2019 Grand National

Don't know about tiggers but ever since Maori Venture won the National I haven't let suspect jumping put me off anything. The time I relented and let it put me off Rhyme N Reason it went and won despite doing the splits at one point.

Plenty of so-called iffy jumpers have won the race. It's as if the fences really wake them up.
 
Outsider said:
Bristol de mai to be taken out of national.weights to go up at least 4lb.
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This could snowball.

Would they want Anibale Fly to carry 11-10 after a hard race at Cheltenham?

Would Alpha Des Obeaux be up to carrying 11-10 if AF came out too? Maybe Elliott will want to keep ADO there just to help Tiger Roll and the rest of his team, though.

The Storyteller isn't a Gigginstown horse so I don't see Elliott asking another owner to do them a favour unless there's an agreed quid pro quo somewhere along the line.

Valtor might go for the Topham.

Suddenly Tiger Roll is top weight...

And the bottom weight is 10-9/10-8.




(Ok, maybe not so suddenly, but you know what I mean.)
 
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If I had the money I’d buy Don Poli for a pet.

I’ll strike him off if he’s getting sold, must be showing nothing after his injury.
 
Desert Orchid said:
On my handicapping for this race, a pound equates to 2l.
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I would argue in favour of anyone who stated "no horse jumped better than Valseur Lido in last years race". Fence to fence he was brilliant, his two Canal turn leaps were breathtaking. If ever a horse enjoyed himself, he did.


Probably far too near the pace for an animal carrying so much weight, but only weakened going to the last, finally finishing 55L behind the more conservatively ridden winner.


Last year he was coming back from injury, this year he has a 21Lb pull with Tiger Roll, better ground, a touch of class, and a campaign designed to bring about a drop down the handicap.


All he needs to find an extra 11Lb is Rachael and the blue hat, if anyone can find me a better 100/1 shot; I'm all ears
 
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Yes, I mentioned it a few weeks back in this thread around the time I did my first trawl, around the same time I backed it (14/3, according to my records, 100/1).

I'm not sure about its stamina but just felt it was ridiculously well handicapped on its old form, racing off 146 when two years ago its OR was 169.
 
I've just watched the replay of Step Back winning the Whitbread last spring for the first time since that weekend.

Jeez, he was impressive. I held off as he was one that got away that day, having arrived at the conclusion on the Thursday that he could be a really lively 50/1 shot (top-rated with a 'p' on my figures) only to discover on the Friday at tea-time he was about 10/1 and I stupidly let that put me off him. At the time I didn't let it bother me:

Step Back turned out to be a good thing after all and 10/1 ended up being a steal. I’m not sure I’d have backed it even at 14/1 as I couldn’t be sure its novice chase form would stand up. I’d probably have ventured a saver on it at that price but I have no sense of a missed winner after the race. There’s no gnashing of teeth here. Not backing it was a cold decision and I’m comfortable with that. It turned out to be a wrong decision but I’m happy to live with it.
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I did act, though. In my review of the race I wrote:

The handicapper was clearly taken by Step back, raising him 14lbs. However, he’s lowered runner-up Rock The Kasbah 2lbs so he will be on my radar for the Hennessy. While it isn’t unusual for horses not to be at their best by this time of the season – and plenty of the runners on the card clearly were – it should be noted that the first few home here were pretty fresh, the lightly-raced winner apart the most recent race was 63 days previously. I’m looking at rating the race via Present Man and Relentless Dreamer, which I had 9lbs and 8lbs respectively in hand of their mark and there was only less than a length between them. If they have indeed run their race there is a case for rating the winner 160 with the promise of more to come next season. I’ve backed him already for the Grand National (50/1 and 60/1) and expect him to be campaigned accordingly.
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Noble Endeavor remains my big, big hope (I have more on him in raw and relative terms than on any other National runner in my life) but I'm pleased to have got Step Back onside so early.
 
Maxbet said:
I would argue in favour of anyone who stated "no horse jumped better than Valseur Lido in last years race". Fence to fence he was brilliant, his two Canal turn leaps were breathtaking. If ever a horse enjoyed himself, he did.


Probably far too near the pace for an animal carrying so much weight, but only weakened going to the last, finally finishing 55L behind the more conservatively ridden winner.


Last year he was coming back from injury, this year he has a 21Lb pull with Tiger Roll, better ground, a touch of class, and a campaign designed to bring about a drop down the handicap.


All he needs to find an extra 11Lb is Rachael and the blue hat, if anyone can find me a better 100/1 shot; I'm all ears
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Gets in the race now
 
Double J said:
Who gets the Noble Endeavour ride? Davy was schooling Tiger Roll despite Keith being there.
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I wouldn't worry too much.

Elliott will make sure it's a jockey that can do the job.

I'd also imagine if DR is committed to TR he'll also want to make sure his close pals in the game are aware of NE's chances but I wouldn't be surprised if TR ends up not running...
 
Blacklion: can I swear? Aaaaarrrgggghhhhh but better now than in the race and be catastrophic.
Ms Parfois not going to get her ground- aaarrrrgggghhhhhhhhhhh

Very impressed with Joe Farrell at Newbury, next weekend may be too soon though?
 
Think this is an up to date list of horses who won't be declaring on Monday

Bristol De Mai
Alpha Des Obeaux
The Storyteller
Valtor
Sub Lieutenant
Mala Beach
Blaklion
Shattered Love
Warriors Tale
Magic of Light
Daklondike
Ultragold
Blow by Blow
Abolitionist
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Think this is an up to date list of horses who won't be declaring on Monday

Bristol De Mai
Alpha Des Obeaux
The Storyteller
Valtor
Sub Lieutenant
Mala Beach
Blaklion
Shattered Love
Warriors Tale
Magic of Light
Daklondike
Ultragold
Blow by Blow
Abolitionist
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NJH reported as saying he’s leaning towards the GN with Valtor


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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