2009 Arc.

Hamm said:
It would be quite rare for an Arc winner (who was not in any way shape or form running a trial race) to have been so readily outclassed a month before the Arc.
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Most Arc winners go the trial route. I fail to understand the significance of this. Dubai Millenium would have torn apart the likes of Sinndar or Sakhee over 10f - that's what happens when 138/140 animals over 10f get to beat up on more stamina laden rivals.
 
Hamm said:
Just having a re-think on Fame and Glory, and asking myself what has he done this year to deserve his place in the Arc betting. The only thing I can come up with is a 5 length beating of Golden Sword, and the rest is potential, which is unusual for a horse so prominent in the Arc betting.

He was dismissed by Sea the Stars as a horse not in the same league, and perhaps Sea the Stars on decent ground is nigh on unbeatable here, on all known form.
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Never had a rethink myself Hamm.. Thats how ive always seen it

I suppose that his place in the market may be due to a lack of really top class older horses, but its all about potential isnt it?
 
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clivex said:
I suppose that his place in the market may be due to a lack of really top class older horses, but its all about potential isnt it?
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It isn't for me no. The form of the Irish Champion Stakes makes Fame And Glory the second best horse in the Arc, hence why he's second favourite.
 
Really? You have to really rely on the one line through MCM for that. Too easily swept aside by STS. As admirable as MCM is...i could hardly describe the form as completely solid
 
Who should be second favourite then? Stacelita looked limited in the Vermeille, Conduit is behind Fame on obvious formlines, Cavalryman fits the usual Arc profile but is relatively unproven, Sariska's form looks well behind what's needed. Actually, I better stop as i'm posting myself into topping up my Youmzain bet in the place market and I have more than is comfortable on Fame as it is.
 
Youmzain's form this year suggests he's not the same force he was in 2007 and 2008. He'll need more than Fallon and blinkers to get involved in the finish.
 
He's not had the same conditions this year, he looked to be carrying plenty of toe in the Coronation Cup but they didn't tire in front. He might or might not be the same horse, at the price i'm taking the chance. He loves Longchamp more than any other track.
 
I'd say the only thing wrong with the market is that Cavalryman should be a lot closer to Fame and STS should be a lot shorter.
 
I've taken a piece of Cavalryman because of the Fabre factor, but if he runs i'm willing to stand all my bets and take STS on. He's been on the go an awful long time.
 
Cavalryman is the only angle I have into the race really, he's too big given his connections and speed figures. I think Spanish Moon would have a cracking place shout if he lined up too.

Other than that, I agree about STS being on the go for a while but he just looks unbeatable, I'm taking him on because of his price and only his price.
 
Galileo said:
I was actually more impressed with Fame And Glory at Leopardstown than I thought I would be. He travelled and quickened better on the trip and ground than I thought he would - just beaten by a better horse.
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Agree with this, but at the same time agree with Hamm in that Sea The Stars brushed aside Fame And Glory a fair bit easier than I thought he would. Have a very hard time seeing F&G turn that form around on fast ground.

I wouldn't interpret O'Brien's comments today as particularly bullish. I seem to remember him saying Fame And Glory had 'done plenty' (or words to that effect) prior to Leopardstown only for him to predictably wheel out the stock quotes ('was just ready to start off' etc.) after the event.

He's in danger of venturing into the territory Paul Nichols has been inhabiting according to some forum members for some time.
 
trackside528 said:
I wouldn't interpret O'Brien's comments today as particularly bullish.
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Nor would I. I would imagine he (they) are hoping for some ease in the ground if they are to have serious hope of beating an on song STS - if they do and then manage to beat him they'll put it down to him improving for his break - rather than him actually revelling in his ideal conditions (soft ground and 12 furlongs) as opposed to 10 furlongs on near good ground.

The Nicholls comment is probably not that accurate given that O'Brien is protecting the horses stud rights as much as anything else. Nicholls seemed to take personal offence at any slight against (the great) Kauto Star.
 
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Galileo said:
The Nicholls comment is probably not that accurate given that O'Brien is protecting the horses stud rights as much as anything else. Nicholls seemed to take personal offence at any slight against (the great) Kauto Star.
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Fair point. Whatever about their respective intentions, I would take comments from both with a pinch of salt.
 
Vision D'Etat seems to be a forgotten horse but I thought he ran a nice trial in the Prix Foy and I have backed him each way in the w/o STS market.
 
davidjohnson said:
Youmzain's form this year suggests he's not the same force he was in 2007 and 2008. He'll need more than Fallon and blinkers to get involved in the finish.
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Someone speaks sense at last!!! He couldn't win then and he can't win now, blinkers and Fallon or no.
 
Euronymous said:
Who should be second favourite then? Stacelita looked limited in the Vermeille, Conduit is behind Fame on obvious formlines, Cavalryman fits the usual Arc profile but is relatively unproven, Sariska's form looks well behind what's needed. Actually, I better stop as i'm posting myself into topping up my Youmzain bet in the place market and I have more than is comfortable on Fame as it is.
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I sort of disagree with the Conduit bit. he got beat over 10f and, as a leger winner and really good stayer this was never going to be his trip, in fact he only won once over 10f in handicap class. I do like his prospects, and think he could well beat fame in the arc, but will struggle too to catch Sea, who will only run on "correct" ground anyway which incidently will also be the "right" ground for conduit, fast, which would, in my book, not suit fame too much.
 
Stoute has gone there with top class horses in the past and failed, so I give very little chance to a second rater like Conduit.
 
Aidans comments yesterday seemed genouine, and I think he really believes F & G will put up a challenging performance over this trip. But Sea the Stars looks to me a different class to the others. He keeps finding something extra all the time and the best is yet to come IMHO.
 
Galileo said:
What are the chances the French will put on plenty of water for the French filly?
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They will water, but not until late next week as they don't want a bog if the weather changes, and unfortunately if you have her that will be too late as she needs to be supplemented before then, and it looks like that won't be happening now.
 
Grey said:
Vision D'Etat seems to be a forgotten horse but I thought he ran a nice trial in the Prix Foy and I have backed him each way in the w/o STS market.
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For me Vision d'Etat was the horse to take out the the trials, clearly unfit, struggled to get into the race, but when things clicked, he finished really well without any real riding
 
Galileo said:
Nor would I. I would imagine he (they) are hoping for some ease in the ground if they are to have serious hope of beating an on song STS - if they do and then manage to beat him they'll put it down to him improving for his break - rather than him actually revelling in his ideal conditions (soft ground and 12 furlongs) as opposed to 10 furlongs on near good ground.
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All Flat trainers do this to a greater or lesser extent in an attempt to maximise stud values, but I think there is a real sense that Fame has been prepared for the Arc, whereas the Oxx colt is taking it in as he is so good. The Arc is not a penalty kick for any horse... I'm sticking with the one that has been prepared for the race and will find greater resources of stamina when push comes to shove. I'm quite sure that STS won't beat Fame as easily as he did in Ireland, if he beats him at all.
 
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