A library of horses to lay

Colin Phillips said:
Just skimmed the fields and I have come up with two, both trained by A.P.O'Brien!!!

In the first at Ascot MAYBE is a beautiful-bred winner on debut at Naas on good to firm ground.

Has a good chance of being suited by the soft ground but the change in going and the strength of the opposition suggests that 2/1 is too short.

In the next at Ascot O'Brien again has the favourite in AWAIT THE DAWN. This one did win as a 2-y-o on soft at Naas. Forecast at 4/6 and it seems that this is too good a field for any horse to be odds-on and at that sort of price I would be against him.
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If Maybe had been a bit shorter i was going to lay it..i'm not a fan of 2yo Galileo's on slow ground.

4/6 is very short on ATD for sure
 
9.00 Chepstow

Bakoura isn't an even money shot here...anyone of the 4 can win on the ratings and last win was on fast ground..never run on slow..which is odd in this country:)

a nice even money lay ;)
 
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Dorset Square in the 17:50 at Ballinrobe tonight. These 47-65 1 mile 6 furlong handicaps in Ireland are probably the toughest races in the world to win. Anyone backing horses in these races (even yokes with stones in hand) at prices of less that 4/1 will go broke and quickly. This has to be a lay at 11/10.

You have the following running for you.
Previously very average flat form, change in ground, fifteen others who could easily beat him on their day and a track that you need a serious amount of luck at. Cannot have him at all.
 
this one is worth a go..not vastly confident but at 1.59 its worth it

Mr Greeley's 3yo don't have a great strike rate generally and don't relish stiff tracks either..would also prefer fast to slow

none of that to a massive degree..but a few degrees of small negs sometimes better than one biggie


8.00 Striking The Wind 1.59
 
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Interesting stuff as always, EC1. You seem to be putting a lot of stock into sire performance stats. Where exactly are you coming across stats such as that Mr. Greeley's don't generally go well on stiff tracks?
 
This 8.30 fav Doc Hay is interesting

K Dalgleish has 11 winners..two jockeys have ridden winners for him..Joe Fanning 7/16...P Mulrennan 4/13

Fanning stats are amazing with very nice lsp

Fanning has won twice on Doc Hay..but tonight McDonald rides it who also got beat last time on it when fav

i'm going to try a small lay on at 2.2...then watch for Joe getting back on next time

i'm surely heading for a fall with this one :)
 
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one more

9.10 Hurricane lady 2.62

no surprise won last time on slow ground..HR's are better on that surface..tonight is a whole different ball game
 
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