2019 Grand National

Ms Parfois to miss the race due to injury, acc to RP site.

Shame for all connected but it's one less for me to back :)
 
I can't get the bet on with them but Ladbrokes odds boosts bring Joe Farrell up to 60/1 (from 50s), 6 Places.

That is a great NRNB price, especially as he's looking increasingly like making the cut.
 
I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
 
swedish chef said:
I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
Click to expand...

I’ve had Vieux Lion Rouge 2 or 3 times now, doesn’t get the trip for me. I’ll be absolutely broken if he wins.
 
I could be wrong but I think that, historically, there aren't many withdrawals between the 5 day confirmations and final decs.

5 against the field for me:
Rock The Kasbah
Noble Endeavor
Step Back
Vintage Clouds
Walk In The Mill
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
Bless The Wings currently runner number 40

5 day decs

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2019-04-06/720537
Click to expand...

Happy enough to see that.

By the way, in terms of repeat winners, I wouldn't be surprised at all if One For Arthur fared better than Tiger Roll. On his way to winning two years ago he got there on a nice curve and I reckoned at the time he had the potential to develop into a Gold Cup runner. As was evident that season, he really only starts running after three miles and he's one of the strongest finishers of a National I recall seeing. If he's within 15 lengths of the lead turning for home there won't be many in front of him at the line, if any (apart from Noble Endeavor, of course :D). He just has to get there fit and healthy to have a shout.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Will copy this across to the longshot thread:

I've just taken 25/1 ew 5pl bog/nrnb Pairofbrowneyes.

It will be officially 9lbs well in on the day and I reckon once people latch on to that it will come in to 10s or less, regardless of how else its chances might shape up.

If it doesn't run, no harm done.
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I've just topped up on this one. Now that I've done the form, I'm of the opinion that the handicapper could have been a lot harsher than he has been, meaning that he could well be much better handicapped than his new OR implies. Should definitely be up among the favourites now as he's proved he's right back in form and arguably some way better than ever. If he jumps and stays it's hard to see him out of the frame.
 
swedish chef said:
I have had another look and done, Pipe's two - Ramses De Taillee 33/1 and Vieux Lion Rouge 50/1 for no other reason than the stable is in hot form at the right time.
Click to expand...

I'm a little surprised to see Tom Scu opting for VLR over RDT.

We know VLR doesn't truly stay but he'll probably complete again and maybe be involved for the extended places but if RDT is the National horse they were claiming him to be I'd have thought Scu would happily have switched. Maybe my earlie suspicion that this time around is all about getting the young horse some experience is what's at play.
 
Horses that finished unplaced in the national one year dont come back and win it another year.i think Mom Mome is the only one.
If they fall,that's different.pleasant company almost did but the year before he made a bad mistake at a crucial time.
So I think if Ramses is going to win it,it will have to be this year.
Vieux lion rouge looks not to stay but having said that nothing was finishing better in the race over the fences earlier in the season.
Forgot the name of the race(age).
Horses that have only run once or twice this season have a poor record and horses after more than 50 days off likewise.
All helps to confuse matters.
My main two are noble endeavour and general principal.
 
Outsider said:
Vieux lion rouge looks not to stay but having said that nothing was finishing better in the race over the fences earlier in the season.
Forgot the name of the race(age).
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That was the Becher (3m2f). Yes, ran on well that day but had previously won over further (at Haydock) before not getting home in the National. Did have wind surgery before that win and maybe that will help.
 
Outsider said:
Horses that finished unplaced in the national one year dont come back and win it another year.i think Mom Mome is the only one.
If they fall,that's different.pleasant company almost did but the year before he made a bad mistake at a crucial time.
Click to expand...

Yes. In another stride PC would have blown that stat out of the water but I largely agree. If they fail due to stamina they're worth opposing.

Outsider said:
So I think if Ramses is going to win it,it will have to be this year.
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But he's only 7yo. They could pull him up half-way round and he wouldn't be 'disqualified' for next year on that statistical approach. Baie Des Iles is a similar case this time around as she was only seven last year but has some very classy form if you look deep enough.


Outsider said:
Horses that have only run once or twice this season have a poor record and horses after more than 50 days off likewise.
All helps to confuse matters.
Click to expand...

The way they train them these days I wouldn't expect those stats to hold for too long.

Outsider said:
My main two are noble endeavour and general principal.
Click to expand...

Both with serious chances in my book but NE has only had two runs this season after missing all of last season. (Doesn't worry me in the least but fails on your stats.)
 
These are the top 10 on my figures (the third-last column) adjusted for this one race. I won't back all of these as there are others in the race that interest me more for other reasons.

[TABLE="width: 732"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Days
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]fut
[/TD]
[TD]MON1
[/TD]
[TD]MON2
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD] Noble Endeavor
[/TD]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-10
[/TD]
[TD]150
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]193
[/TD]
[TD][202]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 29
[/TD]
[TD] Pairofbrowneyes
[/TD]
[TD] 27
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-6
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]+10
[/TD]
[TD]189
[/TD]
[TD]200
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 37
[/TD]
[TD] Livelovelaugh
[/TD]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[TD]198
[/TD]
[TD]??
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 46
[/TD]
[TD] Isleofhopendreams
[/TD]
[TD] 27
[/TD]
[TD]12
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]197
[/TD]
[TD]p?
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 42
[/TD]
[TD] Joe Farrell
[/TD]
[TD] 14
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]+3
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]195
[/TD]
[TD]? p
[/TD]
[TD]180
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 36
[/TD]
[TD] General Principle
[/TD]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-4
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]194
[/TD]
[TD]p
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 40
[/TD]
[TD] Bless The Wings
[/TD]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]14
[/TD]
[TD]10-3
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[TD]194½
[/TD]
[TD]?
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 44
[/TD]
[TD] The Young Master
[/TD]
[TD] 23
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]181
[/TD]
[TD]194
[/TD]
[TD][+5?]
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 45
[/TD]
[TD] Baie Des Iles
[/TD]
[TD] 21
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]10-2
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]181
[/TD]
[TD]194
[/TD]
[TD]++?
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 25
[/TD]
[TD] Tea For Two
[/TD]
[TD] 24
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]10-9
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]184
[/TD]
[TD]193½
[/TD]
[TD]? d?
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
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Bless The Wings is 14yo, absolutely no chance. Not sure it should even be running.

Incidentally what do people think about Gordon having so many runners in the race ?
 
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Bless The Wings wasn't beaten too far last year and is lightly raced. I'm happy to let it take its chance.

No problem with Elliott being mob-handed. Pipe had 10 one year. O'Brien can run 7 in the Derby.
 
Bless The Wings and Captain Redbeard have had their positions as Horses No 40 and 41 reversed, seems officials got the qualification process wrong.
 
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