Aintree

Given Nicholls comments on his campaigning of Conti, I cant have him. Was only out for a spin prior to the KG. After running up to his best in the KG he was put away for the GC. Hard to think he'll be fresh enough to put up anything like his best this week. Seems to me like they're rolling the dice. Wouldn't be a shock to me if he was PU as Anadin suggests.
 
istabraqfromneigh said:
problem with fl is his wins to run ratio isn't what it should be.i think theres an element of truth to his trainer cherry picking his races, as he isn't good enough to win them all, but last seasons 2nd to cue card followed by winning this is far better form than he's achieved this year, he's a hard one to way up he could win or finish last neither would surprise me. im not entirely convinced by silvy either, did he walk past an injured cue card in the kg ? he emptied in the gold cup and his win in the novice chase here was against a non staying champion court. i think you can easily pick holes in the lot of them but dynaste has less holes than the rest and hes the only one improving.
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Can't have it that Dynaste is the only one improving. SC ran the race of his life in the KG, and the ground and sprint finish were both against him in the GC subsequently. As his trainer remarked, after Kempton: He is only a young horse and has taken a bit of time to mature. Horses like him that are slow get better as they get older because they get stronger.
Looks unlikely to get his ground and the sharp track wouldn't be ideal either, but he'll likely set a stern pace, which would see off Dynaste at the very least.
 
The Bowls an interesting race but probably one best off watched at the prices. Can't have SC just had a really tough race and given the first 3 home in the GC and time compared to the Foxhunters it wasn't even a high quality renewal.

First Loo is obviously a spring horse but given his win rate as of late and the fact he ran some shockers this year he's not an inviting price. He has been kept for this which is a plus.

Dynaste is a strange one, the Ryanair wasn't a great renewal but the horse did run a good race here last year after losing at Cheltenham. If you forget the King George he is a worthy favourite but I wouldn't be going mad at 2s


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sorry, but cant have silvy, did he really run such a fantastic kg ? cue card was hosing in untill something went wrong and dynaste clearly didnt run his race. i think sc 's rating is vastly inflated and his overall level of form is not going to be hard for dynaste to overcome. i think he will be better for a fast 3m on a sharp track and good ground, he's such a fluid mover and jumper as long as he is 100% he will win.
 
All that went wrong with Cue Card is he got outstayed, and even if you don't accept that, Al Ferof was a deal further behind SC than he was Dynaste, subsequently.
SC was rated 177 by the OH for that performance, 179 by RPR: figures that Dynaste has never got near.
 
cue card won a similar test at haydock staying well, so i cant see how he went out like that, plus he hasn't been seen since, and dynaste broke blood vessel al ferof is not a reliable yardstick so totally dubious form when you take in to account he hasn't got near that ' form ' before it or after it.
 
istabraqfromneigh said:
cue card won a similar test at haydock staying well, so i cant see how he went out like that, plus he hasn't been seen since, and dynaste broke blood vessel al ferof is not a reliable yardstick so totally dubious form when you take in to account he hasn't got near that ' form ' before it or after it.
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If nothing else, the simple fact that Cue Card was going forward in the Haydock race, yet backward in all 3 other attempts at beyond 21f, should tell all about how 'similar' a test it was.
 
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well thats another argument, but both were 3m soft ground g1 chase same horses.......

for me the 3m division has been suspect all year, with any manor of strange results. they are obviously not a vintage crop, or in the case of bobs worth just hard to train this year for some reason, they all seem ground dependent and each of the main protagonists has seemed to perform well when everything is in their favour, yet not having the class to battle to victory when it is not. the exception for me is dynaste, who has had valid excuses when beaten.
 
If you can open a new Skybet account they are offering 2/1 on TNO in tomorrows race, with upto £30 at the price and a £30 matched bet.
 
I've been waiting a fortnight for the market but surely a candidate for worst price ever tomorrow.

Mossey Joe best priced 13/8 on the Nash course.

I think he'll win comfortably with a clear round but 13/8 :blink:
 
shocking price for a horse with no experience of the fences. i prefer warne but even hes a short price really, there must be some e/w value somewhere.
 
Some decent prices about tomorrow.

Fox Norton is an each way price at 15/2.

Trip and ground will suit Fox Appeal in the Manifesto and 10/1 is a bit of an insult.
 
Interesting that Grandouet's attempt at the longer trip tomorrow was at Geraghty's suggestion. He knows the horse well and I'm wondering what his record is like at suggesting certain trips for those he's ridden.
 
Euronymous said:
Some decent prices about tomorrow.

Fox Norton is an each way price at 15/2.

Trip and ground will suit Fox Appeal in the Manifesto and 10/1 is a bit of an insult.
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Guitar Pete for me
Winter form looks rock solid
 
Desert Orchid said:
Interesting that Grandouet's attempt at the longer trip tomorrow was at Geraghty's suggestion. He knows the horse well and I'm wondering what his record is like at suggesting certain trips for those he's ridden.
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Nicky admitted they're lost with him and want to see if he stays 2m4 with a view to novice chasing again next season.

I could answer that...
 
Claret Cloak ought to win the Red Rum, provided the ground continues to dry. Would take on Dynaste because I don't believe he'll stay, and The New One because he might not be quick enough.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Interesting that Grandouet's attempt at the longer trip tomorrow was at Geraghty's suggestion. He knows the horse well and I'm wondering what his record is like at suggesting certain trips for those he's ridden.
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Did you see last season's Aintree Hurdle, DO? Grandouet was a total non-stayer. OK, with another year on his back he might just get home, but he is behind TNO (and I'd say ROR) in class terms anyway, and I'm at a complete loss as to how you (or anyone) can think he is better hurdler than TNO, MTOY and/or Jezki, especially given he's still to win an all-aged Grade1 hurdle.
 
'Morning.
Anyone know if there was overnight rain in the Liverpool area ?
What will the Going be like on the the Mildmay course?
 
icebreaker said:
'Morning.
Anyone know if there was overnight rain in the Liverpool area ?
What will the Going be like on the the Mildmay course?
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From the BHA site:

Weather
1mm in last 24 hours
Thursday - cloudy am, with a band of rain thro' late afternoon
5mm 15C.
Friday - damp morning with light rain, bright and sunny
periods thro' afternoon 15C.
Saturday - cloudy with some bright spells, showers thro' day 15C
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Grasshopper said:
Did you see last season's Aintree Hurdle, DO? Grandouet was a total non-stayer. OK, with another year on his back he might just get home, but he is behind TNO (and I'd say ROR) in class terms anyway, and I'm at a complete loss as to how you (or anyone) can think he is better hurdler than TNO, MTOY and/or Jezki, especially given he's still to win an all-aged Grade1 hurdle.
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I'm used to farting against thunder, Grasshopper.

The New One might well win this quite easily but I wouldn’t want to be backing him at even the best price of 2/5. I’ve rated him as dead-heating for second in the Champion and he clearly does have a finishing kick that the others might not possess. On the other hand, I think it was a substandard race and the best form of both Rock On Ruby (10/1) and Grandouet (over shorter) is, I reckon, a touch better. Grandouet (16/1) looked a non-stayer in this race last season but I’m curious that Henderson says Geraghty is the one who suggested he might now need a trip. As far as he and Rock On Ruby are concerned, I also just wonder if their connections are taking the same view on the possible vulnerability of The New One. Henderson, after all, does train My Tent Or Yours. I might back both Grandouet and Rock On Ruby at these prices.
 
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