2018 Gold Cuppin'

Grasshopper said:
Are you not concerned that the Ultima Chase form is looking a bit more patchy/exposed now, DO?
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Not really, GH.

They went so fast on the day some top handicappers just couldn't live with them. UTPT and Go Conquer were the only prominent runners still there at the end. The latter couldn't live with UTPT from about three out but now races off 14lbs higher. Considering the good-to-soft going, they were strung out like finishers in a muddy Midlands National and the time was only 3lbs slower than Altior's and no fewer than 19lbs faster than Tully East's.

Noble Endeavor, SFP and Buywise came from well off the pace and I'd argue that if you take UTPT out they'd be seen to have been given the ideal ride off an over-fast pace. I'm not suprised they haven't run well since. It was a savage race. That would be more of a worry than the reliability of the form but they clearly decided early to give UTPT plenty of time to get over it.

I'll be pleasantly surprised if they do go for the Gold Cup with him and the way things are going with other so-called challengers, I'd hope they are not taking the race off the agenda for him.
 
Grasshopper said:
Tizzards' comments suggest to me that Native River isn't being trained for the Gold Cup, and they are going to wait for the National weights to be published, before they do anything with him. Aintree is surely his target this year, rather than Cheltenham.
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Am wondering if it's similar for Our Duke
 
His jumping is still a massive question mark in my book. Lets see if this operation has had the desired effect.

I hate looking at the Gold Cup market right now. It's just a massive headache.
 
[FONT=&quot]Regarding Coney Island

"We're happy we decided to go there instead of running in the Grade One in Leopardstown. It was the right thing to do for the horse."[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Several races are under consideration for Coney Island before the Festival in March, but Harty is in no rush to firm up plans.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]He said: "He'll get an entry in the Irish Gold Cup in Leopardstown and we'll see where we are nearer the time. I don't think he'll run before February anyway.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]"There's also the Red Mills Chase (at Gowran Park) and there are a couple of options back in England if we decided to go that way.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]"It was his first run in a year the other day so we won't be rushing him back. We'll just wait until he's fresh and well again and go from there."[/FONT]
 
I note that NTD is saying that ulcers were the issue with Bristol De Mai in the King George.

If so, they came on a hell-of-a-fast after the Betfair Chase, when they clearly didn't bother the horse a jot.

The guy is an utter fantasist that refuses to accept his horses get beaten on merit on occasion.
 
Grasshopper said:
I note that NTD is saying that ulcers were the issue with Bristol De Mai in the King George.

If so, they came on a hell-of-a-fast after the Betfair Chase, when they clearly didn't bother the horse a jot.

The guy is an utter fantasist that refuses to accept his horses get beaten on merit on occasion.
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Says he wants to run him in the Cotswold Chase and Cheltenham, brilliant idea given his course form.

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Grasshopper said:
I note that NTD is saying that ulcers were the issue with Bristol De Mai in the King George.

If so, they came on a hell-of-a-fast after the Betfair Chase, when they clearly didn't bother the horse a jot.

The guy is an utter fantasist that refuses to accept his horses get beaten on merit on occasion.
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Agree 100% just on my break at work so cant post in depth thoughts on the matter but personally I think he'd have more chance of winning the Gold Cup with Blacklion than BDM. Due to his refusal to see what BDM's limitations are Blaklion won't even get a run and instead will attempt to win a national from 161. How many RSA winners reach 161 and never attempt the Gold Cup ? Personally if it came up soft ground I think he'd be the most likely winner.
 
For the record, but moreso for the hilarous shi*ts’n’giggles it affords.....RPR awarded Bristol De Mai a mark of 151 for the King George. That’s fully 34lbs lower than the fu*ckwit 185 they gave the horse for Haydock.

Anyone quoting RPRs at me in future (during the sometimes-heated handicap discussions we have on here), can expect to have this absolute bobby-dazzler launched at them, as part of my first-strike nuclear capability. :lol:
 
Tbf, grass, rhat's a performance rating, not his overall merit, and he was well overrated by a number of agencies for his penultimate run.
Ratings are much of a muchness, in reality; none providing a figure one could bank on, but some - used intelligently - provide a starting point for a more in-depth appraisal.
Use RPR's myself in this manner, and generally find them a cheap and cheerful alternative to other overblown mainstream services. :p
 
Like I say, reet, it’s mainly for the shi*ts and giggles......and to point out that no rating is infallible, and can’t always be taken at face value.

No matter that it was a single-performance rating, the 185 for BDM is the most ridiculous, unjustifiable, rating awarded to a horse, in all the time I have been watching racing. The people compiling RPRs put themselves away as a professional ratings crowd, and such a high-award should have been subject to much scrutiny and objective review, before it was allowed anywhere near a published article. That it passed the ‘sensors’ unchallenged, is yet another example of how pitiable a paper the Post has become, imo.
 
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What would be the likely progression route for Bachasson? Impressed me the other day at Tramore. Composed and economical over his fences and looks versatile ground-wise. Same ownership as UDS I believe....
 
Ivantheterrible said:
What would be the likely progression route for Bachasson? Impressed me the other day at Tramore. Composed and economical over his fences and looks versatile ground-wise. Same ownership as UDS I believe....
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Up to 158 after that so it probably just about rules out going for a big handicap

O'Connels own him so probably not the Ryanair

He was a slow horse to come round but is doing ok now

He is a good ground horse so maybe Aintree or Punchestown
 
Bachasson was definitely thought of as a good ground horse when he was younger but, as he's strengthened with maturity he seems to be able to handle most conditions. The last 2 wins were on soft/heavy and heavy. At this stage, most options probably still open as long as it means avoiding UDS.
 
Grasshopper said:
Like I say, reet, it’s mainly for the shi*ts and giggles......and to point out that no rating is infallible, and can’t always be taken at face value.

No matter that it was a single-performance rating, the 185 for BDM is the most ridiculous, unjustifiable, rating awarded to a horse, in all the time I have been watching racing. The people compiling RPRs put themselves away as a professional ratings crowd, and such a high-award should have been subject to much scrutiny and objective review, before it was allowed anywhere near a published article. That it passed the ‘sensors’ unchallenged, is yet another example of how pitiable a paper the Post has become, imo.
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Well said
 
Grasshopper said:
Anyone quoting RPRs at me in future (during the sometimes-heated handicap discussions we have on here), can expect to have this absolute bobby-dazzler launched at them, as part of my first-strike nuclear capability. :lol:
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What other ratings do we quote when trying to make general points, though?

How many on here have access to Timeform (I don't/wouldn't use them)? It's almost pointless people [like me] offering their own ratings as they are entirely subjective and it's entirely understandable that people will want to ask for clarification on how the figures are arrived at but I find it frustrating when people do so with me only to quote back Timeform figures or even suggest they don't believe in ratings at all. I'm not convinced it adds meaning to a debate.

So RPRs are the most commonly accessible ratings around hence they do have some value for contextualising certain issues.

I think 90% or RPRs are reliable and, as reet says, it's the odd one-off performance rating that tends to spark most controversy. The down side, though, is that these one-off ratings do tend to end up being the RPR 'master' rating for these horses.
 
The fundamental problem with ratings is that most everyone uses a different scale. The variance this generates in terms of the rating, is what causes most of the kerfuffle, whenever the merits of a given horse are discussed. If we accept the premise that we all use a subtly (or not so subtly) different scale from each other, then it's easier to understand where 'the other' is coming from - as long as the reason for the variance is articulated (as you have done on here on many occasions).

Doubtless RPR are in the ball-park most of the time, but in my view, they are given to excessive hyperbole. You would like to hope that, when the dope (whoever it was) threw out the 185 for Bristol De Mai, someone in the RPR mob would have said "Hang on - are you sure? It's higher than anything we ever gave Denman".........or at the very least "Are you sure the race is solid enough to warrant such a high-mark?".

It might be a free service, but these are the ratings of the sole trade-paper, and should therefore be subject to as many - if not moreso - checks-and-balances as a paid Ratings service, given the extent of their reach. In the case of Bristol De Mai, no such check-and-balance appears to have taken place, and if there was, the scrutineer appears to have had the same giddy, falling-over-themselves approach, as the original rater, if he was happy to stand-behind the 185.

It smacks of lack of either lack of professionalism, due-diligence, laziness, or a combination of all three. We should expect better from the trade-paper, imo.


FWIW, I would place a lot more stock in your ratings, than I would RPRs.
 
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What to do, what to do

For my amusement I have checked RPRs for Bristol De Mai and Dato Star , another Haydock specialist.
Bristol's Rprs for Haydock are 161 for a 32 length victory; 170 for a 22 length win and 185 for a 57 length win, all on heavy ground.
His other chase RPRs are 174,162,161,157,156,155,151 .
Conclusion : he is a stone better at Haydock on heavy ground than anywhere else. Horses for courses. Not necessarily Racing Post Rating compiler's fault but the reader's for Universalising ( new word ) a specific rating.

Any horse taking him on at haydock on heavy needs a Denman type rating to get close.

Dato Star, had soft ground Haydock ratings of 175 for beating Relkeel 17lengths , 171 for beating Collier Bay 20 lengths and also won a Bumper there by 15 lengths. A serious serious horse on that track.
Despite winning a Festival Bumper his best Champion Hurdle rating was 158, his other hurdle ratings 172, 166, 164 ,163.
Again , horses for courses and conditions .
Pity for them both the Festival Championships are not run there.
Looking at a horses, average grade 1 ratings gives a truer indication of their ability.
We can get hung up on ratings but on any day any genuine 160 plus horse has a chance to win a Grade 1 anywhere , all they need is the 170 plus superstar to have an off day.
The biggest error we all make is condemning The New One, Yanworth and other ultra consistent Grade 1.5 horses who run their hearts out race in race out over many seasons but just lack the little luck to capitalise on their undoubted ability and consistency.
 
Yes, some horses like heavy ground at Haydock, and Bristol De Mai certainly deserves respect when running in similar conditions. But he beat a small field when getting that rating, which was calculated - as previously discussed - on the basis that the rest of the field ran to their normal level and that the equation of one length = 1 lb should apply.

I think both assumptions are questionable. Which is not the same thing as saying it was a fluke, by the way.
 
edgt said:
Dato Star, had soft ground Haydock ratings of 175 for beating Relkeel 17lengths , 171 for beating Collier Bay 20 lengths and also won a Bumper there by 15 lengths. A serious serious horse on that track.
Despite winning a Festival Bumper his best Champion Hurdle rating was 158, his other hurdle ratings 172, 166, 164 ,163.
Again , horses for courses and conditions .
Pity for them both the Festival Championships are not run there.
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Cheltenham about the only track that Dato Star went to that he didn't act on, Ed......and that was principally down to the ground, which in those days, used to be rattling-fast (except the year he won the Bumper). Excuses for one of my faves? Maybe, but he won a Fighting Fifth round Newcastle and a Christmas Hurdle at Kempton, and was fairly versatile when it came to courses.
 
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What are you basing that on Grassy? he won the bumper, cruising when he fell in the Relkeel Hurdle, 98 CH jumping poorly but well in contention when making a shocking error which put him out of the race, missed 99, 2000 did run badly but it proved to be his last race over hurdles before dying of a heart attack.

You can't say he never acted on the course there is absolutely no evidence of that........Smacking hurdles was his biggest problem
 
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