I have backed Fame And Glory at some decent prices for this, but I would like to see a bit of market confidence behind him. The yard did not expect him to beat STS at Leopardstown and it showed in the market - he was friendless. Money talks alot of the time with Ballydoyle so it would be nice to see some confidence displayed in the market. Right now it looks pretty lukewarm.
2009 Arc.
- Thread starter Euronymous
- Start date
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think he will only be really well backed if STS is pulled out. Dylan Thomas was hardly well backed when he won it though.
The excuses from Ballydoyle never end re the thrashings their horses get from Sts .Those put forward for f &g's defeat at Leopardstown are simply laughable puff . Most ridiculous of all is the guff about not locking horns too early .what race was he watching ? One in a parallel universe? Sts cantered all over him .
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Colin Phillips
At the Start
Shads, I didn't like the idea of you suffering from withdrawal symptoms so I've lifted this from TRF:
"Youmzain looks a smashing bet @ 25/1+."
"Youmzain looks a smashing bet @ 25/1+."
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I think the point they are making is that because they did not lock horns in Ireland that Fame has had a better prep for the Arc after his break following the Irish Derby.
STS after all has been on the go since the Guineas, it would be remarkable if he were to go on to win the Arc.
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crazyhorse
At the Start
Mill Reef did it, and STS did things not many other horses have done before him, and he has been thriving on his racing, too. never seen a horse at that level in all my years going racing that has been so laid back, cool and relaxed as he has been so far. Even though I mentioned Conduit I really really hope STS just canters home in Paris, and I firmly believe he will win, and I for one will be there to cheer him home, big time.
It's not unprecedented but would nevertheless be remarkable. Mill Reef was an extraordinary horse. STS needs to be extraordinary to achieve this.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
- Joined
- Aug 19, 2005
- Messages
- 4,337
Fantastic, sounds like a mad rush across town from Gare Du Nord for me then!
Shadow Leader
At the Start
- Joined
- Nov 9, 2003
- Messages
- 9,884
Shads, I didn't like the idea of you suffering from withdrawal symptoms so I've lifted this from TRF:
"Youmzain looks a smashing bet @ 25/1+."
Oh well, somebody has to think the horse has a chance of winning I suppose, that'll be an expensive lesson for them.
Had Ardross been drinking heavily before making his two posts on this page?!
Nope struggling with working out how to post from an iphone !
It just lessens respect people have for AOB as a quite brilliant trainer when he spouts all this crap .
If he had said - we think F & G will improve for stepping up to a mile and a half and we think we have a chance of beating STS at that trip especially if he is feeling the effects of a long season that would have been perfectly valid . The endless rubbish about STS getting the run of the race and there being a problem with their horse just makes him seem like a bad loser .
Isinglass
At the Start
I think Sea The Stars is an extraordinary horse, and I do not see how there could be any doubt about that. I hope he wins, we need some flat superstars. I like Fame and Glory a lot and Aidan continues to surprise even me with how he can produce magic on the right day. But I believe Stars will only be beaten if he is below par F & G is not as good as him. If F & G wins it will be more down to Aidan's training and a long season than the horses. And let's face it Ox is a genius too.
It may be far too much to hope for, but would be wonderful if the race could be run fairly and we see the best horse win on the day instead of tactics.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Which is amazing to me. For a horse to be odds-on for a genuine Championship Group 1 contest everything should be in it's favour. Fact is the horse has not had the ideal Arc preparation and has never been asked the question over a fast run 12f. Of course he can win, but i'm not even sure he's the most likely winner. I've been musing over this all day.
The Arc usually goes to a 3yo colt who has been lightly raced over the summer and given a prep in September. I think the WFA is in their favour (the best 3yo's being pretty much mature by the time October rolls around) and the fact is that (with certain exceptions) the best 3yo's tend to contest the Arc, whereas the best 4yo's tend to have either been retired the previous year, found it impossible to get to the Arc through injury, or run in too many mid summer races to be fully effective once October comes round.
Of course older horses can and do win the race but certain conditions need to be met:
a) The horse in question is lightly raced as a 4yo and avoids the King George(Sakhee)
b) The horse needs to be the sort of teak tough animal who can take his racing and remain at his peak (Dylan Thomas)
c) The horse needs to profit from one or more of his better 3yo rivals being given bad rides (Marienbard)
The stats point resoundingly to Fame and Glory and Cavalryman. I don't think Sea the Stars will win, but like Zarkava last year he could be a freak - and with freaks the normal rules don't really apply.
Good post Euro though I'm not sure how much I agree with it.
If you consider the Eclipse and Irish Derby were only a week apart, Sea the Stars has only run one race in the middle of summer, in the Juddmonte. And, Fame had an extra run at the beginning of the season, running in 2 Derby trials to Sea the Stars one run in the Guineas.
Oxx has done a really good job with Sea the stars, and by all accounts he is still as well as ever. He dismissed Fame so easily in Ireland, it is hard to see that horse turning the form around, and it looked to me like STS would improve for further.
If you consider the Eclipse and Irish Derby were only a week apart, Sea the Stars has only run one race in the middle of summer, in the Juddmonte. And, Fame had an extra run at the beginning of the season, running in 2 Derby trials to Sea the Stars one run in the Guineas.
Oxx has done a really good job with Sea the stars, and by all accounts he is still as well as ever. He dismissed Fame so easily in Ireland, it is hard to see that horse turning the form around, and it looked to me like STS would improve for further.
Nice summation Euro, but i think your last comment sums it up for me. From what we've seen of STS, he IS a pure freak. One in a million. Might not have been tested over a fast run 12F but he has matured throughout the season and will no doubt be much better equipped with stamina at this stage of the season. Also hasn't really had to go to the well yet imo. Ballydoyle missed their chance at Epsom to do the impossible, and beat Sea The Stars (as a 3yo ).
Having said all that, don't get me wrong, i don't think it will be a cake walk by any means. But i do think STS will pull out enough to get home in front of F&G. The forecast being the best value bet in the race for me.
). Having said all that, don't get me wrong, i don't think it will be a cake walk by any means. But i do think STS will pull out enough to get home in front of F&G. The forecast being the best value bet in the race for me.
Bar the Bull
At the Start
He is more of a freak than Zarkava, anyway.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Fame's first two runs were in trials whereas STS has been contesting Group 1's all year, for me there is quite a difference there. AOB has only had to produce his charge at his peak once or twice. I just have to oppose STS at the price.
Roddy Owen
At the Start
It took 90 years of very careful and selective breeding to produce Zarkava. No freak just careful breeding.
Re STS, I think he will sluice up. Definitely still improving. Again very cleverly bred.
Re STS, I think he will sluice up. Definitely still improving. Again very cleverly bred.
26 left in the Arc this morning....certainly more than I thought.
Spanish Moon
Youmzain
Conduit
Vision D’Etat
Magadan
The Bogberry
Grand Couturier
Yeats
Steele Tango
Getaway
Tullamore
Hot Six
Alpine Rose
Dar Re Mi
Tangaspeed
La Boum
Beheshtam
Set Sail
Fame And Glory
Johann Zoffany
Grand Ducal
Hail Caesar
Sea The Stars
Board Meeting
Spanish Moon
Youmzain
Conduit
Vision D’Etat
Magadan
The Bogberry
Grand Couturier
Yeats
Steele Tango
Getaway
Tullamore
Hot Six
Alpine Rose
Dar Re Mi
Tangaspeed
La Boum
Beheshtam
Set Sail
Fame And Glory
Johann Zoffany
Grand Ducal
Hail Caesar
Sea The Stars
Board Meeting
That is 24 - are 2 missing - Stacelita ?