2019 Grand National

Smaller gap between Chelt and Aintree this year. Tempted to avoid Festival horses for that reason. Gone with Rathvinden and Mall Dini at this stage.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Latest acceptors

[FONT="]10 scratched: ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS, ALLYSSON MONTERG, AUVERGNAT, BALLYARTHUR, CALETT MAD, JAROB, MISSED APPROACH, ROGUE ANGEL, THE DUTCHMAN, WESTERNER POINT SKIPTHECUDDLES & LIEUTENANT COLONEL not qualified[/FONT]

https://myemail.constantcontact.com...ional.html?soid=1110108263682&aid=zTDvSTK0iPc
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It says ALYSSON MONTERG was taken out and no 72 is isleofhopendreams.
Last night I was having a look at the sporting life runners and no 72 is alysson monterg.
I've backed isleofhope so I hope sporting life is wrong.
 
The card isn't coming up for me at the RP site and I can't find any other links to it.

Anyone help?

I do see that Noble Endeavor is blue across the board at oddschecker though. 'Bout time...
 
There's a card coming up at the RP site but I'm not convinced it's the latest decs as only 3 have been marked non-runners (American, The Last Samuri and Give Me A Copper).
 
I have been chipping away at Blow By Blow for a few months now (360/1 to 150/1) on the machine. I was delighted to see him skip the festival but of course the irish national could be the target. Hopefully the 10 st 2lb will sway them towards the big one. Of course he could be just a different horse this year but at the price I will take my chance.
 
I realise I'm probably farting against thunder but I would urge caution regarding Tiger Roll at short odds.

On my figures the first half-dozen home in the X-Country have run very much in line with expectations. The blip, if there is one, isn't the Tiger. It's Jarob in fifth place, who has run maybe 7lbs better.

I have Tiger Roll only very marginally better than when winning the National. He did appear to win easily but with Auvergnat not running his race he shouldn't have had to struggle. He does look better this season on the evidence of his other races but he hasn't needed to be kept under the radar as before.

I could be tempted to lay him at 2/7, and possibly for a place.

I stand by what I said before: Tiger Roll might not be the best-handicapped in the stable, let alone the whole race.
 
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I'd be surprised if anybody on here would be backing him at 7/2 DO, for all that he looks the most likely winner.

I'd also be surprised if there wasn't bits of c. 6/1 available on the morning though and then he becomes semi backable. But granted the luck that every National runner needs, Rathvinden, Lake View Lad and Anibale Fly all offer better e/w value at the enhanced place terms that will be available. If the last two have sufficient time to recover from their Cheltenham exertions that is.
 
wilsonl said:
I'd be surprised if anybody on here would be backing him at 7/2 DO, for all that he looks the most likely winner.
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Yes, I'd be surprised if many on here backed him at that price but I felt the general mood was that he was the one to beat.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, I'd be surprised if many on here backed him at that price but I felt the general mood was that he was the one to beat.
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He is IMO but does he have a >= 22% of winning the race ?. Yes, again I think he does but that still doesn't make me want to rush out and back him at that price in a race like this.

The flip side of this is that if he's available at 6/1 on the morning of the race then you should ask yourself, depsite your doubts, are his chances better than 14.5% ? and I'd be amazed if there were many followers of the sport who didn't.
 
It's exactly 100 years since the winner, ridden by Lester's granddad, started at less than 6/1 and 99 years since the SP was less than 13/2.
 
I spent two days studying the form looking for value. All i came up with was a migraine and a conclusion is Tiger Roll the next Red Rum?
 
What price any individual horse to get round? Somewhere between even money and 2/1? If you say that Tiger Roll is 5/4 to get round safely, a 7/2 SP would say that he's evens to win if he completes.
 
I presume you've based the even money to 2/1 estimate on a rough average from the number of finishers in recent years Archie.

If so then I'd be inclined to adjust the number based on those that didn't fall rather than didn't finish because there are a lot of horses each year that either can't go the pace, don't see the trip out or just don't take to the course for whatever reason and are pulled up. And I'd suggest it's safe to say Tiger doesn't fall into any of those categories so it's the odds against him falling or being brought down/badly hampered.

I appreciate this isn't particularly scientific but in the last three years there were 13, 8 and 11 horses that either fell, UR or were brought down - this obviously doesn't consider those that were so badly hampered they had to be later pulled up. But taking that admittedly small sample (frorm a variety of going from Gd - Sft - Heavy) we're looking at c. 1/3 chances of the horse standing up. Thereafter his chances of beating the other horses are, by using the same statistics, increased as there's likely to be only c. 28 others left standing.

By the time you've eliminated the doubtful stayers, slow plodders and plain badly handicapped horses this will come down even further.

Regardless, I'm not suggesting 7/2 offers any value but I genuinely think 6/1 would. This doesn't mean he'll win of course but the potential return would be greater than his chance of winning - IMHO.
 
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As it stands, we don't know whether he'll get to the start line, we don't know what weight he'll carry, we don't know what the going will be and we don't know who will oppose him.

It's impossible to say that any price is value until after the race.
 
I'd have loved to have seen Tiger Roll vs Hedgehunter on level weights round Aintree. Think Hedgehunter would take it. We all forgetting we would be looking at a dual winner in Hedgehunter had it not been for an absolutely ridiculous ride on him the year Amberleigh House won, same could be said for Clan Royal as well.

Won 2005 and third in 2006, some animal.

The 2019 race is intriguing. Tiger Roll provides no value for me, I'd want 8s before touching him. If Elliot can get Don Poli back anywhere near his old form I'd be seriously interested. Could be utter blind faith though. We'll see from the jockey bookings, Rachel Blackmore would interest me.
 
He’s still basically on the bridle coming over the last fence in last years national as well, I didn’t realise his superiority at the time until revisiting it now. Russell asks him to kick on and then he nearly gets collared near the line, would that worry anyone now? Not saying he doesn’t stay but it was a close finish considering he looked to have the race won 2/3 out last year.
 
Will copy this across to the longshot thread:

I've just taken 25/1 ew 5pl bog/nrnb Pairofbrowneyes.

It will be officially 9lbs well in on the day and I reckon once people latch on to that it will come in to 10s or less, regardless of how else its chances might shape up.

If it doesn't run, no harm done.
 
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