I usually have a decent idea by this stage who i want to back in the Arc but was struggling a little this year, so have been giving the race a little more thought this week.
I've already backed Spanish Moon at 100 and Cavalryman at 34, and think both are still improving and were too high in the betting, and though not obvious winners, I think they go there with a chance, and worth an investment at those odds (Cavalryman now shorter, but Spanish Moon still available at similar odds).
Of the more fancied runners, I'm not convinced by Staecilita and Sariska, and think both fillies may be a little overrated (the former by the form of the Prix de Diane not being inspiring, and the latter by running through a bog and beating a pacemaker), and you would hope an Arc winner would be better than those two. As admirable a horse as Conduit is, he seems to be a very good 1m4 horse who will win Group 1s, though not necessarily against the better Group 1 horses. I don't think Vision D'Etat truly stays a mile and a half - Champion Stakes at Newmarket would be the ideal race for him.
This leaves me with 2 horses - firstly, Youmzain! No derision please, but he is a dual runner up (should have been made an Arc winner in 2007 if the Stewards hadn't bottled it), the course and pace usually associated with an Arc plainly suit, and I don't think there is anywhere near the strength in depth this year as in previous years. He hasn't been at his best this year, but I think missing the King George will greatly improve his chances and at circa 50 on BF, he is certainly worth betting on.
The final one is Fame and Glory. I haven't been as convinced by him as early as others, and don't quite view him in the league of Irish Derby & Arc winners such as Sinndar, but nevertheless, in a year such as this, he is a deserving favourite. I can't see any of the other market leaders getting within a couple of lengths of him, and think the near 9/2 on Betfair is more than fair. The worry with him, and the reason i haven't bet as yet, is to attempt to understand the effect a run in a potentially top class renewal of the Irish Champion Stakes could have on him. For now, we are assuming this will be against Sea the Stars, but should we be? I would bet on the ground not being suitable for Sea the Stars if anything, and there must be a reasonable chance STS will not run, thereby allowing Fame and Glory a relatively easy race (to his ability; I can't see other challengers who'll give him a ridiculously hard race (AOB won't run Mastercraftsman against him if there is no STS)), and a perfect Arc warm-up.
