Just came across an eye opening statistic folks. Correct me if I'm wrong here. Think it might have been mentioned on here before. In the last 20 yrs maybe more the only horse to win the gold cup that failed in their first attempt at the race was see more business. In fact u could argue that see more business shouldn't be included in this as he was carried out after the 1st circuit the year before he won it. The last horse to do it before that was the fellow. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Very interesting stuff nevertheless as far as the gold cup is concerned.
2016 Gold Cuppin
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TheBear
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No novice in 40 years has won the Gold Cup - Djakadam
No horse has ever reclaimed the Gold Cup - Kauto Star
No horse has reclaimed the CH title in 30 years - Hurricane Fly
No French bred has ever won the Grand National - Mon Mome
All stats which lasted longer but were ultimately broken. I like a good stat but you've got to think is it for a reason or just pure chance that it hasn't happened yet. Do all French breds fail to get 4 miles? Is the test of the Gold Cup too much for a novice? Does the Gold Cup take so much out of a horse that it will never run to that mark again?
The problem with that stat for Djakadam is that we know the horse relishes the test a Gold Cup offers. This couldn't be said for 99% of the horses which has kept your stat alive. The Giant Bolster & Sir Rembrandt are the only two which come to mind that outperformed themselves in Gold Cups but failed to win it. The other issue is that the type of horse which comes back for repeated cracks at it are usually big odds and largely unfancied, Silviniaco Conti being the obvious exception. I certainly wouldn't be ruling Djakdam out of it because of that.
No horse has ever reclaimed the Gold Cup - Kauto Star
No horse has reclaimed the CH title in 30 years - Hurricane Fly
No French bred has ever won the Grand National - Mon Mome
All stats which lasted longer but were ultimately broken. I like a good stat but you've got to think is it for a reason or just pure chance that it hasn't happened yet. Do all French breds fail to get 4 miles? Is the test of the Gold Cup too much for a novice? Does the Gold Cup take so much out of a horse that it will never run to that mark again?
The problem with that stat for Djakadam is that we know the horse relishes the test a Gold Cup offers. This couldn't be said for 99% of the horses which has kept your stat alive. The Giant Bolster & Sir Rembrandt are the only two which come to mind that outperformed themselves in Gold Cups but failed to win it. The other issue is that the type of horse which comes back for repeated cracks at it are usually big odds and largely unfancied, Silviniaco Conti being the obvious exception. I certainly wouldn't be ruling Djakdam out of it because of that.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Djakadam isn't a novice TheBear and that stat went west with Coneygree anyway?
EC1
On a break
i'm not an advocate of stats..i like a dabble..but you say that stat went west with Coneygree Tiggers...but why does a stat go west when its broken?
imagine this scenario...a certain stat is correct for 30 years..120 horses losing supported the stat..first time its broken by one..just one.. winner..its "that stat has gone west"
thats not really logical to me..its recency bias took to its finest extreme
its a bit like..well this stat has given the last 30 winners of the GC..then it doesn't give the winner of the next GC.."well thats that stat gone west then"
would you really think a stat was no good that had given 30/31 winners?
imagine this scenario...a certain stat is correct for 30 years..120 horses losing supported the stat..first time its broken by one..just one.. winner..its "that stat has gone west"
thats not really logical to me..its recency bias took to its finest extreme
its a bit like..well this stat has given the last 30 winners of the GC..then it doesn't give the winner of the next GC.."well thats that stat gone west then"
would you really think a stat was no good that had given 30/31 winners?
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TheBear
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That was a clerical error on my behalf. I meant to write Coneygree in that space!
TheBear
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I see what you're saying but you've got to adjust for changes in the sport. The reclaiming of titles by Kauto and The Fly are good examples of this. Is it a coincidence that they've both achieved this recently after such a long spell without it happening? I'd say modern training methods have allowed horses to come back as good as they were whereas in this past this was much less likely to happen. As such I can't see it being another 30 years before it's achieved again.
EC1
On a break
thats fair..but its still illogical to dismiss something just because it happened last time
look at it another way as well..if it hadn't rained..would Coneygree have even broke the stat?
there will always be exceptions..and i'm in no way suggesting stats are all that..but the dismissal of a stat..for one occurence is not logical
the novice stat in the GC is actually based on a solid base..jumping good enough to win a GC is about experience gained...so it makes sense its hard for a novice to win it
look at it another way as well..if it hadn't rained..would Coneygree have even broke the stat?
there will always be exceptions..and i'm in no way suggesting stats are all that..but the dismissal of a stat..for one occurence is not logical
the novice stat in the GC is actually based on a solid base..jumping good enough to win a GC is about experience gained...so it makes sense its hard for a novice to win it
TheBear
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Yeah, I think we're agreeing here really. My original point was that there has to be a good reason why a certain stat exists for me to take it into account. The same would apply for one that has recently been broken as well.
When people put up trends you'll get '9 out of the last 10 winners......' and '8 out of the last 10 winners........'. I'd say your first questions should be
1. is there a good reason for it, and
2. what were the circumstances surrounding the one or two which defied the stat.
Some of them are absolute nonsense like 'no grey has ever won the race' which you can readily dismiss but then others have to be considered. For example, if you're backing a Grand National winner who hasn't won over 3 miles then good luck to you, but the French bred stat was just a sitting duck.
When people put up trends you'll get '9 out of the last 10 winners......' and '8 out of the last 10 winners........'. I'd say your first questions should be
1. is there a good reason for it, and
2. what were the circumstances surrounding the one or two which defied the stat.
Some of them are absolute nonsense like 'no grey has ever won the race' which you can readily dismiss but then others have to be considered. For example, if you're backing a Grand National winner who hasn't won over 3 miles then good luck to you, but the French bred stat was just a sitting duck.
EC1
On a break
i like playing about with em when i can't be arsed to look at some lottery of race just to take an interest..i'd never have me balls on a stat..learned those games 30 year ago
some of the national stats amuse me..54 hosses lost due to this or that..well its not surprising when there is 40 runners every time they run it..you can have a 0/39 stat just on one race that means bugger all..with a race like National i'd be wanting to seeing 0/600
some of the national stats amuse me..54 hosses lost due to this or that..well its not surprising when there is 40 runners every time they run it..you can have a 0/39 stat just on one race that means bugger all..with a race like National i'd be wanting to seeing 0/600
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Grasshopper
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This post has my full approval.
Tanlic, take note.
Tanlic, take note.
EC1
On a break
he was good old slow old boat was Dato
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
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This post has my full approval.
Tanlic, take note.
We're talking relative here, Grassy, don't get too excited:
[TABLE="class: sortable jquery-tablesorter"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]1992[/TD]
[TD="width: 160"]Montelado[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD="width: 180"]Richard Dunwoody[/TD]
[TD="width: 180"]Pat Flynn[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1993[/TD]
[TD]Rhythm Section[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Paul Carberry[/TD]
[TD]Homer Scott[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1994[/TD]
[TD]Mucklemeg[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Swan[/TD]
[TD]Edward O'Grady[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1995[/TD]
[TD]Dato Star[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Mark Dwyer[/TD]
[TD]Malcolm Jefferson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1996[/TD]
[TD]Wither or Which[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Mr Willie Mullins[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1997[/TD]
[TD]Florida Pearl[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Richard Dunwoody[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1998[/TD]
[TD]Alexander Banquet[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Mr Ruby Walsh[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1999[/TD]
[TD]Monsignor[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Brendan Powell[/TD]
[TD]Mark Pitman[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2000[/TD]
[TD]Joe Cullen[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Charlie Swan[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #eeeeee"]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]no race 2001 [SUP][1][/SUP][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2002[/TD]
[TD]Pizarro[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Jamie Spencer[/TD]
[TD]Edward O'Grady[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2003[/TD]
[TD]Liberman[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Tony McCoy[/TD]
[TD]Martin Pipe[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]Total Enjoyment[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Jim Culloty[/TD]
[TD]Tom Cooper[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2005[/TD]
[TD]Missed That[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Ruby Walsh[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2006[/TD]
[TD]Hairy Molly[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Paul Carberry[/TD]
[TD]Joseph Crowley[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2007[/TD]
[TD]Cork All Star[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Barry Geraghty[/TD]
[TD]Jessica Harrington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2008[/TD]
[TD]Cousin Vinny[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Mr Patrick Mullins[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]Dunguib[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Mr Brian O'Connell[/TD]
[TD]Philip Fenton[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]Cue Card[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Joe Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]Cheltenian[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012[/TD]
[TD]Champagne Fever[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Mr Patrick Mullins[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013[/TD]
[TD]Briar Hill[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Ruby Walsh[/TD]
[TD]Willie Mullins[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]Silver Concorde[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Mr Robbie McNamara[/TD]
[TD]Dermot Weld[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2015[/TD]
[TD]Moon Racer[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
archie
Senior Jockey
Montelado still the only horse to win two consecutive races at Festival meetings?
Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
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I heard Monsignor's back in training
BennyB
Senior Jockey
God there's been some dross winners of the champion bumper. The mind tends to blank it out.
Grasshopper
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From the Sporting Life website's piece on whether Vautour should join Djakadam in the Gold Cup:
"Furthermore we know that the situation would not be the same if Vautour were trained by, say, Paul Nicholls because the reigning champion trainer has helpfully told us as much.
Asked recently on At The Races which of the Mullins stars he would most like to add to his stable, he named Vautour and stated categorically that were the horse in his yard he would already be a 100 per cent intended runner in the Gold Cup "because it's the right race"."
"Furthermore we know that the situation would not be the same if Vautour were trained by, say, Paul Nicholls because the reigning champion trainer has helpfully told us as much.
Asked recently on At The Races which of the Mullins stars he would most like to add to his stable, he named Vautour and stated categorically that were the horse in his yard he would already be a 100 per cent intended runner in the Gold Cup "because it's the right race"."
Grasshopper
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Just sharing an opinion from a guy who has trained a few Gold Cup winners in his day, that's all.
PS. Order knee-pads - the knocking won't hurt so much.
:lol:
PS. Order knee-pads - the knocking won't hurt so much.
:lol:
Grasshopper
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Rich Ricci interview in the Post tomorrow. Hopefully some of the mist will clear.*
* Better move the Knee-pads to Defcon 4.
:lol:
* Better move the Knee-pads to Defcon 4.
:lol:
granger
Senior Jockey
TheBear
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Oh Jesus, he's going to be unbearable now. Fair play though with the price, was it 16/1?
My immediate thought after reading that was that I should back him NRNB now but after a minutes thought I've changed my mind for two reasons:-
1. It's not great value against such a strong field.
2. Although I absolutely love the horse I'm still not convinced the GC is right for him.
I guess you're hoping for a less than stellar performance from Djak on Saturday Grassy?
My immediate thought after reading that was that I should back him NRNB now but after a minutes thought I've changed my mind for two reasons:-
1. It's not great value against such a strong field.
2. Although I absolutely love the horse I'm still not convinced the GC is right for him.
I guess you're hoping for a less than stellar performance from Djak on Saturday Grassy?
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's got far more credible opposition lining up against him in the Argento than Mullins other hotpots recently.