2018 Gold Cuppin'

The problem with King George winners despite a decent recent run overall they very seldom win Gold Cups only 13 from 80 runnings

Some recent results

2007 Kauto Star 1st 5/4 Fav ……Won the King George 2006
2008Kauto Star 2nd 8/11 Fav…..Won the King George 2007
2009 Kauto Star 1st 7/4 Fav…..Won the King George 2008
2010 Kauto Star Fell 8/11 Fav…..Won the King George 2009


2011 Long Run Won 7/2 fav ….Won the King George 2010
2012 Long Run 3rd 7/4 fav ….2nd in the King George 2011
2013 Bob’s Worth 11/4 fav….NR in KG 2011 Won the Hennessy
2014 Bobsworth 6/4 Fav Unpl………NR in KG won the Lexus
2015 Silvianco Conti 3/1 fav Unpl…..Won King George 2014
2016 Don Cossack Won 9/4 Fav …Fell King George 2015
2017 Djakadam 3/1 Fav……Nr King George 3rd Lexus

The one horse who might upset the Applecart is Douvan.

Rich Ricci made no secret of the fact he would dearly love to win the King George.

As it is unlikely he will be sent head first into a clash with Altior in the Tingle Creek the chances are they may step him up and have a go.

It would be madness taking on Altior on English soil before the QMCC as Douvan can pick up similar prizes in Ireland without breaking sweat

There really is nothing to prevent them from going after the 120k prize money in the King George and missing the Paddy Power.




If they don't step him up this year when Sizing John who couldn't blow wind up his ass is heading the market then they never will

As for what will go off fav for the Gold Cup....Douvan if he is stepped up..if not then Thistlecrack but I don't think Tizzard will rush him to have have him ready for the King George.
 
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Tanlic said:
The problem with King George winners despite a decent recent run overall they very seldom win Gold Cups only 13 from 80 runnings

Some recent results

2007 Kauto Star 1st 5/4 Fav ……Won the King George 2006
2008Kauto Star 2nd 8/11 Fav…..Won the King George 2007
2009 Kauto Star 1st 7/4 Fav…..Won the King George 2008
2010 Kauto Star Fell 8/11 Fav…..Won the King George 2009


2011 Long Run Won 7/2 fav ….Won the King George 2010
2012 Long Run 3rd 7/4 fav ….2nd in the King George 2011
2013 Bob’s Worth 11/4 fav….NR in KG 2011 Won the Hennessy
2014 Bobsworth 6/4 Fav Unpl………NR in KG won the Lexus
2015 Silvianco Conti 3/1 fav Unpl…..Won King George 2014
2016 Don Cossack Won 9/4 Fav …Fell King George 2015
2017 Djakadam 3/1 Fav……Nr King George 3rd Lexus

The one horse who might upset the Applecart is Douvan.

Rich Ricci made no secret of the fact he would dearly love to win the King George.

As it is unlikely he will be sent head first into a clash with Altior in the Tingle Creek the chances are they may step him up and have a go.

It would be madness taking on Altior on English soil before the QMCC as Douvan can pick up similar prizes in Ireland without breaking sweat

There really is nothing to prevent them from going after the 120k prize money in the King George and missing the Paddy Power.




If they don't step him up this year when Sizing John who couldn't blow wind up his ass is heading the market then they never will

As for what will go off fav for the Gold Cup....Douvan if he is stepped up..if not then Thistlecrack but I don't think Tizzard will rush him to have have him ready for the King George.
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I think the Douvan/SJ argument is a bit too linear, Tanlic. There's no longer any change in comparing the pair based on their earlier clashes, given it now seems abundantly clear that SJ was running over a trip a mile too short for him, every time he was humped by Douvan.

As far as Douvan is concerned, I can't really see any circumstances in which he goes off fave. Whatever happens in his prep, he will almost certainly go to Kempton with open-questions regarding his stamina, and unless SJ and Might Bite seriously disappoint in their own preps, the market will surely favour the horses with the 3-mile form. Douvan's air of invincibility is gone now, and I'm not convinced he will be backed like the regular 'good thing' he has been, in all his starts to date.

Thistlecrack won't make the race, imo, and will get chinned by The Biter, even if he does.

Aughex, the horse-walk is beyond the finishing-line at Kempton, so hopefully limited opportunities for The Biter to chuck it away. I do have concerns about the Gold Cup though - unless they leave the tape in place (which was there on the first circuit in the RSA, but gone by the second, and may have played its part in MB's antics).
 
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I wouldn't write Douvan off as having lost his star power Grass

When Moscow put Barry on his ass, he was written off (by some) but yet was still a good thing by the following festival

Ruby factor is a another issue - granted lord only knows what race they put him in
 
What Ruby factor? Do they anything else for the GC? Its pretty easy what they'll do, Djak unfortunately failed 3 times, he'll go back in trip for the Ryanair, Douvan will go for the big one, UDS for what he was supposed to go last season CC. The only reason I don't see Douvan going on as fav is that he'll be kept at home, beating trees again gaining no experience and the punters gaining no insight into his ability over staying trips against decent horses, so they'll have to be mad to back him into favoritism unless the rest of the main contenders fail in their trials. If MB goes unbeaten during the winter which I think he will, there's no reason not to have him as fav in these circumstances.
 
granger said:
I wouldn't write Douvan off as having lost his star power Grass
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Not really doing that, granger.......but other connections won't run-scared of him now, and for all the glossy, upbeat, reports about him, he still has his well-being to prove when gets back to the track. If he hammers a decent field in, say, the Durkan, then I can see him being backed for the King George......but backed into favouritism? I'm not so sure.

To a large extent, it depends what MG and SJ do in their own preps. If both win, I figure the market will largely be sewn-up between the pair, regardless of what Douvan does beforehand.
 
Aughex said:
f MB goes unbeaten during the winter which I think he will, there's no reason not to have him as fav in these circumstances.
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If Our Duke and Sizing John also go unbeaten, there's two potential reasons to not have Might Bite as favourite.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think the Douvan/SJ argument is a bit too linear, Tanlic. There's no longer any change in comparing the pair based on their earlier clashes, given it now seems abundantly clear that SJ was running over a trip a mile too short for him, every time he was humped by Douvan.

As far as Douvan is concerned, I can't really see any circumstances in which he goes off fave. Whatever happens in his prep, he will almost certainly go to Kempton with open-questions regarding his stamina, and unless SJ and Might Bite seriously disappoint in their own preps, the market will surely favour the horses with the 3-mile form. Douvan's air of invincibility is gone now, and I'm not convinced he will be backed like the regular 'good thing' he has been, in all his starts to date.

Thistlecrack won't make the race, imo, and will get chinned by The Biter, even if he does.

Aughex, the horse-walk is beyond the finishing-line at Kempton, so hopefully limited opportunities for The Biter to chuck it away. I do have concerns about the Gold Cup though - unless they leave the tape in place (which was there on the first circuit in the RSA, but gone by the second, and may have played its part in MB's antics).
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I can't agree with the Sizing John would have been a Champion 2 miler brigade anymore but he was a very good 2 miler made to look ordinary by an absolute superstar

Over 3 miles round Kempton I reckon he'd do exactly the same to SJ as he did at 2 miles

He'd be fav ok if he went for the King George....with his record Mullins training Ruby riding bookies couldn't help themselves. 9/4 max with a good win behind him

As for his injury as much as it stopped him on the day it is not a problem according to the vets...he would have been rested almost as long anyway/.

If they don't give him a chance they don't deserve to have the horse
 
Bit dangerous to assume Douvan would beat SJ at 3m, in the same manner as he did at 2m, in my view.

I certainly wouldn't be looking to take any 9/4 to find.
 
It would be nice to see them clash over a 'fairer' trip

I think we can all agree that

There is for sure no guarantee that Douvan would appreciate the step up in trip with comparative ease
 
I will guarantee it....$$$$$$ :lol: The only thing fair about them meeting over 3 miles is the 9/4 Grassy is talking about........I would def need to restrain myself

What we are talking about is a horse who won a Gold Cup with questionable form as those who finished 2nd to him have 1 the grand total of 1 race between them during the season.

With Don Cossack and Thistlecrack gone the path was clear for new blood but if Thistlecrack bounces back and Might Bite behaves himself Sizing John may have to be settling for place money in the big chases this season.
 
One things for sure, the Gold Cup will keep us talking all winter. If they all stay fit it could be a classic.
 
Part of the journey

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Tanlic said:
What we are talking about is a horse who won a Gold Cup with questionable form as those who finished 2nd to him have 1 the grand total of 1 race between them during the season.
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That was also the case with the placed horses in Don Cossack's Gold Cup, but I don't see you running-down that form for the same reason.

It is a very dubious measure of how good/bad a particular race is, imo.
 
Sorry Grassy but your spouting shite again...Djakadam had won the John Durkan and would most likely have made it 2 had he not toppled over at Cheltenham. Meanwhile Don Poli had easily beaten Many Clouds and went on to win the Lexus plus Don Cossack was a far more impressive winner IMO.

As far as it being a dubious way of judging a race (Using form) I can't think of a better way
 
Forgot about Don Poli's Lexus - you're right enough.

Using how many races horses have won in a season, is a terrible way to measure their merit, imo. It's far too crude, and does not take into account the tasks they've been handed. Exotic Dancer only ever won 6 races from 21 chase starts.........but in defeat, he put-up some huge figures, behind some of the best horses seen in the 25 years. If you just looked at his win-record, you wouldn't really get a feel for how good he was.
 
I believe Newbury was the target; though that was perhaps conditional on him running under top-weight in Listowel, which obviously didn't happen. Can't find anything more contemporary than that.
 
Jessie on Our Duke:

[FONT=&quot]I’m really looking forward to him. He looks fantastic and seems to be well forward. He’ll be given an entry in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal and that will be his starting point. After that, he might take in the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase over the shorter trip, just to sharpen him up, then we’ll look at the Lexus, the Irish Gold Cup and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The owners weren’t keen to go to the Cheltenham Festival last season and I was quite happy with that with a view to the future, but we’ll be very much hoping to be there this season with him.[/FONT]
 
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