Aintree

Euronymous said:
Why the :lol:?

I'm not claiming for a minute that he is inferior to Menorah.

He ran below form in this last year and is likely to this year as well given his lack of freshness and faster ground than he likes.
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Given the way he was ridden, he ran as well as could be expected last year. May have been 4/5lb below his previous best, but that (in conjunction with his being "the most overrated chaser in training") would put his performance about 145/150 - and you ask to be taken seriously? :lol:
 
reet hard said:
Given the way he was ridden, he ran as well as could be expected last year. May have been 4/5lb below his previous best, but that (in conjunction with his being "the most overrated chaser in training") would put his performance about 145/150 - and you ask to be taken seriously? :lol:
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He's rated about 175 but is in truth at least half a stone inferior to that mark. So if he ran 4/5 lbs below his best in the race last season that would make a figure of around 162 - which seems consistant with the sort of mark Menorah can run to at his best.

The :lol: and the remark about being taken seriously is not needed and makes you look a pr1ck.
 
Last year, SC went into Aintree on the back of a fall in the Gold Cup, and quite an attritional race on deep ground at Newbury. It's not altogether surprising that he didn't 'run to form' at Aintree - certainly excusable (to a degree, anyway) in hindsight.

It's a different ball-game this time around, and SC commands plenty of respect - especially given he's suited by a sharp, flat track, and is generally a handy jumper (Mildmay probably takes more jumping than the Nash course these days).

I can't have it that Dynaste is the better animal over this trip, and for all that he's touted as a spring-horse, First Lieutenant has been bitterly disappointing, and therefore hard to be encouraged by.

All things considered, I think 9/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a good bet.*

*Please note that my record in this race is absolutely fu*cking dreadful. :D
 
Grasshopper said:
It's a different ball-game this time around, and SC commands plenty of respect - especially given he's suited by a sharp, flat track, and is generally a handy jumper (Mildmay probably takes more jumping than the Nash course these days).

I can't have it that Dynaste is the better animal over this trip, and for all that he's touted as a spring-horse, First Lieutenant has been bitterly disappointing, and therefore hard to be encouraged by.

All things considered, I think 9/4 about Silviniaco Conti is a good bet.*
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SC had a harder race this time around at the Festival. At least his price has drifted to a more realistic one

Had FL been that disappointing really? He ran a good race in the Lexus, the ground went against him in the Hennessy and I doubt Mouse even bothers getting him that ready for his early season races given how he targets the Lexus and the spring races with him.
He has almost exactly the same MO as last year with just missing Cheltenham the only big difference.
 
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I'm not convinced by the form of the Lexus, euro - so FL remains in the disappointing category. To me, he's not looked the same horse this season. I can't quite put my finger on it, but he just doesn't seem to travel with the same zest - to my eyes at least. There's an indefinable something else that niggles me too; just an overall feel that he isn't quite right. It's essentially the rumbling of my belly that puts me off, as he can be given a chance on certain formlines - I just can;t see him running up to that form, based on what I've seen so far this season.

Has he really been left under-cooked? It might explain the below-par (lethargic?) performances to date..........but he might not necessarily be under-cooked on purpose, if you see what I mean.
 
The form of the Lexus doesn't read A1 but they went a crawl so the distances were never gonna be excessive.

You might be right ultimately but looking through my records it turns out that I've backed FL more times than any other horse in my twenty five years punting so I may have a blind spot with him.
 
Euronymous said:
You might be right ultimately but looking through my records it turns out that I've backed FL more times than any other horse in my twenty five years punting so I may have a blind spot with him.
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I'll be backing him at Aintree. Been trained all year for this race, none of the others will have been.
 
Roddy, just let me know once you have plans finalised. I owe you a drink or three for all the winners you have produced :D
 
Euro
Lighten up, ffs.
I found it amusing you claimed him the most overrated chaser in training, shortly after deeming him below form. Maybe you don't see the contradiction; it tickled me, is all, and if looking a prick is the price of a sense of humour, then put me down for some more.
 
reet hard said:
Euro
Lighten up, ffs.
I found it amusing you claimed him the most overrated chaser in training, shortly after deeming him below form.
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I don't see how it's a contradiction given how high some raters have him. If he's a 168 animal he did run below form in the race last season.
 
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Tricky race the bowl. FL is my selection, but will there be pace in the race. Dynaste would surely be the one to benefit if not.
 
I think it's quite a tidy card.

The novice events might lack a challenge from the very top-end, but if the races don't cut-up too badly, they otherwise look pretty competitive. Ditto for the handicaps. I don't think it's any better or worse an undercard than we usually get at Aintree.

The worst race of the meeting is the Melling, though. It's desperate.
 
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problem with fl is his wins to run ratio isn't what it should be.i think theres an element of truth to his trainer cherry picking his races, as he isn't good enough to win them all, but last seasons 2nd to cue card followed by winning this is far better form than he's achieved this year, he's a hard one to way up he could win or finish last neither would surprise me. im not entirely convinced by silvy either, did he walk past an injured cue card in the kg ? he emptied in the gold cup and his win in the novice chase here was against a non staying champion court. i think you can easily pick holes in the lot of them but dynaste has less holes than the rest and hes the only one improving.
 
Imo its between the two, Dynaste & FL and it will come down to, who wants it more on the day... SC to pull up.
 
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tiggers1972 said:
Surely Conti will make it? Only chance he has got, if there is no pace he'll get done for toe.
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Well possibly but not a given. FL wants a test aswell so that would suit him also. Dynaste won't mind either way. Intriguing to see how it pans out. FL is fresh and I think will run very well, especially on better ground. Though rain is lurking apparently which would obviously help Conti.
Certainly not a race I have massive confidence in.
 
the bowl has been a graveyard for favourites in recent years. i'd oppose both SC & Dynaste but who else is there? I guess you'd have to go for FL but i don't really like the horse and can't imagine euro has turned a profit following him off a cliff. so few chase wins for a horse that's rated quite highly. i guess what you could point to is him winning this last year and also running a solid race at punchestown. maybe he is just a spring horse. i just can't bring myself to back him however.

no bet race for me.
 
the juvenile hurdle looks interesting. the triumph was a totally unacceptable race for me, tiger roll did it well enough, but surely calipto would have had a say, he was travelling just as well as the winner and he stays well so no idea if he would have won or not but he would have gone close. the 2nd and 3rd are very exposed and le rocher holds most of them on form and he didnt turn up. it might pay to look away from the obvious here depending on who turns up. i think aurore'destruval could be interesting, and probably at a price too. he should have won the haydock race he cantered all over the winner with the fred winter winner way back. and i reckon he will appreciate the better ground just as well as hawk high and the way he travels i think a sharp track will help too. i reckon the fred winter could be as good as the triumph this year katgary, clarcam and hawk high all interesting going forward.
 
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