Aintree

I guess it comes down to:

1. Is Aintree a much stiffer test than the Bula course? Not really
2. Will the ground help Grandouet re point number 1? Yes
3. Is he a fresh horse? Yes
4. Did he look to be travelling best in the CH? Yes (though this would not mean he would have won)
5. Is Geraghty choosing him a positive? Yes
6. Aside from The New One (who starts off a lower base anyway), he looks the least exposed of the Zarkander-OW-CF group (i.e. - older hurdlers)

I think 9/2 is a cracking bet.
 
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sprinter, flemenstar, cue card, finians rainbow, for non stop & mad moose make up the melling field
 
As good as the New One looks he should not be fav for this IMO.he's a novice talking on proper champion hurdle contenders something Nicky Henderson thought MTOY was incapable of doing.

No harm in having a go but wouldn't be my idea of the winner.

Absolutely no surprise Barry chosing Grandouet over Oscar Whisky. The latter was a complete flop at Cheltenham despite working well beforehand and they can't be sure he will prove any different here.

That aside even at 100% he wouldn't be good enough to come close to actually winning a Champion Hurdle whereas they still believe Grandouet would.

Thousand Stars hasn't won many races but that's mainly down to him training on the race course behind Hurricane Fly. He's bound to be ready to run another big race in this and he trounced Rock On Ruby and Zarkandar when beaten a neck last year. I could see him finishing well in front of Oscar Whisky this time and reckon he's a big danger to all.

Like stable companion SS Grandouet has an amazingly high cruising speed and uses very little energy travelling through his races. Getting him at it will take some doing round here and I don't see the trip posing any sort of problem. I've been backing him since the betting came out which is unlikely to surprise anyone as I fancied him very strongly to win the Champion Hurdle. Despite his setback NH fancied the backside off him at the Festival and this is nowhere near as good a race. Can't see him losing trip or no trip.

Zarkandar will no doubt run his usual good race but I can't have him at all. Aintree takes some getting because of the pace they tend to go at but that may not be enough for stamina to win the day. Too many fast horses in the race that might find him out. He simply doesn't have enough toe for my liking and his constant habit of losing ground when the pace suddenly quickens worries me.

Countryside Flame ran a blinder at Cheltenham but is still that few pound short of top class/Hurricane Fly. He will absolutely love the ground if it stays good with a little bit of cut in it and could go very close here but more likely to be placed than win.

1. Grandouet (Nap)
2. Coutryside Flame
3. Thousand Stars

Rolling Stars will be very hard to beat in the first as will Silviniaco Conti in the 2nd

I prefer Tanks for That to Kid Cassidy as the former was said to be coming right before Cheltenham and on better ground should run well. However I doubt if either will beat Ruby on Rebel Rebellion who looked like a really good horse at Sandown. I reckon he's got a big future with PN and can win this.

Not too keen on Captain Conan or Fago sowill go with Changing Times for the novice chase.

Buthelezi won a dog race last time out but did it very easily. With only 11 stone less Jack Quinlan claiming 3lbs he could be be very well in. His run in Ireland should be forgotten as he didn't travel well.
 
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JamesRB said:
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Post of the year James :lol:
 
Hamm said:
I guess it comes down to:

1. Is Aintree a much stiffer test than the Bula course? Not really
2. Will the ground help Grandouet re point number 1? Yes
3. Is he a fresh horse? Yes
4. Did he look to be travelling best in the CH? Yes (though this would not mean he would have won)
5. Is Geraghty choosing him a positive? Yes
6. Aside from The New One (who starts off a lower base anyway), he looks the least exposed of the Zarkander-OW-CF group (i.e. - older hurdlers)

I think 9/2 is a cracking bet.
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It is an inherently stiffer test if you are going in against top-class 2m4f horses and you have never proven your stamina over the trip.

Ground won't make a difference - if you don't stay, you don't stay.

Grandouet is only "less exposed" because he hasn't tried the trip. Otherwise he's an open book and on a par class-wise with those you mention.

A fresh horse.....coming back from a fall last time out, lest we forget

Travling well means little if you're a confirmed bridle faggot.

Geraghty may not have had a choice.

Bar, rest-assured, I will take it on the chin if the opposition fall or are shot from the stands by a sniper mid-race. :cool:
 
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I'm coming round to Thousand Stars. Second the last two runnings of this he missed the Festival this time around and that might be the angle that makes him a solid each way prop at 10s. I'm putting him in an each way double with First Lieutenant. The price differential between that horse and Silviniaco Conti is excessive as lines of form through Bob's Worth and Long Run suggest there isn't a whole lot between them. FL ran on really well in the Ryanair but just didn't have the speed of Cue Card and made a couple of glaring errors to boot. Three miles on a flat track on decent ground could well be the conditions that see him win a Grade 1.
 
isn't auteil soft pretty deep ground? he won french champion hurdles on it.

i agree he's an interesting player on his past 2 runs at aintree and probably a fair e/w shout. that last run would niggle at me though. as it would with oscar whisky.
 
I can't remember a time when I didn't have doubt a about Thousand Stars winning a race. He runs 10th of 16 or 3rd of 4 beaten out of sight then suddenly he turns up and wins or runs like a champion. WM simply trains him on the racecourse with targets in mind and very seldom if ever fails to have him spot on when he wants him to be. He knows what time of year he is at his best and that is round about now.

So unless the horse has gone completely gone I don't see this being any different to previous attempts.

That said I was surprised to see him so big in the betting so it might be the unusually prolonged winter weather has delayed him peaking and word has filtered through to the bookies.

Like always with WM it's a bit of a guessing game.
 
Tanlic said:
That said I was surprised to see him so big in the betting
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Because he missed Cheltenham for once he's gone under the radar. Plus it's a big field with plenty of high profile animals. I have to think his relative freshness compared to the likes of a novice who has had three tough runs since the turn of the year (two on really soft ground) and a 5yo who seems to have been on the go for well over 12 months has to be a big positive.
 
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Betfred/Totesport are 1/4 odds 1,2,3 in the Betfred Bowl. I can't help myself backing Wayward Prince e/w @ 66/1 given how good the place part of the bet is. I've stuck it in two horrifically bad e/w Lucky 15's too.
 
Silviniaco Conti will probably win, but First Lieutenent is such a good e/w bet tomorrow. Lovely horse, deserves a big prize.
 
The race is often a graveyard for horses who ran well at Cheltenham. I'll be looking at the outers (confess I haven't seen decs yet).
 
Agreed but this race looks tailored made for Silviniaco Conti - If ever a horse and race were a perfect match then this is it IMO.

Remember before the Gold Cup everybody was questioning whether he was a flat track bully over a trip slightly short of 3m 2f ?.

If Billy's offer their 'money back as free bet if 2nd promotion' on all C4 races then I'll be betting him to their max at around evens and so will my wife, daughter et al
 
With grandouet, Im completely baffled as to how anyone can state that a horse that fell 3 out at cheltenham of all places could have done this that or other at the finish. is this fcking mystic meg or something? How many times have we seen something going well even half a furlong out and then blow up?

I also think the tight course will play to The new Ones strengths. Can certainly pick up cant he? Thats a doubt for Zarkander IMO even though he looks like hes crying out for this distance
 
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My comment about G handing it to HF was more aimed at pulling Grassy's leg than anything else.

However, he was certainly travelling well, would have almost certainly gone close, and I still rate him a very decent bet tomorrow.
 
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