2021 2000 Guineas

Euronymous said:
Mark Prescott is of the opinion that the excessive watering policy of recent times is breeding the ability to act on fast ground out of a large percentage of Thoroughbreds.
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I'm sure he's right. If the form is dodgy when you have good to firm ground then something has gone wrong.

A clerk of the course should aim to produce good ground. However late watering is a disaster as it produces false ground. Noel Murless railed against excessive watering years ago. As he said water makes grass grow up instead of growing down, which it should do.
 
Just working my way through the ORs.

One Ruler 114
Chindit 113
Master Of The Seas 112
Devilwala 111
Naval Crown 111
Mutasaabeq 108

Those are pretty depressing ratings. You'd have to figure Ireland could sweep the board on Saturday. I don't know the official Irish ratings but de-adjusting RPRs from the card puts their entries on:

SMB 119
Thunder M 117
Wembley 117
Lucky Vega 116
Mac Swiney 115

Is any bookie offering odds against a clean sweep?

At 28/1 and 33/1 at the time of writing, I'm seriously thinking of nibbling at Lucky Vega (again, after being very clever and snaffling 18/1 last August...) and Mac Swiney, while at 100/1 Devilwala is clearly going to be overpriced if declared. I'll wait for the final decs, though.
 
I just went to Oddschecker for a quick look and out of all the races covered only Stradivarius and Bangkok rang a bell :confused:

Until the season get going I will be place laying favs in group races and also short priced maidens.

So my bet in this race is laying the fav.

After watching Irish racing the other day and Ryan Moore being unplaced on 3 short priced favs convincing me its the best way to try and make a profit
 
edgt said:
He could have a point.
The Charlie Hills runner out of Ghanaati should bounce off it.
I cannot get my head around the fact that Tactical does not run given he is owned by a 95 year old widow who won the race 63 years ago and will hardly be around in 63 more years, no matter how often they sing her song ..
I have no doubt that if W Haggas trained him the horse would run.
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I'm sure it's not Balding but Warren. Balding must know if Tactical is a better horse than Mystery Smiles. At the moment he seems intent on running the Craven 3rd in the race.

The Balding name seems to be re-established in the Royal tent. Though I think Andrew is a better trainer than his father I have enormous admiration for Ian's courage in standing up to Carnarvon back in 1988. Andrew has 3 Royal 2yos this year so things are going in the right direction.
 
Tanlic said:
After watching Irish racing the other day and Ryan Moore being unplaced on 3 short priced favs convincing me its the best way to try and make a profit
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Opposing AOB horses based on the record with his string first time out in non-Group 1 races is a very bad idea.
 
48 hour decs

Albadri
Battleground
Chindit
Devilwala
Legion of Honour
Lucky Vega
Master of The Seas
Mutasaabeq
Mystery Smiles
Naval Crown
One Ruler
Poetic Flare
Thunder Moon
Van Gogh
Wembley
 
Maxbet said:
The market over the last two days didn't lie though!
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******* A it didn't. I had SMB in nice doubles with a couple of winners and laid him at 12 couple of days ago to ensure no loss. Also managed to get a bit of 34 about Battleground.
 
So the race splits into two with Devilwala taking them along on the inside. Master Of The Seas, Lucky Vega, Poetic Flare, Wembley, and Legion Of Honour in toe, Albadri struggling to go the pace.


Naval Crown heads over to the nearside rail. Battleground, Mystery Smiles head off in pursuit, Thunder Moon and Mutasaabeq took in behind them. One Ruler Cuts across pulling hard as he is jockeying for position, Van Gogh and Chindit held up.

Kirby under instruction to make it a real good clip.....which group will come under pressure first?
 
Desert Orchid said:
according to the RP, Moore confirmed for Wembley, Dettori on Battleground. Not unhappy...
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Albadri Hollie Doyle
Battleground Frankie Dettori
Chindit Pat Dobbs
Devilwala Rossa Ryan
Legion Of Honour David Egan
Lucky Vega Shane Foley
Master Of The Seas William Buick
Mutasaabeq Jim Crowley
Mystery Smiles Silvestre de Sousa
Naval Crown Adam Kirby
One Ruler James Doyle
Poetic Flare Kevin Manning
Thunder Moon Declan McDonogh
Van Gogh TBC
Wembley Ryan Moore
 
Will Battleground be ready? Can't help feeling this wasn't the original plan and can see a Mastercraftsman/Rip Van Winkle type of run.
 
Like Master Of The Seas here, will be having an E.W on Lucky Vega as well, he's been crying out for the Mile and is overpriced
 
Truncheon said:
Like Master Of The Seas here, will be having an E.W on Lucky Vega as well, he's been crying out for the Mile and is overpriced
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Timeform reckon Lucky Vega's physique is that of a sprinter. They say they can see him being tried over seven furlongs again (after the Middle Park).

I imagine a horse's physique can change, though, just like a human's. When I was younger I had a physique like Johnny Weissmuller, now it's more like Johnny Vegas.
 
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I reckon it’s a pure guessing game when only one of the five major players has put in an appearance this season. Overall there are four are locked together on time figures (racing post) - CHINDIT, MASTER OF THE SEAS, MUTASAABEQ and VAN GOGH. Of these only MUTASAABEQ has achieved it this season. His race at Newmarket was virtually a one horse time trial, but it was very fast (the highest time figure of the meeting) and it was an exceptionally fast final furlong.

So, with no idea as to whether last years big guns have trained on or not other than words from the yards, I am left to try and value those who have run this season. The best on time has got to be MUTASAABEQ by a street, so I must go with him despite his lack of experience in a proper race and despite that the principals from last year may have trained on and improved enormously. Only MUTASAABEQ has actually shown it.
 
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barjon said:
I reckon it’s a pure guessing game when only one of the five major players has put in an appearance this season. Overall there are four are locked together on time figures (racing post) - CHINDIT, MASTER OF THE SEAS, MUTASAABEQ and VAN GOGH. Of these only MUTASAABEQ has achieved it this season. His race at Newmarket was virtually a one horse time trial, but it was very fast (the highest time figure of the meeting) and it was an exceptionally fast final furlong.

So, with no idea as to whether last years big guns have trained on or not other than words from the yards, I am left to try and value those who have run this season. The best on time has got to be MUTASAABEQ by a street, so I must go with him despite his lack of experience in a proper race and despite that the principals from last year may have trained on and improved enormously. Only MUTASAABEQ has actually shown it.
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Given the fast overall time and final split, wouldn't you worry about the bounce?
 
Well, he just ran down the course without being given a hard time so he shouldn’t have any bad memories to trouble him. I can’t actually believe that all last season’s big guns will be found wanting, I just don’t like being made to guess what they are like this season rather than seeing something for myself. So I’ll go with what I’ve seen - and that was pretty good.
 
I don't attribute the bounce to bad memories (I'm more inclined to worry about an obviously tough race for that). It's a physical thing, apparently thought by exponents of the theory to do with lactic acid.

I don't think, either, that a horse needs to be seen to have had a hard race for it to have one. The problem with the bounce is that we never know for sure until it actually runs.

One I was thinking about earlier this week (with the Newmarket card on my mind) was the performance of Desert Icon here last June. It appeared to win without having a hard race but never subsequently looked like repeating it. I do wonder if it remembered those exertions.

I still fancy the Irish for a clean sweep of the placings.
 
barjon said:
I reckon it’s a pure guessing game when only one of the five major players has put in an appearance this season. Overall there are four are locked together on time figures (racing post) - CHINDIT, MASTER OF THE SEAS, MUTASAABEQ and VAN GOGH. Of these only MUTASAABEQ has achieved it this season. His race at Newmarket was virtually a one horse time trial, but it was very fast (the highest time figure of the meeting) and it was an exceptionally fast final furlong.

So, with no idea as to whether last years big guns have trained on or not other than words from the yards, I am left to try and value those who have run this season. The best on time has got to be MUTASAABEQ by a street, so I must go with him despite his lack of experience in a proper race and despite that the principals from last year may have trained on and improved enormously. Only MUTASAABEQ has actually shown it.
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Has he though? He won a 4 runner trial where there is a massive rail bias. The O'Brien horse in the race is entered in a Group 3 on Monday. You don't need a run to win a Guineas. I think Battleground and Wembley will fight it out.
 
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