2016 Gold Cuppin

It tells me that, in the last 15 years, about 18% of qualified horses who finished 2nd in the King George, went on to win the Gold Cup. So Vautour would be about a 9/2 shot on that stat.

Of course, of those seconds, only Exotic Dancer And Long Run would be in the same parish as Vautour ratings-wise, so you could perhaps say that 30% of horses rated above 170 who finished second in the KG, went on to win the Gold Cup. All of a sudden, Vautour is an 85/40 chance.

Are you sure you have accounted for the non-runners, when adopting your position?

:p

:lol:
 
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didn't stay well enough to win though Bear..many thought the Don would have beat both,,,the statement.."didn't stay" without context is pointless really...i thought he styed ok in context of race..trouble is..its 2.5f further at Cheltenham..up an hill

don't shoot the messenger you guys..i only posted for information purposes..take it or leave it..but at least i've tried to put something of interest up..whether its agreed with or ignored is up to the reader
 
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Like i say..there seems to loads on here who get chasers and hurdlers each year..why not check the previous 20 years worth

the two before these were anaglogs daughter + fifty dollars more..i couldn't work out if either ran in GC so didn't bother

15 years is nowt Grass..lets get 50 years worth put together..decent sample
 
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TheBear said:
It kills me to oppose him but I have to agree. Just watched the KG again and he plainly didn't stay. The jump at the last tells you everything you need to know.
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Vautour ran ram-rod straight all the way to the post, and never wavered from a true line. He lost momentum at the last, but was back-up to the gallop quickly enough, only to get chinned by a horse who admittedly got home just that bit better (under a searching ride). CC was never more than about 1.5L in defect after the last. It's not as if he comes from miles back, and gubs a horse wandering all over the course.

I honestly believe that you are seeing something that isn't there, TB.
 
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EC1 said:
i put NR next to em Grass..it means..non runner:D
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Yes......and in the last 15 runnings, there have been 8 NRs. That means there are only eight qualifying horses - one of whom won, hence the 18% strike-rate I mentioned earlier.

And class counts. It cannot be dismissed, which is what this stat ignores.
 
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All I'm doing Grassy is comparing how he finished (final leap & run-in) in the KG compared to last years JLT. One looks like a tired horse, the other looks to be in his element.
 
why pick the last 15 when you can have lots more to give more relevance..the fact is you pick the last 15 because it contains a winner.....and that one winner..90% of opinion on the board has agreed won weak GC's

its 1/19 looking at the whole picture..its probably 1/39 if we go back far enough..who knows
 
TheBear said:
All I'm doing Grassy is comparing how he finished (final leap & run-in) in the KG compared to last years JLT. One looks like a tired horse, the other looks to be in his element.
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If it was a tired leap, he would not have picked-up so well after the error, on my reading of the race.
 
If you were shown that race but had no clue who the two horses were and then someone told you that the trainer of the 2nd was stepping him up in trip what would you think?

Answer honestly please!
 
I simply don't like the KG as a decent trial for the Gold Cup. Anyone can see that decent, even great, horses have won both but the 2 races offer such different challenges.

Easy enough to find as damaging stats for most of them. As far as I can see, Arkle is the only horse to win the Gold Cup the season after winning the Punchestown Gold Cup so Don Cossack should be about 60/1. No Champion Bumper winner has ever won the Gold Cup so scratch Cue Card. We have the old stat about placing one year and winning the next against Djakadam and Road To Riches.

Basically, until Vautour runs again there will be no further evidence. Connections think he'll stay and "there's only one Gold Cup".
 
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What about class though? This does not account for the class of the horse who finished second. Also, as the argument is that the KG proves too 'tough' for horses who finished 2nd, by inference, it suggests it's too tough for anything that finished further behind. Do the records of the 3rd, 4th and 5th horses also reflect this lack of success in the Gold Cup? What about the distance beaten? Does this have any weighting?

This argument just seems to me to be too simplistic a comparison across years. It is surely more subtle than that?
 
just thought it were interesting..its obviously just a stat..each race and hoss are individuals..but in a stat way..its not a great indicator imo..it wouldn't encourage me to back a hoss that had failed.

by using the second hoss its showing the horse was a contender..if a horse isn't close up then it may not be relevant..i remember one year a 4th in KG winning a GC..but they used KG as a sighter..not a real target..i'm sure it was horse's first run at xmas..about 15 year ago..will ahve to check

its just summat to mull over..passes the days on etc
 
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TheBear said:
If you were shown that race but had no clue who the two horses were and then someone told you that the trainer of the 2nd was stepping him up in trip what would you think?

Answer honestly please!
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I wouldn't, and didn't, make my judgement on the outcome the King George alone, TB.

My honest answer is that I would consider the 2nd unlucky. And when I found out it was his first race at 3m, looked at who'd chinned him, understood the level he'd run to, and taken a look at his overall profile, I'd be wanting to know why he was being pushed-out for the Gold Cup.

This is a sincere answer.......but it could all be bollocks.
 
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That's fair enough, and in hindsight I completely agree it was crazy for them to offer 16's. Personally I can't stand losing money antepost so it wasn't for me. As I don't have a penny committed in the race I don't think 6's is value for a possible non stayer in a strong renewal. I think he could win but only if he were allowed to dictate the pace, and this is entirely possible looking at the likely runners.

No matter what we say about him staying or not staying Ruby will definitely be looking to save as much energy as possible in the GC because he believes the tactics employed at Kempton cost him the race. Should Djakadam or Don Poli make it a test I just can't see him winning.

I hope you appreciate what a colossal ******* headache this is for me! Everything I put on here is just the conflict going on in my head. I absolutely bloody love the horse and have cheered him home for the last two years. Why can't they just run him in the bloody Ryanair so I can do it again.:mad:
 
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TheBear said:
That's fair enough, and in hindsight I completely agree it was crazy for them to offer 16's. Personally I can't stand losing money antepost so it wasn't for me. As I don't have a penny committed in the race I don't think 6's is value for a possible non stayer in a strong renewal. I think he could win but only if he were allowed to dictate the pace, and this is entirely possible looking at the likely runners.

No matter what we say about him staying or not staying Ruby will definitely be looking to save as much energy as possible in the GC because he believes the tactics employed at Kempton cost him the race. Should Djakadam or Don Poli make it a test I just can't see him winning.

I hope you appreciate what a colossal ******* headache this is for me! Everything I put on here is just the conflict going on in my head. I absolutely bloody love the horse and have cheered him home for the last two years. Why can't they just run him in the bloody Ryanair so I can do it again.:mad:
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I'm glad you love Vautour, TB, so do I. And I just want him to be a champion - a proper champion in a proper race. As good a race as the Ryanair has become, it's not, well, the Gold Cup, is it? You will love him even more when Ruby wins the GC on him, yagging off the bridle two out and then kicking on to score by 10 lengths.
 
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Ricci's racing manager spending an awful lot of time talking about Djakadam's 'pace' this afternoon.

:ninja:

:lol:
 
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