Colin Phillips
At the Start
"The sire's progeny disappoint when short odds as well.."
How do they know?
How do they know?
A library of horses to lay
- Thread starter EC1
- Start date
EC1
On a break
"The sire's progeny disappoint when short odds as well.."
How do they know?
they don't need to
it shows a level of unreliability
i'll just also add..hung on fast ground..will be even faster at Bath
EC1
On a break
unreliable 
..and unplaced
8.25 Goodwood ..........Rougette - 1.83
plenty of oppo again here..nothing special on pedigree whereas some of the oppo look a lot better..Brinmore has got better form and has only had one run..Red Ransom's kids arehaving a bad time nowadays..just 3 wins from last 50 runners..1 win in last 36
enough there to make this a very poor value fav
..and unplaced8.25 Goodwood ..........Rougette - 1.83
plenty of oppo again here..nothing special on pedigree whereas some of the oppo look a lot better..Brinmore has got better form and has only had one run..Red Ransom's kids arehaving a bad time nowadays..just 3 wins from last 50 runners..1 win in last 36
enough there to make this a very poor value fav
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EC1
On a break
6.30 Pontefract..Majestic Zafeen ...2.16
the sire isn't great with 2yo and they aren't well suited to stiff tracks either
the sire isn't great with 2yo and they aren't well suited to stiff tracks either
EC1
On a break
8.00 Watercourse...2.54
is up against horses that were better thought of at the maiden race stage..doen't look well handicapped..and may prefer easier going
is up against horses that were better thought of at the maiden race stage..doen't look well handicapped..and may prefer easier going
Colin Phillips
At the Start
".............the sire isn't great with 2yo and they aren't well suited to stiff tracks either........."
How do you find and store this information EC1, the first part not to difficult to find out but how much work is involved in unearthing the "stiff track" bit?
How do you find and store this information EC1, the first part not to difficult to find out but how much work is involved in unearthing the "stiff track" bit?
EC1
On a break
a nice cold one is the order of the day now..job done
On The Bridle
At the Start
EC1
On a break
7-55 Yvonne Evelyn...2.45
looks tripless and has been outpaced over a longer distance on slower ground..so unlikely to find this shorter trip on faster ground suitable..probably 4 opponents here of which any could win.
looks tripless and has been outpaced over a longer distance on slower ground..so unlikely to find this shorter trip on faster ground suitable..probably 4 opponents here of which any could win.
On The Bridle
At the Start
7:50 Clonmel - one of Luke's friends Wikaala is 15/8 & drifting to 3.3 on betfair. Should again manage to find one to two too good for it tonight.
EC1
On a break
7.50 Hay - Nahrain - 4/7... not a massive lay but there is evidence in the sire stats that Haydock won't suit as well as Windsor did for this one..at the short odds i'll take it on
EC1
On a break
lbs in hand..would have won on the moon ner mind Haydock
EC1
On a break
main lay tonight for me runs in the 8.50..May be some time...6/4
Firebreaks are very very poor on slow ground..had to be dropped to class 6 to gain win..now up to class 5
Firebreaks are very very poor on slow ground..had to be dropped to class 6 to gain win..now up to class 5
EC1
On a break
main lay i've spotted up to press today..2.00 Salisbury..Nibani..2.64
Dalakhani is a very poor strike rate with horses above 3yo..5/80 with an expectency of wins half of what it should be. His last 50 older runners have netted just 1 win with an expectency of a fifth of what they should be.
Nibani is very poor value at the price
Dalakhani is a very poor strike rate with horses above 3yo..5/80 with an expectency of wins half of what it should be. His last 50 older runners have netted just 1 win with an expectency of a fifth of what they should be.
Nibani is very poor value at the price
EC1
On a break
now drifting like a barge
EC1
On a break
6.40 Night Angel
I earmarked this one last night..and groaned when i read the RP Trading post had also recommended a lay for it..i didn't read too much of his reasoning but the negatives i have are
Sire isn't great on undulating tracks or on the going..the bad news is its now drifting to 2.58..was really wanting it below 6/4
I earmarked this one last night..and groaned when i read the RP Trading post had also recommended a lay for it..i didn't read too much of his reasoning but the negatives i have are
Sire isn't great on undulating tracks or on the going..the bad news is its now drifting to 2.58..was really wanting it below 6/4
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Apache gave Joseph O'Brien a torrid time in the last race at Ascot today. He never looked like settling.
Two miles at Towcester should sort that out.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Laying Green Destiny in the Wolferton. He went up 12lbs for his last win, this is over further and it looks stamina sapping out there. 2.84 is daft.
EC1
On a break
good call Euro
6.40 Ayr - Sole Dancer 2.06
The ground has gone slow at Ayr and out of the first 5 in the betting this one is probably the worst bred to handle it. Just finished in front of mid 70's ibsaar on it last time..and the betting for that event suggested better was expected.
6.40 Ayr - Sole Dancer 2.06
The ground has gone slow at Ayr and out of the first 5 in the betting this one is probably the worst bred to handle it. Just finished in front of mid 70's ibsaar on it last time..and the betting for that event suggested better was expected.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Sorry EC, this thread had slipped my mind.
Guilty of after-timing here but only to say that I found three yesterday.
I'm going to have a look at today, now.
Guilty of after-timing here but only to say that I found three yesterday.
I'm going to have a look at today, now.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Just skimmed the fields and I have come up with two, both trained by A.P.O'Brien!!!
In the first at Ascot MAYBE is a beautiful-bred winner on debut at Naas on good to firm ground.
Has a good chance of being suited by the soft ground but the change in going and the strength of the opposition suggests that 2/1 is too short.
In the next at Ascot O'Brien again has the favourite in AWAIT THE DAWN. This one did win as a 2-y-o on soft at Naas. Forecast at 4/6 and it seems that this is too good a field for any horse to be odds-on and at that sort of price I would be against him.
In the first at Ascot MAYBE is a beautiful-bred winner on debut at Naas on good to firm ground.
Has a good chance of being suited by the soft ground but the change in going and the strength of the opposition suggests that 2/1 is too short.
In the next at Ascot O'Brien again has the favourite in AWAIT THE DAWN. This one did win as a 2-y-o on soft at Naas. Forecast at 4/6 and it seems that this is too good a field for any horse to be odds-on and at that sort of price I would be against him.