2008 Arc

EC1 said:
Alleged had an extremely hard race in the leger against Dunfermline..still won the Arc
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Depends who you speak to EC1 ~ my uncle John railed for years about that Leger, claiming that Alleged was given an easy so the Queen could have a classic win against the colts in her jubilee year. I'm not sure I agree, but it's at least an interesting conspiracy theory.
 
if she breaks slowly as she did yesterday she is more than likely to meet plenty of trouble in running

add in her runnig style and she probably had a harder race than it appeared yesterday

she is as likely to appear an unlucky loser as she is to win the race
 
EC1 I am surprised you are not far more bullish about Zarkava on here. Unless I have got you mixed up, you post as Fist of Fury on TRF and FOF claims Zarkava is the biggest certainty since Sea Bird won his Arc.
 
Galileo said:
EC1 I am surprised you are not far more bullish about Zarkava on here. Unless I have got you mixed up, you post as Fist of Fury on TRF and FOF claims Zarkava is the biggest certainty since Sea Bird won his Arc.
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EC1 has said that, but the two are not exactly similar characters.
 
Sea Bird was a 145 horse

I see Zarkava as a Divine Proportions 123 horse, no more than that.


Pride , Ouija or Balanchine were a better fillies and didnt win the Arc.
 
Bar the fillly, nothing really excites me in the L'Arc and I wouldn't be backing her. If Youmzaim drifts to around 20s I would have a small play on him, but I don't feel this years is a vintage L'Arc by any stretch of the imagination.
 
Irish Stamp said:
Can´t help but think that Vision DÉtat would be half the price if trained by Fabre.
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And if he was trained in England or Ireland, he'd be even shorter than that. You can look at form, trends, stats until you're blue in the face, but at the end of the day, punters and press are patriotic.

As an example this was what the RP said of the French 1000 Guineas
"As with the colts' race, this had nowhere near the strength in depth of the Newmarket equivalent"
and the first three from that race haven't turned out too badly I suppose.


Just as a pointer to what the PMU might look like on the day, here's a French website which pretty much sums up what the feeling is here
http://www.zone-turf.fr/actu/galop/arc-2008----vers-un-duel-zarkava---vision-d-etat--1015.html
Even if you can't read the rest, the title says enough and sums up a lot of the feeling here, basically that the French see things as a two horse race, so if you fancy either, the 7/4 or 9s available are still worth taking.
 
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The French don't come anywhere near dominating the PMU market though. The pool is incredibly small given the nature of the race. English and Irish (and Japanese) punters at the course on the day make a fair dig into it.
 
sunybay said:
I see Zarkava as a Divine Proportions 123 horse, no more than that.
Pride , Ouija or Balanchine were a better fillies and didnt win the Arc.
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That's a massive call considering she hasn't raced against colts yet. She's a worthy favourite as she's absolutely pissed up in every race so far in staggering times.
 
Longchamp said:
As an example this was what the RP said of the French 1000 Guineas
"As with the colts' race, this had nowhere near the strength in depth of the Newmarket equivalent"
and the first three from that race haven't turned out too badly I suppose.
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Brilliant spot :)
 
Melendez said:
The French don't come anywhere near dominating the PMU market though. The pool is incredibly small given the nature of the race. English and Irish (and Japanese) punters at the course on the day make a fair dig into it.
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If you ignore the Deep Impact race, where the average bet on the horse on course was around 800 Euros, after racing we were with a group of Japanese who had tickets literally with 1000s on them, you'll find you're well wrong.

In 2005 when Motivator was backed like there was no tomorrow by all the English on course, here are the figures for the full day's racing.
Total 34.7 million Euros staked
Off course 31.6 million
On course 3.1 million.
 
Fair enough, I stand corrected. My reason for saying that was that in Hurricane Run's year I was over and remember looking at a terminal for the Arc betting, fairly close to the off, which said there was about €700,000 in the pool which I had thought amazingly low for a race of that nature. Maybe I was looking at the wrong thing, or the off course money hadn't been included.

Edit: After a bit of googling it appears the total PMU pool (on and off course) was 3.1m for the days racing - not conclusive but from the Irish Independent ....

"Deep Impact, with his tsunami of Japanese supporters and their tidal wave of converted Yen, was trading at 1.1, or 1/10 in bookie language. Of the total Arc pool of €2.948m, €1.6m was bet on Deep Impact. The Japanese swell had increased Arc day turnover from €3.1m last year to €4.9m on last Sunday."
 
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2 questions about the PMU...

1. What price would you expect Zarkava to start on the PMU?
2. Is there a lot of Japanese expected to travel over to watch Meisho Samson? If so, would this result in him being overbet?

I don't imagine either the Japanese contingent attending or PMU price of Meisho Samson would be anything like Deep Impact, but wondering would this and the price of Zarkava make the market for everything else?
 
Andrew Hurley said:
2 questions about the PMU...

1. What price would you expect Zarkava to start on the PMU?
2. Is there a lot of Japanese expected to travel over to watch Meisho Samson? If so, would this result in him being overbet?

I don't imagine either the Japanese contingent attending or PMU price of Meisho Samson would be anything like Deep Impact, but wondering would this and the price of Zarkava make the market for everything else?
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To try and answer
1. I'd guess about 1.7. Even with all the doubts (stamina, fitness, etc) last Sunday she was 1.3, and basically in France, betting is really guided by the newspapers. So when a horse has the full front page as on Sunday, you can guess the horse will be really short before the on-course betting starts. Also on Sunday all 20 newspapers in the tips table tipped her, which will also be pretty much the case in 3 weeks time. The problem is though with only 60% stakes returned in winnings, even an odds on Zarkava isn't going to get you a great price on SOF or Youmzain, you might get a couple of points but no more than that.
2. As for the Japanese, I just don't know. When Deep Impact ran I didn't go on the Saturday, but my brother called from the course where there were literally 1000s and told me it would be odds on no question the next day. So I guess the Saturday will be a good guide, although I don't expect anything like a Deep Impact crowd, as that horse was thought of more as a God than anything else, Meisho Samson is just a very good horse.

Hope this helps, but really it's all academic, she won't lose.:D
 
Andrew Hurley said:
Thanks

Probably a silly question ... why are only 60% stakes returned? in winnings?
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I've looked again, it's 73% but this covers all the different bet types, which don't pay out to the same percentage.
Of the money kept back
13% goes to the government, in tax basically,
and the rest (14%) going back into racing in some form or other (mainly prizemoney).

Win bets are returned at about 65%.
 
Galileo said:
EC1 I am surprised you are not far more bullish about Zarkava on here. Unless I have got you mixed up, you post as Fist of Fury on TRF and FOF claims Zarkava is the biggest certainty since Sea Bird won his Arc.
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If EC1 is Fist of Fury I'm Santa Claus! EC1 is far more eloquent- wonder if he's the old EC from TRF who stormed out in high dudgeon some years ago....
 
carvillshill said:
If EC1 is Fist of Fury I'm Santa Claus! EC1 is far more eloquent- wonder if he's the old EC from TRF who stormed out in high dudgeon some years ago....
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From the Battle of the Forums thread, by EC1:

"not that you need me in my present form

as I post as Fist Of Fury over there :dork: ...I could be accused of divided loyalties :nuts:

good luck"

Can I have a bike for Christmas?
 
the Fists Of Fury hint was a joke Rory..I did tell someone that at the time in a PM :D...only ever post as EC...or with a 1 ont end...always have on every board

Hi Carvillshill..hows it going?

didn't storm out of TRF...given marchings orders by Corm I'm afraid...banned....my good friend CliveX played his part in that...but for some reason..he is still able to post :p

that will teach me to stick up for Stav and his book :eek:

I quite like Fists Of Fury mind you :)
 
EC1 said:
the Fists Of Fury hint was a joke Rory..I did tell someone that at the time in a PM :D...only ever post as EC...or with a 1 ont end...always have on every board

Hi Carvillshill..hows it going?

didn't storm out of TRF...given marchings orders by Corm I'm afraid...banned....my good friend CliveX played his part in that...but for some reason..he is still able to post :p

that will teach me to stick up for Stav and his book :eek:

I quite like Fists Of Fury mind you :)
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My mistake then EC, thought you were all the one!
 
Carvills

you a new boy on here then?....thought I hadn't seen you post much

are you a bit fed up over yonder?

it's better here I reckon

I don't get away we owt here...they are keen bar stewards ;)

keep me on me toes:cool:
 
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