2008 Arc

Utterly bizarre, but in this case I do not think the trainer can be blamed. Sounds just like they know he is not the horse he was, the owners (who plan to stand him at stud) clearly do not want to see him beat again, missing the Arc and the Breeders Cup and aiming him at the easiest option.

To be honest I would be surprised if he ran again at all, connections could have come up with something a bit more believable though!
 
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With such a distance to the bend the draw isn't much of a factor in the Arc IMO. Getting shuffled back can be to a horse's benefit given the usual strong pace. Worst excuse ever.
 
Weird. I have a position on him but I`m not even bothered, his last run in Ireland didn`t not have ideal Arc prep written all over it. Love to see him win at Newmarket though.
 
An extraordinary decision by Jaber Abdullah ? You could see that Hughes had been sent to Coventry after the KG as he went from first choice to persona non grata for JA's horses - but Richard Hills ! Probably, the last jockey most people would want to see on a difficult hold up horse ????
 
I start thinking Bolger is taking the p**. He is simply not bothered what members of the public think about him, and his excuses must go down as english/irish humor.
 
as for hughes / hills: Well, 11 rides, 2 wins and various excuses later it might just be time for a new pair of hands at the reins. I wouldn´t have gone for Hills either, though.
 
Well, sorry about that, but does anybody take Bolgers public statements serious anymore? I don´t. "The Derby is not important, he won´t run" "Oh, he will run", "The horse is fine and working really well" "The horse is retired" " We are back to square 1 with the filly and really do not know whats wrong with her" - And with New Approach " He is in three races and shall ran in two of them" - now he is running exactly in the one that would not have been possible had he gone for two races.

You might want to find excuses why he is quoted like that all the time, I would perfer him to be quiet and let the horses do the talking. New Approach won a very weak Irish Champion Stakes and - if watching the actual race - it wasn´t plain sailing and Bolger still told us it was. Sure enough he is a good trainer etc., but his public statements - or at least his quotes in the Racing Post - are not convincing.
 
Ardross said:
An extraordinary decision by Jaber Abdullah ? You could see that Hughes had been sent to Coventry after the KG as he went from first choice to persona non grata for JA's horses - but Richard Hills ! Probably, the last jockey most people would want to see on a difficult hold up horse ????
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Just a weird decision, Hughes is not without his faults but Hills cannot be seen as an improvement!?!?
 
I will happily now lay (even for a small loss) previous arc bets on Youmzain.

I'd say something if the horse was a front runner.

All jokes aside ... Richard Hills is a 7 pound penalty.
 
Don't get me wrong I knew he was a coconut well before the Derby debacle,it's the Irish/English humour that's confusing me. Is it like German/Austrian humour ? ;)
 
I know on Betfair Hills and Hughes come in for stick in seemingly equal amounts. However I am pretty shocked Hills is replacing Hughes. Granted Hughes is not the strongest in a finish (probably due to his height and the constant scales battle taking their toll) but he is a master craftsman at switching horses off, and is poetry in motion when he gets up on the right animal. Hills deserves all the stick he gets. He is in a top job because of the loyalty of Sheikh Hamdan not because of his ability. You only have to look at the dearth of outside rides he gets to understand the lack of regard he is held in by the training fraternity.

Moving on to New Approach. This amazed me too. With Arcs usually run in testing ground surely this would have been a plus. Also for stud values wouldn't a defeat of his elders at 12f mean more than another defeat of them at Newmarket over 10f? My first reaction was that maybe he will be kept in training next year and they want to avoid a gruelling race against the "super" Zarkava this time around, but bag a potentially softer Gp 1 to round off the season. Maybe he will run for Godpolphin next year as a much needed Gp 1 standard bearer following this term's sad experience for the "boys in blue".

If he is to be retired I can understand the logic in taking the easier option rather than go to stud as just another sub standard Derby winner. But for the public it would be far better to see the English Derby winner go to Longchamp for a showdown with Zarkava and possibly DOM.

The draw is often mentioned as being quite key to success in Arc's and I think Bolger has a point. Since 1988 and excluding 2000 and 2006 when the field sizes were 10 or less, over 73% of winners have come from single figure draws. For runners-up the figure is lower at 63%, but this still shows that single figure draws provide horses in the Arc with a significant advantage. Of the double figure winners, they were made up of either exceptional horses (Suave Dancer, Dalakhani) or horses that raced prominently (Carroll House, Sakhee). The only average winner drawn in double figures to win with a hold up ride was Subotica.

So I guess Bolger's thinking is this - I cannot determine the draw, and if he gets drawn wide he will be damned as he is probably not exceptional, and his running style has been radically modified so as to be held up, so he cannot be raced to into the van as that will set him alight, confuse the hell out of him and he will end up tailed off with the petrol gauge on empty.
 
But the races NA has won well, he won racing prominently and even making all, iirc
So I'm doubly confused - why not let the horse do what he wants to do instead of intentionally frustrating him, when it's been proved not to work already?
 
Who ever said that Bolger has realised that the horse is not the horse he was is right. He's going to try and sneak another Grp 1 and retire.
 
Headstrong said:
But the races NA has won well, he won racing prominently and even making all, iirc
So I'm doubly confused - why not let the horse do what he wants to do instead of intentionally frustrating him, when it's been proved not to work already?
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I got the impression Bolger started training him to settle and I presume from what he said if you train them to settle then it is different to training a front runner - I am no expert, far from it, but this was how I read his comments around the time of the Derby and leading up to the International. So I suspect that to change his training programme/style may not be as easy as simply adopting different tactics as this may send the horse the wrong signal and light him up.

I do agree though, from memory the restraint shown in the Derby by Manning was due to stamina concerns which were roundly disproven in that race. So one would imagine that adopting front running tactics in the Arc, or at least sitting just off the pace would help overcome the disadvantage of a high draw.

Touching on my other point, have the Maktoums definitely confirmed he goes to stud at the end of this season? Usually they are sporting enough to keep their better horses in training at 4+. And Bin Suroor must be desperate to get his hands on a decent animal again.
 
Don't really have a strong view on the race this year, though I've had a dabble on Papal Bull at 40's Each Way.

Good ground seems likely, likely strong gallop should suit as well and he showed that he is, IMO, a (un)genuine Group 1 performer given his conditions in the King George. I'm not saying he'll beat Duke of Marmalade, but he isn't a 40/1 shot either IMO.
 
Could well be this year's surprise second place. Youmzain @ 66/1, Pride @ 11/1, Westerner @ 16/1, Cherry Mix @ 33/1, Mubtaker @ 25/1...
 
trackside528 said:
Don't really have a strong view on the race this year, though I've had a dabble on Papal Bull at 40's Each Way.

Good ground seems likely, likely strong gallop should suit as well and he showed that he is, IMO, a (un)genuine Group 1 performer given his conditions in the King George. I'm not saying he'll beat Duke of Marmalade, but he isn't a 40/1 shot either IMO.
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I was saying exactly the same to Rory the other day, and also flagged him up Ew in the Gallops News last week.

I actually quite like Papal Bull, I don't think he is ungenuine, he's just a bit of a headcase.
 
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