2000 Guineas

Bar the Bull said:
Yes, I agree Steve.

Is War Command your main fancy?

Personally, I think that the favourite will win, and I have a sneaky feeling that Outstrip will outrun his price.
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I've got Toormore and War Command to give Kingman the most to do at the trip. Australia and Kingston Hill are middle distance horses that may be worth backing for the Derby ahead of today's race, both ought to run well behind Kingman and then come on for the step up in trip.
 
Extract from a piece I wrote yesterday:

This could be a very good race. The top 5 in the table have won 16 races, including three G1s, from 18 starts and Outstrip also won at the top level in America.

Kingman was deeply impressive in the Greenham and looks the one to beat assuming the step up in trip doesn’t cause him a problem. I don’t think it will. The race commentator at the Greenham mentioned that it was taking Doyle time to pull the horse up. There appears to be some disagreement among time students, though. Nick Mordin and Dave Edwards say it was a slow race although for the life of me I can’t see where that assessment comes from. Timeform say their analysis backs up the visual impression. My 128 might, I reckon, be on the conservative side. Kingman was, on my time figures, 24lbs faster than the Fred Darling winner and 23lbs faster – before taking WFA into consideration – than the Spring Cup winner Gabrial’s Kaka. I had the latter on 107 for that win and he improved to 111 the other day. I think it is entirely possible that Kingman could hit at least 130 here, which would make him an odds-on shot. I can see one or two bookies offering 7/4 in the morning and, while I’m not into short shots, that might be irresistible.

It’s probably the quality of the opposition that’s keeping him odds against. Toormore defied his penalty in the Craven but a 10lbs defeat of The Grey Gatsby falls well short of the 26lbs beating dished out to the same beast by Kingston Hill in the Racing Post Trophy. Outstrip also beat the grey 11lbs last season. He’ll probably improve for the run but he’ll need to, even just to get back to the level that saw him take the National Stakes.

Lines with Giovanni Boldini suggest Outstrip can’t beat Toormore or War Command but I suspect Outstrip wasn’t at his best in the Dewhurst (Godolphin said he’d run ‘a nice race’, code for ‘disappointing’, and talked about putting him away but he must have started doing well at home again for them to send him across the Pond to win at the Breeders’ Cup). Godolphin’s True Story was impressive in the Fielden but they rely on Outstrip here. It suggests he’s pleased them immensely in preparation for this.

War Command ran to identical time ratings in the Coventry and Dewhurst and was maybe a precocious juvenile. He’ll be better suited to this trip than Australia and I can see him running very well without winning. I can’t say anything about Australia as he hasn’t been asked to do much but he will surely not be able to run to a 130+ figure until he gets to try further.

Kingston Hill will also be better at further but his Doncaster win reads very well. If he was trained at Ballydoyle he’d be half the price he is. The moderate overall time is probably down to the moderate pace over the first two furlongs, which suggests Kingston Hill is not in the least short of speed. He put plenty of daylight between himself and the others from the moment he hit the front over a furlong out but he might need some give in the ground to be seen at his best. I took 10/1 for Epsom this [Friday] morning in anticipation of a big run here.

The outsider that catches my eye is Bookrunner (33s now but likely to be longer in the morning unless Tom Segal gives it the nod, which I suspect he might do). He’s the least experienced of this field but the trainer knows how to win this race and he’ll surely improve a lot from the Djebel.

In summary, I think Kingman will win with a degree of comfort but I’ll be looking at other markets for scraps of value: without the fav, place only, etc. I think Kingston Hill will be in a scrap with Toormore, War Command, Outstrip, Bookrunner and maybe Australia (if he’s as good as they say) for the minor honours.
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Australia looks a very special animal to me........a touch of Nijinsky about him.

Kingman has beaten some ordinary horses but he also looks the part.

Should be a very good race but I am in the Australia camp.

I'm going for a

1. Australia

2. War Command

3. Kingman
 
Took 33s on Bookrunner a few days ago - hadnt seen that Tom Segal had tipped him today

If I had a free £10 it would be on War Command
 
I also did Bookrunner ante post, but it looks such a good Guineas, he might be lacking. Form not as impressive, but clocked very good time on his AW win last year and any of four could have won the Djebel. Also thought Segal would have gone for it. If Kingman is not a superstar, they got their excuses in early.
 
Not exactly a bold call here but considering how big Outstrip looked as a two year old I'll eat my hat if he trains on - won't win (or place, or finish in the first half of the field).

There - setting myself up for a huge fall :)

Martin
 
I have the impression if the same race/time/horses etc was run in the UK rather than France, the Djebel would be classified as a poor trial. I think the profile of French horses (their being French, that is) makes people consider them value. Whether they are all unplaced or fill the 1-2-3 today is rather beside the point, I think in general they are too often considered value when this is probably not the case.
 
Tanlic said:
Australia looks a very special animal to me........a touch of Nijinsky about him.

Kingman has beaten some ordinary horses but he also looks the part.

Should be a very good race but I am in the Australia camp.

I'm going for a

1. Australia

2. War Command

3. Kingman
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If Kingman has beaten ordinary horses (and I’d take issue with that: Night Of Thunder is very smart and going places) then Australia has beaten the even more ordinary. After a couple of maidens he looked smart in his Group 3, but he’s a middle distance colt whereas Kingman is a miler. If you fancy Australia back him ahead of today’s race for the Derby on the expectation of a good showing behind Kingman in this.

With Australia and Kingston Hill middle distance types, at this trip I've gone 1) Kingman 2) Toormore 3) War Command

See:

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_2000_guineas_preview.htm

http://horseracingstrategyanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/
 
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Australia might need to be Nijinsky to win what looks to be such a good guineas on paper . He is rather more stoutly bred than that legend too.

Not impossible of course .
 
Yes. Camelot beat a substandard bunch to get his bid for the TC under way.

We've speculated in the past about our figures for winners. Where Camelot was in the low 120s and even Sea The Stars was maybe a few pounds better on the day before going on eventually to surpass 130, the better recent winners who were milers (eg Kings Best, Haafhd, etc) hit the high 120s in this race. If Kingman can, as I believe, exceed 130, it's game over.
 
In a good renewal a proper miler usually wins. I'm on Toormore and think it'll be either him, Kingman or War Command
 
Backed Toormore a while ago and a little on Kingman and War Command today so hope you're right


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