2009 Arc.

What I said at the time was there was nothing to be gained for Sea the Stars in beating Fame and Glory again in a race in which I do not rate as highly as other races Sea the Stars could and did take in. I also said that if they were to meet again, it should be in fitting with the best schedule for Sea the Stars, and at the time I made numerous points that the Eclipse was the correct race for Sea the Stars, not running against Fame and Glory and a bunch of plodders around the Curragh - I think that point was proved right.

You are very much taking my previous comments out of context.

The fact is Fame and Glory won the Irish Derby decisively; the fact is Sea the Stars had nothing to prove in running in that race, and had and did gain much more from victory in the Eclipse. Now, his next challenge is against Mastercraftsman in the Juddmonte. My only point, and one which is certainly not contradicting anything I have said before, that if he were to win in the Juddmonte (something I take for granted much less than the Eclipse), then it would be great for racing for the Irish Derby winner to take on Sea the Stars, as Sea the Stars would have then dismissed all other challengers.
 
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Hamm said:
Steve,

If Fame and Glory has so much speed, what happened to him in the Derby? To repeat a point EC made on another thread, he needs 1m4 and a fast pace to be at his best. People have called the Derby a 10f race, and Fame and Glory was really found wanting, and there is nothing to suggest he can bridge this gap.

Your confidence is admirable, and I hope we see a rematch, but fear the weather could scupper it. It would be a truly fantastic race for racing, and I'd love it even more if it could be in the Arc :)
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Me too...

What happened in the Derby was that he finished runner-up to a brilliant colt (and is otherwise unbeaten) when ridden counter to his strengths. We saw how he should be ridden in the Irish Derby and he is reported to have come on for Epsom and come on again for the Irish Derby. This colt is not wanting for gears (his gear changes are awesome). As I’ve said before he may not quicken instantly in the style of a Montjeu or a Dancing Brave, but he quickens alright and is capable of out-galloping anything I’ve seen this season.
The key to him is a fast pace, not the trip as such (I believe he has a wide distance range from my analysis). 10 furlongs will barely inconvenience him as long as he gets a strong pace. Of course, if anything he will be even better the further he goes, but do not for a minute believe he is some sort of duffer at 10 furlongs.
 
The key to him is a fast pace, not the trip as such (I believe he has a wide distance range from my analysis). 10 furlongs will barely inconvenience him as long as he gets a strong pace

Steve

I'm really not getting this at all..on your line thinking he can win at 6f as long as the pace is fast?...which can't be logical thinking.

pace wise...a strong run 10f race could equate to a slow run 12f race...re use of petrol...so on your line of thinking he had an ideal scenario in the Derby

its like Conduit...he needs a strong run race to win..but even when he gets that at 10f he is not as good as he is at 12f+...because one race plays to his strength more..ie stamina not speed.

I just can't understand the ..needs a strong pace and will win at any distance... thinking at all..F&G won over 10f at 2yo..that tells you he is more than likely to have more stamina than speed as a 3yo...this was born out in the Derby...where he got the run of the race compared to the 3rd and 4th horses but they were finishing faster than he was...again showing he doesn't have 10f speed at all.

can you explain the win at any distance-as long as pace is strong... bit?
 
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EC1 said:
The key to him is a fast pace, not the trip as such (I believe he has a wide distance range from my analysis). 10 furlongs will barely inconvenience him as long as he gets a strong pace

Steve

I'm really not getting this at all..on your line thinking he can win at 6f as long as the pace is fast?...which can't be logical thinking.

pace wise...a strong run 10f race could equate to a slow run 12f race...re use of petrol...so on your line of thinking he had an ideal scenario in the Derby

its like Conduit...he needs a strong run race to win..but even when he gets that at 10f he is not as good as he is at 12f+...because one race plays to his strength more..ie stamina not speed.

I just can't understand the ..needs a strong pace and will win at any distance... thinking at all..F&G won over 10f at 2yo..that tells you he is more than likely to have more stamina than speed as a 3yo...this was born out in the Derby...where he got the run of the race compared to the 3rd and 4th horses but they were finishing faster than he was...again showing he doesn't have 10f speed at all.

can you explain the win at any distance-as long as pace is strong... bit?
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I'm saying he has a wide distance capability of between 10 and 14 furlongs and will barely be inconvenienced by a drop back. I'd expect him to hit consistent ratings at 10, 12 and 14.
 
how do you conclude that though?

a fast run 10f and a fast 12f are two different tests just to start with

are you thinking a fast run 10f that bursts the others..an over fast 10 basically

again..Conduit is a great example of a horse that likes a fast run race..but he still can't win at 10f

Conduit is a similar horse to F&G in that he needs 12 and further to show best

F&G at this point in time is a clear 12f horse..solid pace needed...that suggests he will struggle at 10..imo
 
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SteveM said:
I'm saying he has a wide distance capability of between 10 and 14 furlongs and will barely be inconvenienced by a drop back. I'd expect him to hit consistent ratings at 10, 12 and 14.
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As they have now sold Golden Sword perhaps they will switch F & G to a race that will suit him much better - the Leger:lol:

He was run off his feet by STS at Epsom - over 10f unless the real STS does not turn up or it is wet - he will be run off his feet again . The Irish Derby is now looking like a terrible race
 
It is a bit like Dylan Thomas's Irish Derby win, Fame And Glory won by 5 Lengths hands and heels so the placed horses are relatively unimportant as the success was so easy. STS will be a strong favourite to beat him over ten furlongs though assuming they clash in it.
 
Hands and heels, yes; easy, most certainly not. He was vigorously ridden by Murtagh, and at one stage it looked like he wouldn't get to Golden Sword, whose departure from Ballydoyle indicates the level of esteem AOB, Magnier etc hold him in.
 
Hamm said:
Hands and heels, yes; easy, most certainly not. He was vigorously ridden by Murtagh, and at one stage it looked like he wouldn't get to Golden Sword, whose departure from Ballydoyle indicates the level of esteem AOB, Magnier etc hold him in.
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I never had any worries at any stage in the race. Golden Sword was sold because he was not a stallion prospect for them much in the same way the higher rated Eagle Mountain,MacArthur were.
 
Galileo said:
I never had any worries at any stage in the race. Golden Sword was sold because he was not a stallion prospect for them much in the same way the higher rated Eagle Mountain,MacArthur were.
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Indeed they will be more concerned with trying to get a ROI on the 1.4 million they spent on Age of Aquarius. He looks a prime candidate to be kept in training as a four year old.
 
Galileo said:
I never had any worries at any stage in the race. Golden Sword was sold because he was not a stallion prospect for them much in the same way the higher rated Eagle Mountain,MacArthur were.
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Then you're a very calm man :) . Looked to be slightly struggling coming round the bend to me.
 
Hamm said:
Then you're a very calm man :) . Looked to be slightly struggling coming round the bend to me.
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The Curragh does that to horses...look at High Chaparral and Sinndar. Both had to be ridden out to beat much inferior rivals - High Chaparral in particular took an age to get past the likes of Sholokhov and Ballingarry but was well on top in the end.
 
Ardross said:
As they have now sold Golden Sword perhaps they will switch F & G to a race that will suit him much better - the Leger:lol:

He was run off his feet by STS at Epsom - over 10f unless the real STS does not turn up or it is wet - he will be run off his feet again . The Irish Derby is now looking like a terrible race
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I can't wait for the rematch... There is no horse in training that can run Fame off his feet at 10 furlongs or 12 furlongs, as we will see if the rematch comes off.
 
It'll be interesting to see if Sariska's price contracts for the Arc after she turns out today. I'm a little worried about the radically different going from last time, but she's done okay on a sound surface before and as long as she lets herself down on it today should be alright.

She's currently my second choice for the Arc behind Fame... hopefully that won't change after York today.
 
It's win win for you Hamm, if she wins impressively today, she'll go off a ludicrous price for the Arc and there should be some value to be had. There's just no way she should be shorter than Stacellita come the end of today.
 
Gamla Stan said:
It's win win for you Hamm, if she wins impressively today, she'll go off a ludicrous price for the Arc and there should be some value to be had. There's just no way she should be shorter than Stacellita come the end of today.
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Interesting... I don't expect her to come in very much even if she's brilliant today. Having said that I already fancy her more than the French filly.

Fame is the one who'll go shorter when he beats STS in Ireland.:)
 
SteveM said:
Interesting... I don't expect her to come in very much even if she's brilliant today. Having said that I already fancy her more than the French filly.

Fame is the one who'll go shorter when he beats STS in Ireland.:)
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At 8.2 i've had a small punt. She won't go in much but with Fame, Stacelita and Sariska in the book they may as well pay me now.
 
I think at 8.2 Sariska is the worst price in Arc history - no offence Euro, fair enough if you have the other 2 and you see her as the only danger! :)
 
That's basically it to be honest. I really can't have any of the older horses and the French 3yo colts look a poor bunch.
 
If Stacelita stays this really looks like her race to me now barring fast ground and STS running.
 
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