2009 Arc.

I've topped up my bet on Cavalryman, who is currently available at 27. I'm very surprised anyone could think the likes of Sariska have a better chance in the Arc than this fellow, and I can't see two main dangers in the Prix Niel (anyone care to correct me?) after which his price could turn very short. His price is all wrong, and to quite a large degree I think.

I'll mention again Spanish Moon, who if targeted at the Arc is a ridiculous price at 90 - does anyone know is he definitely going there? I think he'd have a chance though would be an ideal sort for the Breeders Cup Turf.
 
Hamm said:
I've topped up my bet on Cavalryman, who is currently available at 27. I'm very surprised anyone could think the likes of Sariska have a better chance in the Arc than this fellow, and I can't see two main dangers in the Prix Niel (anyone care to correct me?) after which his price could turn very short. His price is all wrong, and to quite a large degree I think.

I'll mention again Spanish Moon, who if targeted at the Arc is a ridiculous price at 90 - does anyone know is he definitely going there? I think he'd have a chance though would be an ideal sort for the Breeders Cup Turf.
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If you're backing Cavalryman through a form line with Mastery surely Monitor Closely after the Voltigeur wouldn't be a bad bet although i cant see any prices about him
 
I think there's plenty of improvement left in Cavalryman, he won a key trial and is likely to start a short priced favourite for the Niel, and if he were to win that, I imagine he would be in the low teens at best in the Betfair market, and could reach single figures.
 
I would certainly agree with you there I backed him after winning the Group 1 last time thinking he is bound to shorten. The arc is certainly going to be a cracker this year especially if there was good ground and sts turns up.
 
Ardross said:
If Stacelita stays this really looks like her race to me now barring fast ground and STS running.
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Just my view from over here, now the euphoria of the Diane is over and the form is starting to shape up. From the Diane, Saint-Alary and the Listed that Stacelita has won this year, only Board Meeting (Group 3) and Tassara (a Conditions race for non-Listed winners), nothing else that she's beaten this year has gone in since.

I know she's won easily, but to be honest, there's been nothing there to beat, no Goldikova, Halfway to Heaven, Modern Look, etc.

This time last year I couldn't see past Zarkava, but Stacelita is a good 10lbs inferior.
 
I think interpreting the Stacelita form as poor is dangerous, she routed her rivals and was in a different parish. I think she's far too short in the betting and is suffering from the Zarkava effect but I'd certainly not dismiss her just because of her form. The Vermeille should tell us more but it'll take something to beat last year's Vermeille which I still consider to be one of the best equine performances I've seen.

Agree with Hamm that Cavalryman is a big price. I also think Age of Aquarius is a cracking trading prospect at 320 on the machine. If he wins well at Doncaster, he'll almost certainly be heading to Paris.

Is there any news on potential Japanese runners? :D I wish a Deep Impact ran every year.
 
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Hamm said:
I've topped up my bet on Cavalryman, who is currently available at 27. I'm very surprised anyone could think the likes of Sariska have a better chance in the Arc than this fellow, and I can't see two main dangers in the Prix Niel (anyone care to correct me?) after which his price could turn very short. His price is all wrong, and to quite a large degree I think.

I'll mention again Spanish Moon, who if targeted at the Arc is a ridiculous price at 90 - does anyone know is he definitely going there? I think he'd have a chance though would be an ideal sort for the Breeders Cup Turf.
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Hamm you are certainly moving markets :ninja:

Cavalryman attracts money for the Arc

CAVALRYMAN, winner of the Group 1 Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp last month, has been the horse for money in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe on Monday, and as a result has been trimmed for the October showpiece by several firms.

Victor Chandler are now 10-1 from 14-1, Paddy Power have gone 11-1 [also from 14] while Ladbrokes and William Hill cut the Andre Fabre-trained three-year-old to 12-1, again from 14-1.

David Williams of Ladbrokes said: "It's hardly been a cavalry chargefor Andre Fabre's horse but some shrewd punters have been on to us asking for lumpy bets so we've now got the horse on high alert."

In the Ladbrokes St Leger, the Aidan O'Brien-trained pair of Age Of Aquarius and Ebor second Changingoftheguard have been supported. Age Of Aquarius is now 100-30 from 7-2 with William Hill, and Stan James cut Changingoftheguard by a point, 7-1 from 8-1. Favourite Kite Wood hardened up with Paddy Power, now 5-2 from 11-4.

ProfoundBeauty who was trimmed to 12-1 from 14-1 by William Hill on Monday for the Melbourne Cup, was again supported on Tuesday, with Ladbrokes now going 12-1, again from 14.
 
I don't fancy any of the fillies for the arc this year, nor any of the older horses except maybe Conduit. I do think that the 3yo colts are a special crop and that Fame and Glory will win this one with Cavalryman and possibly Conduit chasing him home. Age of Aquarius could represent real value if he runs,( especially if he wins at Doncaster), but he has a Melbourne Cup entry and might go for that instead.
 
Winning the Arc would finish things beautifully for him... the BC Classic is just a side-show (albeit worth a bit).
 
Price up the Arc (presumably on soft ground) without Sea The Stars? Fame And Glory has been pushed out for the race today....but what did he run to today - a near 130 mark over 10 furlongs - surely there is little chance the filly would not be able to do that?
 
Galileo said:
Price up the Arc (presumably on soft ground) without Sea The Stars? Fame And Glory has been pushed out for the race today....but what did he run to today - a near 130 mark over 10 furlongs - surely there is little chance the filly would not be able to do that?
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Of course she wouldn't (Sariska or the French thing both). It's for the two boys to divide again. If it's soft Fame wins.
 
I think unless there's a truly sensational performance from one of the trials (Cavalryman or Stacellita surely the only ones capable) then I'd back Sea The Stars at anything above 4/6 with a run.
 
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