2019 Grand National

I've done my first trawl of the UK entries for the race and struck another bet.

The Young Master 40/1 ew, 5pl, nrnb/bog.

Everybody knows everything about this one's form and he looked very much on the way back to his best when winning at Cheltenham in the autumn. On that best form he has to be considered very well handicapped and, just turned 10yo, he's got an ideal blend of age and experience.

I'm happy to overlook his odd jumping errors as that sometimes makes them respect the Aintree fences.

68th in the list and off 142 he'll be 2lbs out of the handicap if BDM stands his ground and might not even make the cut but I had him running to 160 at his previous best so that makes him one of the classiest horses in the race off a lenient mark and if SWC chooses to punish himself to do the weight that would be a plus. He won the 2016 Whitbread off 148 and was only 20/1 when off 150 and an early faller in One For Arthur's National.

There's no down side to the bet at this stage that I can see with the concessions in place, other than missing out on the multiple places likely to be on offer on the day.
 
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Not sure where she stands in your figures DO, but one thing for sure is that Gordon Eilliot is too happy with the mark that Shattered Love has got in the National, and cant pass it up. This when he has Tiger Roll in the yard. I've taken my first AP bet on the race in years on the back of it. 50/1 too big.
 
HawkWing said:
Not sure where she stands in your figures DO, but one thing for sure is that Gordon Eilliot is too happy with the mark that Shattered Love has got in the National, and cant pass it up. This when he has Tiger Roll in the yard. I've taken my first AP bet on the race in years on the back of it. 50/1 too big.
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Cheers, HW, I'll get round to checking her out through the week. He also has Noble Endeavor, mind.

The last mare to win the race was...?
 
I've just about finished my first full trawl of the field (down to 140).

Shattered Love doesn't feature too high in my ratings but has maybe been kept under the radar a bit.

It's not hard to see why Elliott would say if he had 15 contenders he'd run them all. A lot of his are looking well handicapped.

I haven't seen anything to put me off Noble Endeavor as the main fancy but I do have one little concern and that's the effect the 2017 Ultima appears to have had on the principals.

It appears to have done for Un Temps Pour Tout and possibly Singlefarmpayment who hasn't been near that level since. Others who ended up well beaten, like Go Conquer, have franked the form no end but it looked a savage race at the time and Noble Endeavor probably wasn't over it when beaten in the Irish National next time behind Our duke and was then off for a full season. His only run this season was a jog round as a sighter for the National fences in the Becher, which Elliott seemed very happy with. It also qualified him for the race.

However, others are looking decent candidates should misfortune befall Noble Endeavor.

Valseur Lido was once rated 169 but gets in here off 146. That's a huge reduction. I had some money on him last year at long odds when he was off 158 but he appeared not to stay. He could get a bit closer off this mark but his stamina has to questioned.

I think if a mare is going to do it then Baie Des Iles could be the one. I'm happy to write off last year's disappointing effort as she was only a 7yo but she's a Grade 2 winner in France as recently as June and has form in some of the top Irish staying handicaps (third in the Punchestown Trial last February, won it the year before).

Given the value of the race now, I wonder how many of the runners are no longer one- or two-year plots but three-year plots. I'm not prepared to exclude any form up to three years back as you just never know with some of these trainers, especially the Irish ones.

But I always want class on my side and I'm looking for something with at least 160 in its CV or potential.

Tiger Roll might well just be much improved this season if his recent hurdles win is a true guide. After One For Arthur won I thought he was young enough to develop into a Gold Cup contender with age and experience but he's not had his troubles to seek. It's a shame he's not managed to complete his races this season.
 
Davy Russell being jocked up on Noble Endeavour has prompted me to follow you in on this. Easy at the prices and there is every chance that it wont be available after tuesday.
 
Yeah, I was just coming in to mention this.

He stands out a mile on his form in the Ultima a couple of years ago and is now 4lbs lower.

I just can't see them risking leaving Aintree glory behind here, though. I've backed him ew for the Ultima (20/1) and see he's going blue and the booking of Russell can't possibly be a negative but maybe the instructions will be to win if he can do so without having a hard race or just make sure he gets a proper educational ahead of the big one but so far there's no move in his price for that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yeah, I was just coming in to mention this.

He stands out a mile on his form in the Ultima a couple of years ago and is now 4lbs lower.

I just can't see them risking leaving Aintree glory behind here, though. I've backed him ew for the Ultima (20/1) and see he's going blue and the booking of Russell can't possibly be a negative but maybe the instructions will be to win if he can do so without having a hard race or just make sure he gets a proper educational ahead of the big one but so far there's no move in his price for that.
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It's interesting this.he looks good for the ultima but the national comes quicker this year,and horses havent a good record after winning at Cheltenham.but if anyone can do it elliot can.
 
Elliott also has General Principle (Jack Kennedy) in the Ultima (and National). I imagine Russell has been the long-term jockey plan for NE for Aintree since the Ultima two years ago if not before. I just wonder if GP is the stable's main hope for Tuesday.
 
You'd have thought right but that doesnt mean that he wont go close on Tuesday and Davy's booking means (to me) that they expect a good run.
 
Elliott must have a ridiculously strong hand again this year. Tiger Roll does look better again this year, which I imagine wasn't anticipated when they started preparing Noble Endeavor for the race and it would be near-impossible now for Russell to desert Tiger Roll. That would be almost like Brian Fletcher deserting Red Rum ahead of the 1974 National.

However, I was very pleased with Noble Endeavor's run the other day. Watching the replay this morning I also heard the commentator mention him staying on nicely towards the line. It was the kind of run I half-anticipated.
 
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I'm pretty KD said immediately over the race his job was to get the horse there for Davy to ride or words to that effect.

But I'll be very happy to see DR on NE.
 
Like many I suppose, I’m normally keen to try and take on those at the head of the market but the front three this year boast incredibly strong credentials. Rathvinden arguably has the most to answer but only in terms of how he jumps round and handles the course.

I’ve pieces on Tiger and Rathvinden at bigger prices so while I’ll probably press up on the Mullins horse at double figures, it’s likely the only other horses I’ll have in my portfolio are Anibale Fly and Lake View Lad e/w (about who I’ve already taken 25/1).
 
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