2019 Grand National

It's strange how the mind works.i cant remember things I should but other things stick in my mind.i see that Ultragold is entered for the topham and the national and it made me think back to Churchtown boy.he won the topham in 1977 and then finished 2nd to Red Rum in the national 2 days later.some achievement that.
 
wilsonl said:
I can't get the bet on with them but Ladbrokes odds boosts bring Joe Farrell up to 60/1 (from 50s), 6 Places.

That is a great NRNB price, especially as he's looking increasingly like making the cut.
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Joe Farrell now 22/1 best. Still needs 2 to drop out. Valtor, Ultragold, Warriors Tale still in the Topham so some possibility there but all 3 their respective trainer’s only runner I think. Outlander and Don Poli up for sale but expecting both will run


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I know someone backed Valseur Lido on here, Blackmore must be a positive. I’m getting more and more excited for this, a really good renewal for me. I won’t be backing him, hope Tiger Roll does it.
 
viking said:
Joe Farrell now 22/1 best. Still needs 2 to drop out. Valtor, Ultragold, Warriors Tale still in the Topham so some possibility there but all 3 their respective trainer’s only runner I think. Outlander and Don Poli up for sale but expecting both will run


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Hugh Taylor has put up Joe Farrell.thats why he has shortened I expect.
 
viking said:
Joe Farrell now 22/1 best. Still needs 2 to drop out. Valtor, Ultragold, Warriors Tale still in the Topham so some possibility there but all 3 their respective trainer’s only runner I think. Outlander and Don Poli up for sale but expecting both will run


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The wife managed to get on at 60s :D but as you say, still no guarantee he gets in. I'm still keener on Rathvinden, Lake View Lad and Tiger but regardless, they were caught sleeping there and it seemed foolish not to take the price, even if with the intention of laying off - which won't be happening.
 
As a matter of interest, is there a pecking order at Elliott's when it comes to picking rides when they have multiple entries?

I imagine Kennedy gets to pick the Gigginstown one first bar, presumably, Russell being allowed to keep the ride on Tiger Roll. Who's next and are they retained by Gigs or the trainer.

What about those owned by others?

Just curious.
 
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Joe Farrell a fancy now Ms P gone, but hope the race at Newbury wasn't too recent, he was flat out at the end and the jockey didn't give him an easy finish.
 
Corals going 4/1 any horse to win this by 10l+. There’s been none in the last 10 years although Auroras Encore went close at 9l in 2013 and there were two in the 5 years previously (Mon Mome and Hedgehunter). Maybe the softening up of the fences in recent years has contributed to closer finishes but maybe worth an interest


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G-G said:
Joe Farrell a fancy now Ms P gone, but hope the race at Newbury wasn't too recent, he was flat out at the end and the jockey didn't give him an easy finish.
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Yes, I've just done my pinsticker's guide for the extended family.

Re JF:

Scottish National winner by a nose from Ballyoptic with Vintage Clouds in third. Needs one to come out to make the cut and connections maybe had to play their hand a little bit early last time out at Newbury as he was in danger of being nowhere near making it but he put up a career best that day and is now 3lbs well in if he makes the cut. The handicapper could easily have raised him more than that. Definite chance.
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Could this be the classiest renewal of the race ever?

The 2016 one was a belter with about 20 horses rated 150 or more with another two rated 160+. That included Many Clouds, going for a Red Rum.

This year, it looks like there will be 23 rated 150+ with two rated 160+.

For those struggling to keep their manhood in their pants when it comes to Tiger Roll, I would urge caution.

When Many Clouds went for his repeat attempt he was only 5lbs higher than when winning and carrying just one pound more. He could do no better than run well to four out and gave up the ghost after that. He went off 8/1f.

I imagine there isn't a racing fan out there who doesn't love Tiger Roll and the Tiger Roll story. Once-a-year TV viewers will remember his thrilling win last year, will read how he's well-handicapped this year and will probably lump on regardless of the price.

But Many Clouds might not have won his first National if The Druids Nephew hadn't slithered to his knees six out. And Tiger Roll might not have won last year if Pleasant Company had taken two out cleanly.

As a 'handicapper', I'm always drawn to ones that are officially well in. But that is no guarantee of success. Two years ago Definitly Red was 10lbs well in but didn't complete. On my ratings he could have been expected to beat One For Arthur. Pairofbrowneyes is 10lbs well in on Saturday. He is a must-bet purely on handicapping grounds and just as Definitly Red was 10/1 on the day, so POBE should be around that price. The current 25/1 is an absolute steal in terms of value. I can see me ending up with almost as much on him as I have on Noble Endeavor. And NE carries more of my cash than I've ever bet on one horse in the race, by miles.
 
Was thinking about this last night. Us, as horse racing fans, as much as we don’t like it, can accept sometimes there are fatalities. Is this years renewal imperative there isn’t any deaths? Was thinking, imagine the outroar if someone like Tiger Roll was to go down. I’m seeing advertisements for national online, absolutely flooded with comments saying how cruel a race and sport it is.

I quite fear for the National, genuinely don’t believe it’ll be a race in a few years.
 
Last year’s race was contested on officially Heavy ground. This year’s race will be run on ground much more suitable for Tiger Roll.

4/1 isn’t any sort of price for a Grand National but that doesn’t diminish his chances. It’s easy to forget he’s only a 9 year old sometimes and he’s more than capable of defying a 9lb rise this year. The way he pulled away from the eventual second last year was impressive and there’s a chance he got lonely up front or took his mind off the job nearing the line.
 
I can't argue with any of that wilsonl but I do think taking the handicap situation into perspective is important. To say TR is a better horse this year therefore he can defy the rise in the handicap, while true in and of itself, for me misses out on the bigger picture, namely that this year there is probably a dozen other runners arguably far better handicapped.

Nobody would deny that Many Clouds went into his second National ostensibly a better horse than the one that won it yet he found others laughing at him.

Take Pairofbrowneyes as one example. He's rated 146. Tiger Roll is rated 159 so he's giving the former 13lbs. The handicapper now says in the light of results since the weights came out that Tiger Roll should be 167 and POBE should be 156 so should only be giving it 11lbs. Leaving aside the whys, buts and wherefores, he's saying POBE should finish in front of TR instead of alongside him, yet one is 4/1 and the other 25/1. That's like getting 6/1 about the result of the toss of a coin.
 
It’s a fair argument mate and there are potentially well handicapped horses lurking in a number of places, although personally I don’t like POBE
 
simmo said:
Had my first trawl through yesterday/today and Jury Duty was the one that leapt off the page for me after his last run.
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I watched that race again the other day. I'm pretty confident Baie Des Iles would have held him. She doesn't look like making the cut, though. Still, no denying the form looks good. The handicapper raised Jury Duty 6lbs for it so he's officially that much well in.

From my family 'pinstickers' guide':

Arrives in form on the back of two wins. The first was in the American Grand National but that’s a hurdles race over 2½ miles or so. Last time out there’s no guarantee he’d have got to Baie Des Iles who was in front and going well when uncharacteristically taking a tumble three out. The mare will be 2lbs better off if she makes the cut and is more than twice the price but Jury Duty went up for that so will be officially 6lbs well in so his chance is obvious.
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