2018 Gold Cuppin'

Ah. Serves me right for not looking and talking boll*ocks. Was convinced that race was always over 2m4f.

I am putting myself on ignore until December 24th! :lol:
 
Wants to keep him right off the radar and send him to the 3m handicap chase on Day One. Can't have him for the Gold Cup.
 
Open Chases and the Foxhunters is the plan I think with that one, currently 6/1 fav
 
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More likely sending him there to get the freshness out of him to stop him pulling like a train at Haydock.
 
The Biter gets an entry for Betfair Chase after all.

Bristol De Mai
Cue Card
Double Treasure
Might Bite
More Of That
Outlander
Shantou Flyer
Sizing John
Tea For Two
Traffic Fluide
Yala Enki
 
K Vic back with Mullins and rumoured plans for Foxhunters stalled in favour of more ambitious targets according to RP.

PS. Sorry Granger. Just seen your earlier post.
 
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Haven't looked at this thread so far and can't be arsed to read through 12 pages (no offence to anyone intended) but I've got two ante-post.

Un Temps Pour Tout 50/1
Might Bite (twice at 14/1, once at 12/1)

Singlefarmpayment should give UTPT a big boost in the Hennessy and Go Conquer already did so last Saturday. I can't believe it isn't a contender but they might keep it for the National.
 
You probably were out shopping yesterday :) She fired in a double yesterday with both hacking up by 5 and 6 lengths.

Bristol wouldn't blow wind up his backside if he were only half fit fully fit he'd hack up in what looks a very weak renewal
 
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It wouldn't surprise anyone if BDM would improve past SJ, he was only couple of lengths away in the GC before making a stop ending mistake at the last. SJ is no world beater either so if he downgrades 1-2lbs from last season he wouldn't have won any races, so for the Betfair Chase he needs to come in the same form or even better as thats where Cue Card shows his best and BDM could continue his improvement.
 
Tanlic said:
You probably were out shopping yesterday :) She fired in a double yesterday with both hacking up by 5 and 6 lengths.

Bristol wouldn't blow wind up his backside if he were only half fit fully fit he'd hack up in what looks a very weak renewal
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Oops [emoji54] hadn't seen that, it was after Our Dukes run I had a look at her stats and they were frighteningly bad, hopefully they have turned the corner
 
SJ was rated 153 as a 2 mile chaser, 168 a mile+ farther. I'd say his affliction was caused by the wrong trip, not by the several other causes which exposed him over the minimum trip. Meanwhile to win a Betfair Chase, in the last couple of years the lowest rated performance was 172. First run & having to travel, I don't see how they'll help him and the confidence you have in him, given that so far he has won all his staying races by 1-2 lengths.
 
Aughex said:
Meanwhile to win a Betfair Chase, in the last couple of years the lowest rated performance was 172.
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You therefore have to ask yourself the question, which of the entries is capable of running-up to this kind of mark, and it's surely self-evident that SJ is more likely than any of the others?

SJ has now won all three starts at 3 miles: all of them G1s, and all of them in the three most important races of the year for an Irish staying chaser. Trying to run that form down based on his winning-distances is somewhat odd, imo. He finds a way of getting it done, regardless of who he is up against, and as far as his FTO record is concerned, it's actually very good.......if you consider running Douvan to 8L, and finishing 5L clear of the 150-odd rated third, over a trip a mile short of your best, to qualify as 'very good'.

SJ is very difficult to oppose, any way I see it.
 
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Actually he got a rating of 164 when he won the Kinloch Brae which is over 2m4f not 3 miles so he has improved only 4lbs since he was stepped up to 3m..he still wouldn't blow wind up Douvan's ass at any trip ;))

That said what else is there out there? Might Bite has yet to run in a top class chase for adults, Thistlecrack is on the sick List, Coneygree will never come back, they are talking of running Yorkhill in the Champion Hurdle and Douvan being injured means he has got to go back to the drawing board and win a 2 mile chase somewhere.

So 168 is more than enough to be winning this poxy renewal.
 
It'd be hard to oppose at anything higher than 3/1. How many times did he had to travel on his first race? I don't think BDM and CC are that incapable of getting to him and 5/4 it makes it easy to oppose him.
 
I'd rather go to a Grade 1 Chase without a run, than on the back of a fall. Much as I love Cue Card, his recent efforts can't be ignored (two falls in last three outings), and age withers them all eventually.

I know a few on here like BdM, but his limitations have been exposed, imo. I hear all the talk about him only being a 6yo, but he has had 15 chase starts, so he is not an inexperienced campaigner. Is he capable of further improvement, given he is somewhat of an open-book already? I personally don't see it. He certainly didn't improve in beating the 152-rated Blaklion by 1/2L, conceding 6lbs, and won't necessarily improve for the run, given he has always run with credit FTO (defeats due to inadequate trips rather than fitness disadvantage).

Any way I look at it, odds-against SJ is fair enough.
 
Sizing John had 4 tough races in the space of three months at the end of last season. Not many horses go on to improve after winning the Gold Cup and I'd prefer to side with Bristol De Mai, who has very few - if any - question marks over Sizing John, who we've yet to see after those exploits.

and I've asked myself this, Would Djakadam, Minella Rocco, Native River or Empire of Dirt get within a couple of lengths of BDM over 3m round Haydock, in likely soft ground?. Personally I doubt it and that's the level of form Sizing John was posting in those wins.

For the remainder of the season I'd be with Sizing John but in this race I'll be with Bristol De Mai all day long. I love Cue Card but I can't see it.
 
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I disagree, Lee.

For one, Djakadam in Soft ground over Haydock's 3m would be a very stern test indeed for BdM; something that might equally apply to EoD, if he showed anything like his Irish Gold Cup form (imo).

Native River already boast a comfortable victory over BdM at the trip on Soft ground (winning just under 4L conceding 1lb), and with fewer chase runs under his belt, is likely more progressive anyway. Minella Rocco is a dour-stayer who I would expect to dead-heat with a tortoise over 3m.

Regardless, I don't see the comparison as particularly valid anyway. You can't equate wins in the top three Grade 1s for staying chasers, with an isolated handicap performance from BdM against a field of rags, over C&D. You just can't.
 
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