2000 Guineas

oh dear. im amazed meehan doesnt commit crowded house to the guineas if the visual impression of the rp trophy is to be believed he could be head and shoulders above anything else in the race. I also like sea the stars and at a bigger price lord shankill could spring a surprise or too really thought he may be the pricewise selection
 
From the RP...

Head admitted to being disappointed by his colt's display and future plans are now very much up in the air.
"He will improve but I haven't made up my mind whether we are going to go to Newmarket," said Head.
"Right now I would say it looks a bit doubtful as I am disappointed with that run. We'll get him home and see how he is but I would say Newmarket is doubtful."


I just hope there's an excuse for it. Sickening!
 
Craven Stakes next week:

Alyarf
Art Connoisseur
City Style
Close Alliance
Cry Of Freedom
Delegator
Finjaan
Glass Harmonium
Imperial Guest
Lord Shanakill
North East Corner
On Our Way
Pure Poetry
Sans Frontiers
Soul City
Vocalised
 
Absolutely Gareth, tried to tell myself this tonight. I was terribly disappointed and I wonder if he needs a longer trip now he's three, I think the French Derby will suit better than the Guineas (my Antepost position disagrees). If you want to try and take any positives out of it, he got no cover at all and was always seeing a lot of daylight and was forced to take things up himself a long way from home, you also can't quibble with the way he battled once he did get into a mess, he would have won by a comfortable margin in another half furlong and then the performance would be described as "workmanlike, if slightly making heavy weather of it."

I still think he could be a great horse, just not sure if he'll be a great Guineas horse.
 
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Last seasons 2yo's were the worst bunch I've ever clocked, and even the pick of the bunch would only have been on the coat tails of some the previous alumni rather than heading the listings. In short none of them were consistantly hitting the sort of figures that have been recorded by previous top 2 yo's or those horses that subsequently trained on at 3. You had a couple of useful performers (but nothing better than that), and even these were confined to just a single race/ glimpse of the potential.

Some horses had performed well enough in their late 2yo career to suggest they were already capable of hitting the mark as Spring 3yo's (Teofilo, Holy Roman Emperor, Finscael Beo, Natagora and Zarkava come to mind - I'll gloss over Evening Time and Ibn Khaldun:whistle:). There is another cluster tucked in behind this group that were within 'the zone' that suggested the level of improvement needed was minimal and these included the likes of New Approach, Dutch Art, Authorized, Henrythenavigator and Motivator.

Last year there wasn't really that much on display in truth, and what had advertised their credentials hadn't really done so with any sense of imposing authority. I've consequently not taken any ante post position, as I felt that improvement could come from any where. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a few unconsidered sorts flash past some of the leading 2yo's, as the standard bearers themselves hadn't already established the level of performance to suggest that all they really needed to do was stay healthy to figure in the equation. To no small extent, we've seen a bit of this occurring already and I've got no reason to believe that with trials to come at Newmarket and Newbury we won't see a few more yet.

I've come tot he conclusions that the much maligned trial races are going to be more informative than normal this year?
 
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Will put something up tomorrow Gal. Have to send some gallops out this evening with them included, so think I owe people that I do gallops first knowledge on them.

I'll post up something on Monday highlighting a number of horses that have been working well lately.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Where did you read/hear this Gal?

Just off to buy some rope...
Click to expand...

By Desmond Stoneham3.47PM 11 APR 2009
NAAQOOS is now "very doubtful" to run in the Stanjames.com 2,000 Guineas as trainer Freddie Head "would prefer" to keep the three-year-old in France for the French equivalent, the Poule d'Essai des Poulains at Longchamp


Naaqoos had been as short as 5-1 joint favourite for the first Classic of the season but was on Friday generally available at 10-1 after his shock defeat by Le Havre in the Listed Prix Djebel at Maisons-Laffitte on his seasonal reappearance.

Afterwards Head called the Group 1-winner "doubtful" for the 2,000 Guineas and on Saturday all but ruled out a trip to Newmarket.
"The colt is very well after the race," said Head, adding: "For the moment, I have not spoken with Sheikh Hamdan or his manager.
"We will see how is is first before making a decision on his future but he is very doubtful for the 2,000 Guineas.
"I would prefer to run him next in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains as he knows his way around Longchamp."
Naaqoos had on Saturday afternoon been matched at as high as 16-1 on Betfair for the 2,000 Guineas.
 
I wouldn't touch the race until the day now, too many question marks over lots of them. Like Alun says, I expect the trials to be more informative than normal.
 
Just going through the 2000 guineas market on Betfair, and some strange prices.

You would want to be out of your mind to be taking less than 9/1 about either Delegator or Rip Van Winkle.

There is a lot of value to be had in this market as things stand.
 
Plenty should be learnt this week with the trials in Newmarket plus with the gallops at home getting ever more serious the market should prove to be a good guide.
 
Yep, should be an interesting week. I'd like to see Art Connoiseur run well; his coventry win was visually, at least, one of the most impressive wins last year.
 
Euronymous said:
Have you seen the RP Trophy?
Click to expand...

Bit of time on my hands now!!!

This one was a pecuiliar one, in that he would be one of the few that beat 100, but the performance seemingly came from nowhere (well the level of it did anyway) and that's what worries me a bit. It's quite interesting to look at the respective 2007 and 2008 cards, as this also helps illustrate something else.

Both cards were run at the same course, at the same time of year, over the same distances, and featured identical race conditions. According to Doncaster race course, both were run on 'Good' ground, and yet the times are significantly different

Ibn Khaldun = 1.37.62
Crowded House = 1.39.17

So there we have it, Ibn Khaldun was 1.55 secs quicker (about 9L's) and so you draw an opinion about Crowded House accordingly? Well no.

Convert the times from standard (more of which later) into mile aggregates and you get the following;

........................2007..........2008

2yo nursery........-1.34.........-2.96 = (1.62)
0-100 H'cap.......+0.89.........-1.15 = (2.04)
2yo Listed.........-0.54..........-2.13 = (1.59)
2yo Group 1.......+0.88.........-0.67 = (1.55)
0-95 H'cap........-0.10..........-3.07 = (2.97)
Conditons Stks...-0.46..........-2.68 = (2.20)
3yo 0-85 H'cap...-1.52..........-4.19 = (2.67)

On each occasion, the 2007 race was faster than the 2008 renewal of the same event. The only one that might give any concern would be the 12F race where the difference is 2.97 secs, a full 0.30 secs slower than the next nearest. But the spread covers 1.42 secs from the fastest to the slowest in terms of comparison. Crowded House, unlike Ibn Khaldun sets the fastest time, and also happens to the one that's nearest to his 2007 benchmark at 1.55 secs too (the lowest differential).

How you set about legislating for prevailing ground conditions is always a matter of opinion. I'd be half inclined to remove the 0-95 handicap, but if you elect to simply take a mean of all the figures you end with the following

2007 = -0.31
2008 = -2.40

A difference of 2.09 secs per mile. That is to say that the ground was assisting Ibn Khaldun by 2.09 secs and therefore this would either need adding to his race time, or taking away from Crowded Houses when trying to assess their merits.

Ibn Kaldun = 1.39.71
Crowded House = 1.39.17

Which makes Crowded House 0.54 secs faster (about 3L's)

Means can mislead however, see what happens if we use the median time?

On both occasions the median time is represented by the 7F conditions stakes (relates to the CP used) which was run slow by -0.46 at a mile, and -2.68 in 2008, for a difference of 2.22 secs. This isn't to far removed from the mean figure of 2.09, but would extend Crowded Houses advantage further when this higher figure is added to Ibn Khaldun's.

1.37.62 + 2.22 = 1.39.84 - 1.39.17 = 0.67 secs (nearly 4L's)

As mentioned I'm a bit twitchy about the 12F race which ranks 3rd and 6th fastest between the two years, suggesting that either one was very fast, or the other a bit on the slow side. If we omit this then we'll get another estimate of what the ground was doing

2007 = -0.34
2008 = -2.29

The new figure points to it being 1.95 secs faster in 2007. This would be the most co-operative figure I can legitmately generate using this line (without bending stuff too much) and this brings Ibn Khaldun out some 0.40 secs behind Crowded House.

Now obviously these figures are just raw times, and don't involve any class par so we can't as yet say what the ground was really like. For those who've absorbed this guff so far, I'll spare you the class par figures other than to say the same allowances apply to each of the same races. I routinely omit the two fastest and two slowest and so brought the ground out as such

2007 = +3.21
2008 = +0.98

It's a classic example of the limitations of using going descriptions. At face value they both ran on 'Good' with Ibn Khaldun running 1.55 secs faster. A closer examination suggests that the ground in 2007 was riding 2.23 secs faster (3.21 against 0.98).

+0.98 would be consistant with Good ground (faster side of)
+3.21 I'd normally be calling Good to Firm

What this tells us I dont know though. Ibn Khaldun was sent off favourite for the Guineas and yet Crowded House appears to be significantly faster. Had Ibn Khaldun won the guineas or got within 3 or 4L's of doing so, you'd be fancying Crowded House. In any event, it looks like a seriously impressive 2yo performance it what was for the most part, a barren year.

A slight word of caution (and I'll need to check things) The RP have been playing about with their standards of late and have wreaked havoc to my historical ratings at places like Cheltenham. It's not therefore a given that I'm comparing like with like, as the difference in standard need not be the same as the race-time any more. I'll need to double check this when I get time, to see if the same standard time has been applied to both years.

If it has, then you'd have to say Crowded House looks very good, but then since we're using Ibn Khaldun as his benchmark, we can't be completely confident either:confused:

Hope that helps a bit
 
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Flame said:
Godolphin back with most on Sunday (5th) and Tuesday (7th).

They will be working several up Chippenham Hill on Saturday morning (11th April) , with a selection coming over the racecourse for a private gallop.

Ashram has done okay and is expected to go for the French 2000 Guineas.

Shaweel and Huntdown have also wintered smartly I'm told.

Ibn Khaldun could be making a belated reappearance in the Earl Of Sefton, taking on Twice Over, Pipedreamer and Spacious.

Topcat, Alwaary worked on Tuesday morning with Virtual on the Flat (Racecourse Side) doing no more than a 3/4 speed over 7f. Both horses seemed to look in fine fettle.
Click to expand...

Is Alwaary going to the Guineas?
 
I have read a few places that the crowded house rp trophy performance was a surprise but from what I was told about him before the tattersalls race he was expected to hose up in that. Connections were extremely extremely disappointed he got beat. As it turns out he was beaten by a subsequent breeders cup winner. His form is there to see. Connections imo have the horse on paper that has the potential to do the guineas and derby double if they choose to take it on. I suspect the biggest factor is if CH won the guineas would it damage his bredding value in the long term???
 
Warbler said:
If it has, then you'd have to say Crowded House looks very good, but then since we're using Ibn Khaldun as his benchmark, we can't be completely confident either:confused:

Hope that helps a bit
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It does cheers. I was never really a Crowded House man for the Guineas though, having Rainbow Quest as a sire is a huge indication that he`ll be more effective over 10 and 12f. I suppose if my position was that there were no really good performances from the 2yo`s last year then he`d be the choice because middle distance colts can take the race in really weak years (Golan)
I still think the key to the race is the Phoenix Stakes. McM and Art Connoisseur never had those conditions again, never had the chance to frank that form on fast ground.
 
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see something improve and although the trials tend to be maligned these days, my gut feeling is they might prove more informative than normal.

I've been slow to warm to Crowded House and my gut feeling is a mile will come to quick for him. At least he ran his figure on good ground, I tend to be slightly wary of those that do it on heavy, as the maths in the equation does increase the chances of geenrating a roguish faster time on a softer surface. My instinctive feeling is that the time is legitimate, and I need to therefore suspend my initial sceptisim about the horse and effectively revise the opinion more positively and trust the figure.
 
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