2008 Arc

I have backed Soldier Of Fortune from big prices down since the summer. But he needs soft ground, Good To Soft would be borderline for him. If they get as much rain as possible I will be pretty confident. Take a look back at the Irish Derby and just look not only how he wins but how he absolutely relishes testing conditions.
 
Galileo said:
I have backed Soldier Of Fortune from big prices down since the summer. But he needs soft ground, Good To Soft would be borderline for him. If they get as much rain as possible I will be pretty confident. Take a look back at the Irish Derby and just look not only how he wins but how he absolutely relishes testing conditions.
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Yes I was aware that you liked him alright. The day he won the Irish Derby he was unbeatable in the conditions so I agree that if he gets genuine soft ground he wins. On at a few good prices but not as long as you have been ranting and raving about him :D
 
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Desmond Stoneham​


THE going at Longchamp on Saturday had officially dried out to a penetrometer reading of 3.2 – the equivalent of good - but some of the jockeys riding there felt that the ground was softer.

Christophe Soumillon, who rides Arc favourite Zarkava, said: "It's something between 3.4 (good to soft) and 3.6 (soft)."

Olivier Peslier added: "It's good to soft and if there's no rain it will be like a thick carpet."

Clerk of the course Christian Delporte said: "It's a beautiful day today and the track is drying but rain is definitely forecast tonight and tomorrow morning.

“The ground is pretty firm underneath the top layer and it won't take much rain to make it soft. We have kept and 18 metre strip railed off for tomorrow's big meeting and that should be just a little firmer than the rest of the track."
 
The time of Paco Boy today would suggest the ground is slow side of Good

he ran just 0.2 seconds faster than standard..as he is probably a 122 horse he should have run about 1.5 seconds faster than their standard to make it genuine middle of good ground. 1.3 seconds slower than middle Good makes it Good verging Good/Soft this afternoon.

Some of the other times also point to the same going

so we will need a weather check

does it dry quick there?
 
From what I can see this years race is squarely between DUKE OF MARMALADE & SOLDIER OF FORTUNE.

The Duke is not one I want on the ground at the moment or obviously any slower. His form lists 1 win on supposed slow ground..27 April this year...the ground wasn't slow on that occasion as the time clearly indicates. There is no way I can back him unless the ground really dries up...unlikely??

Soldier Of Fortune looks a real good bet on this type of ground and will carry my few shekels tomorrow...unless a miracle happens with the ground..then I would swap to DOM.

Not really interested in the rest tbh..including the filly..she has a bit to find..may find it but SOF looks solid bet material to me.
 
Is Soldier of Fortune better than Youmzain? It`s very debatable, if there is anything in it it`s only a pound or two. And yet the former is half the price of Channon`s charge. The great thing about this Arc though is you can back both of them and still have two value bets, that is how ridiculous the odds on Zarkava and Duke of Marmalade are. They make the race from a punting point of view.
 
I wonder if they have shut the books for a while to reflect the fact that DOM is now virtually certain to run? I'm sure AOB /Ballydoyle are runnign both because the ground is marginal in favour of either.

God I hope Murtagh is right - http://www.racingpost.co.uk/news/ne...&category=International Zone&story_uid=997158

I was told during the Dunkalk/GLs scenario that AOB was virtually determined to run DOM in the Arc, hence my putting in a bid for a decent price on BF which I got LOL (hence also my remark about GLs having the last laugh over Dundalk! who were putting on a race for a horse v unlikely to run in it! though no doubt they are not 'paying the purse')

PS I entirely agree with Euro, esp that there is a good case for a sizeable e/w on both Youmzain and SOF. I thinkt he rac eis between the three colts, I would place lay Zarkava if I laid! It needs real warriors to be placed let alone win this one
 
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He has had no sort of Arc prep. Dylan Thomas got away with it last year because he had a class advantage over the field. DoM has not got that luxury because he is not quite as good as DT and it is a stronger race this year.
 
as the ground stands at the moment I can't see how DOM is marginal..the ground is against him now..it will have to dry out to suit him

looks a non runner to me
 
I meant the ground was marginal between the two Ballydoyle runners, thought I'd worded it OK but cleqarly not! - ie it's *in between* what SOF and DOM ideally need

RP report on the going, up not long ago - usual spin form the Frogs!

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Desmond Stoneham​

THE going at Longchamp on Saturday had officially dried out to a penetrometer reading of 3.2 � the equivalent of good - but some of the jockeys riding there felt that the ground was softer.

Christophe Soumillon, who rides Arc favourite Zarkava, said: "It's something between 3.4 (good to soft) and 3.6 (soft)."

Olivier Peslier added: "It's good to soft and if there's no rain it will be like a thick carpet."

Clerk of the course Christian Delporte said: "It's a beautiful day today and the track is drying but rain is definitely forecast tonight and tomorrow morning.

The ground is pretty firm underneath the top layer and it won't take much rain to make it soft. We have kept and 18 metre strip railed off for tomorrow's big meeting and that should be just a little firmer than the rest of the track." >>
 
I don't take much notice that stuff to be honest Head..those pen readings are nonsensical to me

rather use my own judgement

I think any rain at all will make SOF the winner tomorrow..I don't like DOM on this ground even without rain
 
Euronymous said:
He has had no sort of Arc prep. Dylan Thomas got away with it last year because he had a class advantage over the field.
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And disqualifying him of course would have meant that a horse trained by an ex English footballer won France's bigest race. There's a lovely still in the Weekender which shows Dylan basically getting it on the nod with Youmzain and maximum retraction in his stride.

Dylan became the first horse to win the Arc having raced in every month from April to September for over 30 years I read this week. This is the size of the task they're trying to take on with DoM. It's clearly rare and asking quite a bit against the laws of averages to achieve it consecutively.

As regards the chances of the filly I'm perhaps a little bit persuaded by Paul Haigh this week who suggests there is no reason to believe she can't beat them.

Zarkava has twice beaten Goldikova by 2L's and 4.5L's
Goldikova has twice beaten Natagora by 2.5L's and 4.75L's
That's basically making Natagora some 4.5L's to 9.25L's behind Zarkava.
Natagora is probably the top filly whose taken on the colts to date, and with an unfavourable draw, only went down by 1.75L's to Vision D'Etat in the Prix Jockey Club. There's no reason on these lines to think therefore, that Zarkava isn't the top 3yo on offer. She would be a theoretical 2.75L's to 7.5L's quicker than Vision D'Etat.

She also won Vermielle in a time 1.40 secs faster than the Niel winner which would be about between 7L's to 8.25L's, despite Vision D'Etat being all out to win, and Zarkava surrendering a 6L lead out of the stall and still recording a race record time. I suspect she'll be coming late with Youmzain, and might find one of the colts too obstinate to get by, but which one?

All the stats point to Vision D'Etat, and when in doubt I tend to say go with the winner of the Niel. It's just that all the evidence I can garner from both the clock and form book sugest she's better than the colt. If she is the next 'Allez France' wonder horse, and to date she's matched her, then asking the older colts to give her some 11Ibs might look impossible with hindsight.

No betting proposition though, so I'm increasingly leaning towards Soldier of Fortune. MInd you what price O'Brien to get disqualified for team tactics and take the whole bloody trio out. The utilisation of the pace maker will be very interesting and this is where I think the race could well be settled
 
It'll be one of the training performances of the decade if O'Brien can get SoF to win this off no prep.

Duke Of Marmalade's last two races have seen him somewhat scrape home against rivals he should have been putting away comfortably. Again, O'Brien will have needed to work his magic to freshen him up enough to win this.

Regardless of the ground, the winner is elsewhere.
 
Warbler said:
Zarkava has twice beaten Goldikova by 2L's and 4.5L's
Goldikova has twice beaten Natagora by 2.5L's and 4.75L's
That's basically making Natagora some 4.5L's to 9.25L's behind Zarkava.
Natagora is probably the top filly whose taken on the colts to date
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Goldikova and Darjina have both taken on colts. And Goldikova has improved a lot since those reversals behind Zarkava.
 
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