2019 Grand National

My bad, it’s already been put back, didn’t realise, thought it went in after the race. Cheers anyhow guys
 
I still haven't seen the race through again but I'm starting to get over my disappointment of not backing the winner of the race for just the second time in several years.

Knowing a lot of the family were on all the principals to varying degrees, helped by my pinstickers' guide they're telling me, is helping a lot and looking back through my comments I'm happy that the only two really big things I got wrong were Tiger Roll and Noble Endeavor.


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<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Tiger Roll[/TD]
[TD]Reigning champ, owned by the odious O’Learys of Ryanair notoriety but trained by the genius that is Gordon Elliott. Reckoned by many to have the best chance of emulating the legendary Red Rum (1973/74) in winning successive Grand Nationals. But they said the same thing about Many Clouds a few years ago and of plenty of others in between. Stamina assured, bang in form following repeat Cheltenham win and looking genuinely better than ever. Could possibly end up the shortest-priced favourite in the history of the race but will seriously need to be at least that much better than he’s looked given the class of opposition this time and would have lost in another stride last year to the more favoured Pleasant Company.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[TD]4/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

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<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Magic Of Light[/TD]
[TD]6/4 fav to beat Rathvinden in the Bobbyjo but her jumping let her down. Rathvinden meets again on 9lbs better terms so her task will be a tough one but if Rathvinden doesn’t get round she could have a shout.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[TD]80/1[/TD]
[/TR]
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[TD]Rathvinden[/TD]
[TD]Old (11yo) for a second-season novice but form is clearly progressive and he’s 8lbs well-in following his easy win in the Bobbyjo, often a significant trial race. Vying for second-favouritism for good reason and a very serious contender with further improvement likely and stamina unlikely to be an issue.[/TD]
[TD]*****[/TD]
[TD]8/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

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<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Walk In The Mill[/TD]
[TD]Beat Vieux Lion Rouge over these fences in December to ensure he had a chance of making the cut. Has been campaigned honestly but that may be his undoing as the handicapper knows all about him. Connections deserve a big run but an honourable placing looks his best hope.[/TD]
[TD]***[/TD]
[TD]28/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

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<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Anibale Fly[/TD]
[TD]McManus horse. Again carries the first colours and owner’s retained jockey. Couldn’t win last year when officially 9lbs well handicapped following his excellent third in the Gold Cup. Went second there last month and was raised another 8lbs (having come back down 3lbs in the interim) so in theory has a great chance again. I’m not convinced about the Cheltenham race, though, and happy to dismiss his chances here.[/TD]
[TD]**[/TD]
[TD]16/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

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<tbody>[TR]
[TD]One For Arthur[/TD]
[TD]Impressive winner in 2017 but off the track all last year. Two non-completions this season a worry but has reportedly had intensive physiotherapy and been pleasing in racecourse gallops and schooling. I thought he was a potential Gold Cup contender two years ago and if he’s within 15 lengths of the lead turning for home not many, if any, will finish in front of him. He’s a proper stayer with real class but will need to be a Gold Cup contender to defy his new rating.[/TD]
[TD]****[/TD]
[TD]28/1[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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I'm a wee bit surprised there isn't more comment on the race since Saturday.

Was it so boring because the favourite won? Just so expected?

I've watched the race through another three times, once in slo-mo, plus I've rewound/replayed a few sections.

I still believe Noble Endeavor was a serious plot for the race but now wonder if it took to the fences or the big field. Maybe the ground wasn't soft enough for it. I noticed it lost a lot of ground very quickly from bypassing the first fence on the second circuit so the third despite not coming under any pressure and it was among the back markers by Becher's. It had seemed okay over the fences in the Becher chase but on Saturday it did lose a length or two at every other fence through being careful. I'm tempted to say the jockey didn't have the fibre to get it attacking those fences when a longer stride into them could have made ground. He seemed content to let it find its own stride but maybe those were his orders. If he comes back next year he'll carry sickness insurance but I think they'll abandon hopes for him in this race.

Also likely to abandon hope of winning this race are Step Back and Rock The Kasbah.

I wouldn't be surprised if Step Back came out and won the Whitbread again. I'd backed him at 50/1 and 60/1 for Saturday in the immediate aftermath of last year's Whitbread but I knew by the second or third fence that he wouldn't be winning. The fences seemed to exaggerate his tendency to go right. I don't recall ever seeing a horse go so badly right in all my years of watching the race.

Rock The Kasbah never got to the front and was well back early after a mistake at the first. His race was over at that point. I didn't back him because I didn't think he was feasibly handicapped but I did expect him to take them as far as two out. I imagine he'll be out at Sandown too.

I see Derek Fox has said One For Arthur had a nightmare run. I think he got a nightmare ride. It looked to me like he was giving the horse the same tactical ride as when winning but this year the ground was faster and the pace slower than in 2017. He was okay at halfway, about 15 lengths off the pace but by the fence after the Canal Turn had got over 30 lengths back. He made his move from four out and impressed with the pace that took him into fifth place at two out, just as he had done when winning, but he then hit his wall. Maybe he was just short of peak fitness following his disappointing campaign.

Almost invariably, the race is won by whichever of the best handicapped horses copes on the day and avoids bad luck. I don't believe it is a lottery and haven't for years but you do need to avoid bad luck.

Having backed Crisp like a good thing in 1973, there was no way I wasn't going to back Red Rum in 1974. Back then there were no 'official' ratings, just the weights set by the handicapper and I wasn't doing my own ratings seriously at that stage, certainly not over jumps. The chances are I'd have let a 23lbs rise in ORs put me off but even at 17 years of age I could tell Rummy had just put up a freakish performance. I backed him every year after that too.

I'm wondering, therefore, why I couldn't bring myself to back Tiger Roll the other day, despite a couple of Damascene moments along the way and despite having piled into Auxerre for the Lincoln at the same price. The first was when I checked the result of the Boyne Hurdle and saw, on the face of it, that he had posted seemingly a career high [over hurdles] by some way but then took the view that sometimes these small-field Irish race fall apart and, after all, old Bless The Wings was within 30 lengths of him and the time was very slow. The second was on Thursday evening following the discussion on here with wilsonl and I went back through the form. I could then see the argument but chose to let my belief that he was entitled to win the cross country race at the festival as he did prevail; that it didn't represent the improvement that the handicapper had said. I'd thought the same about the Gold Cup form, since I'd gone low with that race, and couldn't see Anibale Fly doing better than a minor placing so reckoned that's maybe where Tiger Roll would be but the latter has extended his superiority despite being worse off. That would confirm his considerable improvement from last year after all.

I'd also take issue with the TV commentator who repeated referred to bad mistakes by Tiger Roll. He nodded a little at two or three fences but apart from that jumped with his usual economy. Rathvinden made at least three notable mistakes on the last lap and who knows what her mistake at the last took out of Magic Of Light. I also wonder if Rathvinden ran a little with the choke out so i'd be keen to hear if Ruby has said anything to that effect or if any other observers are of the same opinion.

Anyway, I woke up this morning prepared to come on here and stand up for being wrong about Tiger Roll so let's get the slagging over with...
 
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I'd never slag someone for stating their opinion - you made your case and laid in it (to mangle a phrase). Having backed it at 25-1 a couple of months ago I was delighted to see Tiger Roll do it but must admit that my only worried moments came with the pecking on landing twice in succession towards the end of the race.

Never worried after the final fence.
 
Yes, simmo. From about halfway I was repeatedly muttering through the mayhem (and clenched teeth :lol:) to my brother sitting beside me that Tiger Roll was pishing it.
 
Agree they’re unlikely to go for this again with Step Back. I was amused to read on Saturday morning that they regularly had to fish horses out of the canal before the installation of a running rail after the Canal Turn and I reckon Step Back would have been one of those going for a swim


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I watched it with a load of friends, we were all on Tiger Roll, as Simmo says the pecks at 4 out and 5 out were only minor worry, from the turn in it was just plain sailing. This years ground obviously negated the weight rise and the horse just seems to have improved.
On a line through Anibale Fly, he certainly wouldn't look out of place in The Gold Cup.

We all have opinions DO, that's what makes the game great, we all get it wrong occasionally but at least you have the Cojones to put your's down in writing.
 
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As I stated before the Tiger is a remarkable horse. It annoys me when people say he can't possibly be compared to Red Rum as the race is so much easier. SO what! He can only do what is put in front of him. He's Flat bred like Rummy too and he has achieved a colossal amount in his racing life so far. He's similar in type - small, exceptionally well-balanced and above all highly intelligent. A Triumph, 4 Miler, Cross Country races, a Boyne Hurdle - how many other horses are that versatile? And he's still only 9.

Another National would certainly be in his capabilities but I can completely understand why connections are saying no. In this ridiculous day and age when we are dictated to by Social Media, you just couldn't entertain the thought of the "People's Horse" getting injured in the race again. Its a shame as its clear the horse gets such a buzz from running in the race. It was interesting listening to Gordon saying they nearly sold him when they thought he was losing his way but Cross Country perked him up - I think he was getting bored simply because he's so bright and suddenly these new fences sparked his interest. God knows how they are going to keep him entertained when he retires - I think the public appearances that Red Rum did and enjoyed are going to be necessary.
 
Like you [DO] I was surprised that Ruby made so much use of Rathvinden from so early. I am not sure if it was a tactical decision to avoid trouble on what they thought was a 'good thing' who would win from anywhere so they decided to take luck out of the equation. I have fancied RV for this since he won the 4 Miler and backed him at long odds for small stakes. I was never so confident in a GN bet, especially when he took PoBE's out. I really fancied Cadmium to win on Friday and backed him win and in an each way double again with RV - 20s and 10s. I have a touch of Shroedingers syndrome. I think Ruby might have ridden a good and bad race all at the same time. I think the mare may have left it there on Saturday and if I was to back one for next year today it would be Cadmium if they can teach him to stay.
 
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jinnyj said:
As I stated before the Tiger is a remarkable horse. It annoys me when people say he can't possibly be compared to Red Rum as the race is so much easier. SO what! He can only do what is put in front of him. He's Flat bred like Rummy too and he has achieved a colossal amount in his racing life so far. He's similar in type - small, exceptionally well-balanced and above all highly intelligent. A Triumph, 4 Miler, Cross Country races, a Boyne Hurdle - how many other horses are that versatile? And he's still only 9.

Another National would certainly be in his capabilities but I can completely understand why connections are saying no. In this ridiculous day and age when we are dictated to by Social Media, you just couldn't entertain the thought of the "People's Horse" getting injured in the race again. Its a shame as its clear the horse gets such a buzz from running in the race. It was interesting listening to Gordon saying they nearly sold him when they thought he was losing his way but Cross Country perked him up - I think he was getting bored simply because he's so bright and suddenly these new fences sparked his interest. God knows how they are going to keep him entertained when he retires - I think the public appearances that Red Rum did and enjoyed are going to be necessary.
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Rather than saying you can't compare the two, I think it's impossible NOT to compare them. On Friday evening when Mrs O came into the study to tell me what she fancied (Tiger Roll, Rathvinden and Jury Duty) we spoke for a few minutes about Tiger Roll. She'd seen a bit of video and fell in live with the horse and I talked about how like Rummy it was and how it could be THE next Rummy before immediately adding, "but I could never back it at 4/1 in a National". Thinking back, that's probably it. At 10/1 I'd probably have at least considered putting enough on it to cover all my other bets, just in case.
 
I'd wondered why Cadmium's price halved while connections were in the parade ring! It was a spectacular round of jumping all right but Willie's first thought was that he wouldn't stay with his style of running and that he'd see how far we can go up the graded route. However, that was Friday so who knows what happens next. I wouldn't mind him getting a go in the 2 mile Champion at Punchestown.
 
Touching briefly on Don Poli and Outlander, I totally dismissed their chances because they'd been up for sale ahead of the race so couldn't possibly have been anywhere near fancied by Gigginstown. The buyers - to me - clearly have more money than sense in buying them but, fair play, both ran much better than I anticipated and just maybe they might in due course get a chunk of their money back.

Phil Kirby certainly has a knack for sweetening up others' rejects so it will be interesting to see what he does with Blaklion and Don Poli.
 
I agree with DO regarding Noble Endeavour. Had GE plot job written all over it. Sighter over fences, and a race for fitness at Cheltenham. Just wasn’t to be.

Regarding Don Poli, he had a belting first circuit, just seemed to lose interest before or after the chair. Not sure where they’ll be going with him, but Kirby has insisted National will be the target again next year. If they can get a new lease of life into him, who knows, very much doubt he’ll be winning any races before then.

Winner was impressive, and i really did fancy him. Couldn’t back him at them prices though. Really need to start taking advice on board, all part of learning. A 7/2 winner is better than a 50/1 loser who had a good run. Something I’ll be taking with me moving forward.

Agree with the comments regarding Cadmium, will keep a keen eye on him moving forward.

I’d also be seriously contemplating sticking the Tiger in the Gold Cup. Not sure what I’d be doing with him next season, thankfully I’m not paid to make them decisions.
 
Owner said on Luck On Sunday yesterday he was thinking land another cross country at Cheltenham then retire him.

So lump on for the GN :whistle:
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Owner said on Luck On Sunday yesterday he was thinking land another cross country at Cheltenham then retire him.

So lump on for the GN :whistle:
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If you have a chance of rewriting history by winning 3 nationals on the trot then I'm sure they will.he would only carry another 5lb.its not as though they have to carry 12 stone like Red Rum did.
 
Tiger Roll might be freakish in the way that Red Rum was, ie he needs a unique test (as jinnyj says) to appeal to his need for a challenge. I think he was beaten in a photo by Red Candle in the Hennessy earlier in that first season but didn't do much later. He won the Scottish National only a week after his first win but from the next season on was never the same horse elsewhere although I put that down to him not being off anywhere else.

Would Tiger Roll win the Gold Cup? I'd like to see him try but it does have to be said we're going through a poor phase among the 'top' staying chasers. Clan Des Obeaux and Might Bite are brilliant in their own right but it's looking the Gold Cup is a step too far form.

So would TR win a King George. Almost certainly not.

I was imprecise with what I said too. I meant better-handicapped horses. He could end up trying to give 20lbs to something genuinely only 10lbs inferior.
 
One moment they say Tiger Roll will be retired after the Cheltenham cross country, then they say he will have an entry in the GN. Part of me thinks it's the start of a campaign to lean on the handicapper to try and make him allocate a lower weight that he might do otherwise in the hope of attracting him to the race. Alternatively They could "find" another horse with a higher rating (assuming there is one) to keep Tiger Roll's down couldn't they so that the latter got in on 11st or similar?
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Alternatively They could "find" another horse with a higher rating (assuming there is one) to keep Tiger Roll's down couldn't they so that the latter got in on 11st or similar?
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If he's gone up to 172 they'll need to go some either to get one in that will keep his weight down or to campaign him to get in off less than 168. On the other hand, he could keep loads of potential rivals out of the handicap.
 
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