2009 Arc.

Gamla Stan said:
:) I'm on at some silly prices on Betfair.
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Now that he's been pulled from the Leger i'm even more curious... If it's not because of an injury they may be lining him up for a tilt at it... Having said that he's not in any of the Arc trials... 400 was way too big about what is effectively their second best middle distance colt now. Not saying he'll win but as a trade he looks appealing.
 
Aragorn said:
Now that he's been pulled from the Leger i'm even more curious... If it's not because of an injury they may be lining him up for a tilt at it... Having said that he's not in any of the Arc trials... 400 was way too big about what is effectively their second best middle distance colt now. Not saying he'll win but as a trade he looks appealing.
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Surely it's an injury. It would be very irresponsible not to offer a hint that he might be switched to something else. Is he still down to run in Ireland?
 
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According to the blog on sporting life O'Brien was unhappy with his last piece of work - I can only assume that was yesterday or this morning...

I don't see why they won't set him up for a tilt at the Arc now.

Murtagh still coming over to ride changingoftheguard.
 
Aragorn said:
According to the blog on sporting life O'Brien was unhappy with his last piece of work - I can only assume that was yesterday or this morning...

I don't see why they won't set him up for a tilt at the Arc now.

Murtagh still coming over to ride changingoftheguard.
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See Leger thread. Apparently he's lame.
 
Lame or not he is nowhere near good enough for the Arc - a well beaten seventh in the Derby and second in the worst Grand Prix de Paris for a long time do not an Arc winner make !
 
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How do you know it's a bad GP de Paris already? There were several unexposed horses in that race, and if Cavalryman were to win on Sunday, would that make it a poor Niel or a good GP de Paris? Too early to judge.
 
Ardross said:
Lame or not he is nowhere near good enough for the Arc - a well beaten seventh in the Derby and second in the worst Grand Prix de Paris for a long time do not an Arc winner make !
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I'd agree. He travels well but would be out of his depth in the Arc. If you fancy AOA back Cavalryman (and he has enough to do).

I'm with Euro, at the prices it's still Fame.
 
AOA won't win the Arc but he's one of the best potential trades I've ever seen at around 500/1 as that surely represents his next target providing his setback isn't serious. Like Aragron says, he's probably their 2nd best three year old colt!

I'd never knock the GP de Paris form in any year, people have done it before and it comes back to haunt people. In what is a vintage year it'll be tough but going into this weekend I'd rather be with Cavalryman than anything else.
 
Sea the Stars 3.1
Fame & Glory 6.8

They were roughly those prices this morning. I'd have thought today's action would have seen them both contract.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'd never knock the GP de Paris form in any year, people have done it before and it comes back to haunt people. In what is a vintage year it'll be tough but going into this weekend I'd rather be with Cavalryman than anything else.
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The GP de Paris form sure doesn't look any worse after the weekend.
 
chroniclandlord said:
The GP de Paris form sure doesn't look any worse after the weekend.
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cannot follow that line of arguement to be honest. been said elsewhere that leger was the weakest ever, and thats surely how i see it. on bare reading mastery did win a group 1, ok, but i cannot see anybody fancing him for arc, or kite wood for that matter. is different distance range and does not really boost the propects of cavalryman imo. beheshtam got much closer so was the improver, and above all: cavalryman is hallings first group 1 winner, and he will not sire an arc winner in the same horse.
 
crazyhorse said:
cannot follow that line of arguement to be honest. been said elsewhere that leger was the weakest ever, and thats surely how i see it. on bare reading mastery did win a group 1, ok, but i cannot see anybody fancing him for arc, or kite wood for that matter. is different distance range and does not really boost the propects of cavalryman imo. beheshtam got much closer so was the improver, and above all: cavalryman is hallings first group 1 winner, and he will not sire an arc winner in the same horse.
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Crazy Horse, I think you have misunderstood me, I merely said that the Gp de Paris form stood up well after a weekend in which the 1st and 3rd had won. I wasn't suggestting that the Arc winner was going to come from it, as I think that Sea the Stars or Fame and Glory will win at Longchamp but neither Cavalryman or Beheshtam are without place chances. I do think however that time will show that the Gp de Paris wasn't a bad race.
 
Agreed, I just think he's a bit of a monkey and Cavalryman holds him on two runnings now and I'm not sure where the improvement will come from given the profile of Cavalryman.
 
I think both of the Prix Niel winners would improve for a slightly softer surface, but I'd be surprised if the Aga Khan horse finished in front of Cavalryman, though he could indeed be a good place bet on the day.
 
Who are the likely runners at this stage?

Definite
Sea the Stars (ground dependant)
Fame and Glory
Conduit
Cavalryman (needs to be supplemented I think)
Vision D'Etat
Youmzain
Staeclita

Possibles
Spanish Moon
Dar re mi
Sariska
Age of Aquarius
Casual Conquest
Behestam
Getaway
Ask
Alpine Rose


Missing anyone?
 
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