended role, esp with such an experienced jock up.

I can't see the ground being fast enough for Raven's Pass - I think he would need top of the ground to get the trip, maybe even to be placed. I see the finishing order on Good G/S in the last two furloings as:
New Approach, Ibn Khaldun, Perfect Stride, Henrythenavigator, Raven's Pass.
If it's G/F and Good in the last two furlongs, that will help RP [into 3rd maybe?], but he's been beaten twice at Newmarket and that worries me

I'm largely influenced in that 1/2 by the opinions from the Bolger camp that NA is better even than Teofilo; and that Ibn Khaldun may not be sufficiently acclimatised due to the cold wet spring. I'm also mindful that Newmarket Rowley Mile form is important - not all horses act on the track and NA is one which has won there, unlike the other principals.

Luke: last season his trainer said Fireside would make 'a nice 7 furlong or even a 6 furlong horse'
So I can't see him winning this Guineas or even being placed
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IBN KHALDUN would be the icing on the biggest cake in history for me if he can collect here and my confident words last June to highlight him when he was still unraced doing swinging canters will be well rewarded if he were to collect today. Having staked at 125s, 66s and 40s he could complete a great bet for me and he has come back from Dubai in top form. He blew out nicely with his regular lead horse in the week and looks to have improved no end this season. Last year he progressed nicely and in a big gallop in Dubai he finished just in front of Fast Company going smoothly. There is no doubt he has improved and he can collect here. Perfect Stride is the write me off at your own peril bet and I have been keen on him for sometime. Highlighted as Stoute’s best last season he should still be unbeaten and missing the Craven was not a total disaster as he wasn’t quite ready. He works very encouragingly at home and shouldn’t be discounted. Stimulation has been crying out for the mile and could be each way value alongsides Fireside who burst clear of Cape Amber in his trial gallop. Ravens Pass was found wanting in the Craven and whilst the drying ground would have pleased his connections and supporters there is still the lingering doubt of whether he quite gets the mile. His lead horse was an unlucky loser yesterday but I couldn’t place confidence in him. New Approach is the one they all have to beat and boasts the best form but the improvement shown with Ibn Khaldun and Perfect Stride over the winter months and these past few weeks has been seriously encouraging and Ibn Khaldun has always looked the real deal to me. I don’t doubt his ability and not only do I expect him to win, I expect him to follow up in the Derby, to me he is a class act who will get better as the season progresses and the further he goes in trip. He will love the ground and his pure powerhouse turn of foot and sublime cruising speed is enough to deny Jim Bolger that 2000 Guineas crown he has his eye on for the past 2 years.
 
Heads

Ibn Khaldun has a heated stable and has heat lamps, he has been back for no more than a few weeks and has been cantering with 2 sheets keeping him warm, he looks magnificent and I will be amazed if he doesn't get best turned out. He had a tan nearly as exaggerated as Frankie when striding out on Wednesday.

He is absolutely fine and is practically running off the plane, he doesn't really know he's left Dubai. Its not like many yards who turn them back into their normal stables with 3 rugs or whatever. This horse has been under the heat lamps keeping him in tip top shape. If acclimatising is your worry about Ibn, you need not be worried, I can assure you of that one. He has been kept really warm and just looks magnificent, if anything his winter months in Dubai will give him an advantage over his rivals as he is likely to be far more forward in his coat, there also ain't an once on him, he is a as fit as a flea and wont want for fitness.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@May 2 2008, 10:07 PM


As I never tire of saying, I'm not the greatets race reader, and would be curious to know where you'd want to be drawn
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The stalls are in the centre so i`m happy with 13 of 15 for RP. He may well end up on the far side rail anyway so a low draw would have been a worry.
 
Dunno trackside, gonna wait till it comes out to find out!!!! :laughing:

What has Segal gone for? Can't get my hands on a paper for God knows how long and bored already!!! Want to cross the Segal yoke off at any rate! Looking at the betting patterns I'd guess maybe Ibn Khaldun?

Sod it, I'm gonna back Ravens Pass. Was very impressed with him last year and hope he can continue to improve.
 
Good luck Chris, you were spot on about this horse all last year.

The only niggle I have about IK is that he may need more of a trip. The Ascot race last year showed how strong he was late in the race and 8f for a 2yo is already a good trip...again at Doncaster his power in the last furlong was superb. Given the 2 to 3 development I fear he could be needing 10f even at this stage....would be my only negative and does put me off backing him today tbh.

Ravens Pass looks to need faster ground.

New Approach looks most likely winner to me but the odds are way to short for me in a race like this.

No serious bet for me just small bets on PLAN & PERFECT STRIDE who represent a bit of value at 47/1 & 15/1 on betfair.
 
By a Group 1 miler, out of a Group 1 miler who was a sister to a Group 1 miler. Ibn Khaldun for me, so good luck Chris.
 
Good luck Chris for the big payout, and thanks for the extra info.
I'm not going today after all, can't really afford it! But will be there in spirit...

I think a Tri is the way to go today, or maybe two - I've just done a 3-way Tri on PP:
New Approach/Ibn Khaldoun/Raven's Pass

I've also done a bigger Fct NA & IK

The drying ground will help RP, and he is def a class act, so I think he'll come 3rd
I really do think the top three are in a different class to the others
My big worry is that the Guineas result almost never follows the betting!
 
New Approach for me. A boring obvious, but have been speaking to New Approach team and they are v bullish. He is considered some sort of super horse over there and he hasn't put a foot wrong once this year so i can't see why the others can turn the tables at this stage. Anyway best of luck to all who stand to lose or make their fortunes, let the games begin!
 
I'd be reasonably confident that something will find it's way into a place at a decent price outside of the front 3 in the betting (something usually does).

And good luck too Chris :D
 
I've topped up on New Approach today and have used my 'returns' on Fast Company for each-way/place savers on Henrythenavigator and Perfect Stride (12s with Hills). I've passed over Ibn Khaldun as I think that Fast Company (as Shamardal was to Dubawi) will prove the better horse. I've passed over Raven's Pass as I think he'll be stretched for a true run race at the distance.
 
Originally posted by SteveM@May 3 2008, 01:07 PM
(as Shamardal was to Dubawi)
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Ofrly.png
 
:laughing: :laughing:
I’ll flatter myself that means as wise as one… I’m certainly getting as grey as this one!
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+May 2 2008, 08:38 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ May 2 2008, 08:38 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Warbler@May 2 2008, 09:19 PM


I don't remember Mark of Esteems win, in fact I can barely remember what happened last week yet alone 1996, but a look at the race comments for a field of 13 sugests they split into a stands group and a centre group, with the centre providing the 1-2-3. In fields of 16 or less though, low numbers seem to hold sway

George Washington 6 of 14
Haafhd 4 of 14
Island Sands 3 of 16
Entrepreneur 4 of 16
Mark of Esteem 2 of 13
Pennekamp 11 of 11
Zafonic 10 of 14
Click to expand...
Mark of Esteem came stands side in his win. Beat a Tompkins horse i can`t remember the name of.

Low numbers holding sway i don`t buy because it depends where the stalls are place. Haafhd may have been drawn 4 but the stalls were on the far side in 2004. [/b][/quote]
The draw is only biased on extremes of going over the Rowley Mile. On today's going the draw, as such, shouldn't be too much of a factor. I'll be more to do with which groups of colts run together.
 
No bet for me, but I think New Approach will bounce out and make all, stretch on going into the dip and hang on to win by about a length.

Good luck with Ibn Khaldun, Chris!
 
Stoute and Moore have effectively said they are only running Perfect becasue the owner likes a runner. Very negative.

There have been worse 43/1 shots than Plan.
 
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