2000 Guineas

Originally posted by Desert Orchid@May 3 2008, 03:23 PM
Took 12s Henry the other evening and managed to resist the temptation to go in heavily on the favourite as I couldn't get 2/1. Nice bit of good fortune for me in that respect but New Approach has run a brilliant Derby trial.
Couldn't agree more. Let's hope they have a change of heart and switch him back to Epsom. Did my dough backing Montjeu for Epsom but recouped handsomely by having my biggest bet ever on him in the Irish Derby (out of annoyance more than anything). Looks like being the same story here.

There could be hope though. They didn't expect him to lose here when they took him out of the Derby.
 
norty Got lucky for a change. Snaffled some 40/1 about Henry 3 weeks ago with the view to using it to trade out the book on. For what ever reason, I changed my mind and used the 85 on Ibn Khaldun instead, whilst leaving the 80 part of that bet to run. In the end the whole of Henry's win and place odds of 40 and 6.2 was left to run. I wasn't paying too much attention to him, and was just cursing Godolphin and only picked him up very late.

Swings and Roundabouts, and taken a few hits during the latter part of the jumps season, and this has kicked be off quite nicely. A win for Nati would do nicely now.
 
Hmmm..didn't back new approach but I do think if he had taken the decision to push for home earlier on a horse they reckon will have no trouble getting a Derby trip around the Curragh the race would have been over before Johnny got out.
Personally at this stage I reckon the winner has a better chance of getting a Derby distance than the runner up.

I thought Plan ran a blinder on only his third ever run,he didn't look fully tuned up beforehand, one for Ascot.
 
Rory agreed I couldn't see what tactical purpose Plan would serve!
But I couldn't see what possible point there was running him in the race either given they had superior horses

He finished 8th which isn't bad so I suppose the point that several one-time winners in the race shows it's worth running them, however lowly the race they've won. I personally can't see the point, if you have a much better horse in the race, giving an inexperienced colt such a hard race so early in the season unless you have a pretty good chance of placing. They are of course running in different colours, but I'm never sure how much that means!

Deeply uninformed.

Rock of Gibrarltar
High Chapparal

etc etc.

Plan was the only one who marginally quickened with NA 3 out.
 
Fantastic race, two very good colts pulling nicely clear. And Ballydoyle have no good three year olds eh? Your theory about Plan was clearly wrong Headstrong, clearly they felt he had the right to turn up - and as Sheikh said he showed plenty of promise for a horse that will be best at 10 furlongs.

Ibn Khaldun disappointed for you Chris but I said at the time his RP win was impressive visually but he only beat a bunch of future stayers on very fast ground. Woefully out paced today.

Ravens Pass run flattered out after a poorish passage but he looks a 6-7 furlong horse to me.
 
Just goes to show how hard it is for middle distance colts to win this race. If a high class miler is present in the line-up it isn`t gonna happen unless the animal is a near 140 machine. Nashwan and Golan were most fortunate in the fields they had to contend with - i`d forgotten until CH4 showed the montage how close-up Danehill was in 1989.
 
Originally posted by Warbler@May 3 2008, 03:56 PM
norty Got lucky for a change. Snaffled some 40/1 about Henry 3 weeks ago with the view to using it to trade out the book on. For what ever reason, I changed my mind and used the 85 on Ibn Khaldun instead, whilst leaving the 80 part of that bet to run. In the end the whole of Henry's win and place odds of 40 and 6.2 was left to run. I wasn't paying too much attention to him, and was just cursing Godolphin and only picked him up very late.

Swings and Roundabouts, and taken a few hits during the latter part of the jumps season, and this has kicked be off quite nicely. A win for Nati would do nicely now.
Great price on Henry Warbler, I can't boast more than slightly above 20s. As for Ibn Khaldun, Godolphin has again run the wrong horse (for whatever reason). I have no doubt that Fast Company will prove to be better than Ibn and feel in my bones that the 'low blood count' thing about Fast Company is a bit of a smokescreen. I've no doubt that if Brian Meehan had still been training him that he would have taken part and been right there with the front two. History repeating itself. Perhaps.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 3 2008, 05:02 PM


Ravens Pass run flattered out after a poorish passage but he looks a 6-7 furlong horse to me.
He had to cover a lot of ground to get anywhere near contention. Fact is his only impressive performance was on fast ground round a turn. I would think he would be a player in the St James Palace or the Sussex.
 
Watching it again didn't the first two home today do their very best impression of the Teofilo vs Holy Roman Emperor clash in the Craven? Henry was towered over by New Approach but battled on well.
 
Originally posted by Euronymous+May 3 2008, 05:10 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Euronymous @ May 3 2008, 05:10 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Galileo@May 3 2008, 05:02 PM


Ravens Pass run flattered out after a poorish passage but he looks a 6-7 furlong horse to me.
He had to cover a lot of ground to get anywhere near contention. Fact is his only impressive performance was on fast ground round a turn. I would think he would be a player in the St James Palace or the Sussex. [/b][/quote]
He is due to go for the Jersey and July Cup Euro...
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@May 3 2008, 03:38 PM

Incredible silence on Ch4 - they sounded utterly stunned
The build-up coverage was completely woeful and biased really. NA was 2.4 on Betfair just before the off and not one of them came on and commented on what shocking value that was. Pro money my arse.
 
I don't understand the Fast Company theories. Sheikh Mo had a piece of each of the first three in the betting, so what difference would it make to keep him out on purpose? If he just wasn't working well, then why not just say so - especially as they've been saying it all winter?
 
Fantastic finish. Awesome turn of foot produced by Henrythenavigator and a fantastic ride by Murtagh.

New Approach must emerge with tremendous credit. Was coming back at Henrythenavigator near the line but just couldn't live with his turn of foot. Will be very interesting to see where he goes next. Clearly, he will be seen to best effect over further than a mile, but given today's performance, he must have every chance of winning the Irish 2,000 Guineas (especially if there is a bit of cut in the ground).

Raven's Pass looks for all the world a sprinter now. He failed to settle again for the first two furlongs today (the gallop was by no means hectic) which made things difficult for Fortune. I can't help thinking that his turn of foot will be seen to best effect off a really strong end to end gallop in something like the July Cup; indeed, that race looks tailor made for him IMO.
 
Originally posted by Galileo+May 3 2008, 05:11 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Galileo @ May 3 2008, 05:11 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by Euronymous@May 3 2008, 05:10 PM
<!--QuoteBegin-Galileo
@May 3 2008, 05:02 PM


Ravens Pass run flattered out after a poorish passage but he looks a 6-7 furlong horse to me.

He had to cover a lot of ground to get anywhere near contention. Fact is his only impressive performance was on fast ground round a turn. I would think he would be a player in the St James Palace or the Sussex.
He is due to go for the Jersey and July Cup Euro... [/b][/quote]
Pointless going for the Jersey - it`s a nothing race for me.

If it runs in the July Cup i`ll be laying it large at anything under 5s. No chance.
 
What is about this race? There's an old adage;

"The fitest horse wins the Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby, and the best horse wins the Leger"

Is there another race anywhere that seems to throw so many big priced placed horses?

Note to self - In future back all 100/1 shots to place. If Nick Mordin's looking in, I'm sure you could devise a system out of this?

2008 - Stubbs Art 100/1 - third
2007 - Vital Equine 33/1 - third
2006 - Olympian Odyssey 33/1 - third
2005 - Rebel Rebel 100/1 - second
Kandidate 100/1 - third
2004 - Azamour 25/1 - third
2003 - Zafeen 33/1 - second
Norse Dancer 100/1 - third
2002 - Redback 25/1 - second
2000 - Zoning 50/1 - fourth
Compton Bolter 100/1 fifth

So that's 4 horses in the last 5 renewals making the frame returned at 100/1 :eek: plus a host of other fancy prices. During the same period, a veritable squadron of jollies and fav's (2/1 or less) have been turned over. New Approach becomes the latest addition to the alumni.

In fairness Stubbs Art had some form with Twice Over in Zetland when he finished 1.75L's away in third. So given the dreadful ride Ravens Pass received today, I'd be inclined to think that Twice Over comes out of things reasonably well after that. I note too, that Duntulum, who won that bizzarre opening handicap (or should that be the opening handicap bizzarrely) also ran in the Zetland and finished 11.5L's off Twice Over. He actually has a line to Sugar Mint at Bath now that goes through Listen and Spacious
 
Son of Kingmambo, out of a beautifully bred mare....now a Guineas winner and a Coventry Stakes winner....Coolmore have wanted one of these for some time now.
 
Looks like the first two could be heading for the Irish Guineas.

Whatever about New Approach and the Derby, that'll do for me! :clap:
 
Granted fast ground I think Henry will be an easier winner at the Curragh. O'Brien stated he left something to work on (remember the horse was doubtful for this race a few weeks back) and he is in the mould of Rock Of Gibraltar...small but very strong and likely to take his racing very well.
 
Was just thinking how quickly the whole picture changed for Ballydoyle for this year. A fortnight ago Jupiter Pluvius was Ballydoyle's Guineas horse and Henrythenavigator wouldn't be out until the summer!

Henry must have come on leaps and bounds the last few weeks.
 
Originally posted by trackside528@May 3 2008, 05:33 PM


Henry must have come on leaps and bounds the last few weeks.
It`s a good job Sheikh Mo doesn`t own him, he`d be running in the Poulains. He must be gutted, no question he thought he had all the bases covered in this race.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@May 3 2008, 05:19 PM
Son of Kingmambo, out of a beautifully bred mare....now a Guineas winner and a Coventry Stakes winner....Coolmore have wanted one of these for some time now.
Add in their share in Thewayyouare and they'll have the Kingmambo line covered nicely now.
 
The first two were well clear of the rest, a dead heat would have been the "fairest" result. It will give Murtagh plenty of confidence for the rest of the season.

I'd have liked to have seen Raven's Pass ridden more positively, he would have been third instead of fourth imo, but a step down to the 7f Jersey stakes looks the sensible option and a likely winning one.

Not sure about the July Cup for him, it depends who comes over from abroad. It will be a very hot race, that's for sure.

It still might be worth trying him over a mile a some stage given fast ground and an easy track, Goodwood for example, or maybe the Breeders Cup Mile.
 
Chris

Very hard lines with IK today...has ran no sort of race

going back to the distance this horse needs...not that it mattered today obviously...I know Gareth pointed out his breeding but if you look at his entries it suggests to me that the connections belive 10f is this horse's best distance.

On saying that NA clearly needs further and nearly won bar for meeting...as mentioned above..a top class miler.

Interesting to put a speed figure on this race...they looked miles clear of the rest...i'll get me set square and stop watch out norty
 
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