If in doubt back the Niel form. And in truth it's a simple rule that's worked well over the last 12 or so years, but right now I just don't think the form is particularly strong, and it can be too easily unpicked. The other thing I can't escape from is that the best 3yo French colt is injured and this just adds to me thinking there's something fraudulent about Vision D'Etat. I've tried to have a go race reading instead, and this has led me to think that DoM is the Ballydoyle horse, but the clue to my mind is in the pace maker that they've entered and the one that they scratched at the 5 day stage, rather than any Murtagh preference, as he was always likely to row in with DoM.
Red Rock Canyon has done the duties for DoM in the Juddmonte, King George, Prince of Wales and Tattersalls Gold Cup this season. Song of Hiawatha normally does the job for SoF as that horse needs a stronger pace. Indeed, he did it in the Niel last year (strictly speaking he did it in the Arc too, although it would be debatable whom he was doing it for, but given that Dylan would be at the edge of his range over 12F's in a fast race, I think you might guess that they regarded SoF as the better chance last year if they were using Hiawatha). Song of Hiawatha also turned up to break trail for SoF in both Coronation Cup and Grand Prix du St Cloud this year too. That Red Rock Canyon lines up and Hiawatha doesn't, is in my mind a stronger indicator than Murtagh taking the ride on DoM.
This decision I believe is important as it's likely to try and affect the early pace and ultimately how the race might pan out. The word 'pacemaker' when applied to Red Rock Canyon is something of an anathema I'm increasingly thinking. 'Pace stifler' might be more appropriate?. Look at DoM' s TS and RPR's for the 4 races RRC's done the duties for him for this year.
98 - 128 = Juddmonte (30Ibs)
117 - 128 = King George (11Ibs)
103 - 130 = Prince of Wales (27Ibs)
40 - 126 = Tatts Gold Cup (86Ibs)
Thats a big discrepancy between the level of performance achieved in form, and the level of performance achived on the clock. It suggests to me that RRC is deployed to set a steady pace for DoM rather than a testing gallop. Compare it to how SoF seemingly needs to have a race set up for him.
114 - 126 = GP St Cloud (12Ibs)
106 - 124 = Coronation Cup (18Ibs)
126 - 126 = Prix Niel (0Ibs)
127 - 127 = Irish Derby (0Ibs)
Spanish Harem did the honours in the Irish Derby, but the principal is the same. The Arc was also run at a fast pace (about 1 pound wrong) with Hiawatha doing the honours for either Dylan or SoF.
The King George holds an insight, and a terrible de ja vu feeling, if things pan out the same way. What basically happened is that RRC went to the front and then slowed it up for 3 furlongs, effectively controlling the pace, rather than forcing it. There is suspicion in my mind still, that DoM not unlike Dylan, is right on the edge of his limits at 12F's and the faster they run, the more likely that is to be tested. At Ascot horses that had proven stamina such as Lucarno and Youmzain just sat off this pace and did nothing to dispute it. It was perhaps not surprising therefore that having conserved energy the more accomplished 10F performer, was able to put in a devastating finish along with Papal Bull from near the front and bring his sprinting to the fore, by effectively closing the race distance down, rather than pushing it out.
Here in lies the quandary. There's at least four horses who come to my mind who would benefit from a more searching pace having got form at further (Getaway, Meisho Samson, Youmzain) and to a lesser extent SoF given that he's got wins in fast times on heavy ground. If, as seems likely, Ballydoyle try and tee things up for DoM, what are these horses likely to do? Especially as the same tactics are likely to play into Zarkava's hands too, for similar reasons.
If a slowing of the pace is retaliated to by someone else picking it up, who will be the beneficiaries? or I suppose more pertinently, what is the likelihood of someone forcing it. Is Youmzain likely to ridden aka Ascot again?
