Ante-Post - Flat 2016

gus said:
Some firms have priced up the Dewhurst. Caravaggio is clear favourite, predictably, from Churchill and it's 16/1 bar the two. They're unlikely both to run so Boynton at 16/1 looks decent value. His performance at Newmarket last week stands up in form and time terms. In fact, his form looks some way better than Churchill's Chesham form on not very complicated lines involving Cunco and Mr Scaramanga. It was only his second run so he's likely to have improvement to come and it's an obvious race to target with him. Yes, it's Godolphin and the Emotionless flop is fresh in the memory but the price looks huge to me. Caravaggio looks very good, of course, but I'm not convinced he's quite the superstar that some are suggesting.

I've had a few quid on, anyway.
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I have topped up my bet on Boynton for the Dewhurst.

Caravaggio looks far from certain to go for the race and Churchill is now disputing favouritism with him. As I've said before straightforward form lines put the Superlative form clearly ahead of that of the Chesham.


War Decree turned the tables on Boynton at Goodwood but Boynton, who was conceding 3lbs, didn't get the run of the race and seemed unsuited by the turning track. He wasn't beaten that far in any event. There clearly isn't much between the two and I'd certainly be more frightened of War Decree in the Dewhurst than Churchill but one of them will probably go to France and the betting at the moment suggests it may well be War Decree who does.


Appleby's comments in today's Post strongly suggest that Boynton is to be aimed at the Dewhurst and, given that the race often cuts up and is contested by a single-figure field, he looks excellent each-way value at the 16/1 still available.
 
fonz said:
A trip short of his best no doubt about that but he's no arc winner if he can't even win a Royal Whip.
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Fonz I would agree with the point you're making but I honestly don't think he was off a yard after etching the replay.

I think there's a stone of improvement on what he has done today. That might get him close.
 
As well as Banksea mentioned elsewhere for the Cambs' I've also taken 20s about Intisaab for the Ayr Gold Cup. Didn't have the best of runs in the St Wilfred and flew at the end. Ayr should suit.

The Irish Champion Stakes looks lush for an ante-post bet as it has the two best criteria for one - an opposable shortie and a field that will cut up.

Weld surely isn't going to run Harzand/Fas Rock and Minding and Postponed are unlikely. So we're looking at a likely line-up of Harzand, Found, Almanzor, Time Test, TGG, Hawkbill.

As good as Harzand looks he is surely a stone wall 12f animal and I have to take him on. Almanzor I wasn't sure of until the other day at Deauville where he quickened clear off of not a great pace and I just feel he'll have too much speed for the Derby winner. 7s taken.
 
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Good thread this.

I like the look of Zonderland at the weekend at Goodwood. He's accustomed to running right handed so Goodwood won't be a problem. Lightly raced & more races to be won with him.
 
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Euronymous said:
The Irish Champion Stakes looks lush for an ante-post bet as it has the two best criteria for one - an opposable shortie and a field that will cut up.

Weld surely isn't going to run Harzand/Fas Rock and Minding and Postponed are unlikely. So we're looking at a likely line-up of Harzand, Found, Almanzor, Time Test, TGG, Hawkbill.

As good as Harzand looks he is surely a stone wall 12f animal and I have to take him on. Almanzor I wasn't sure of until the other day at Deauville where he quickened clear off of not a great pace and I just feel he'll have too much speed for the Derby winner. 7s taken.
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I don't think Time Test is a likely runner, either. Charlton was asked about him at York last week on C4 and gave a reply the gist of which was "all plans on hold at present". I took 8s Almanzor last Wednesday. He's an intended runner, definitely, and can only shorten.
 
I'm a massive fan of the Ballydoyle stable but USAR will not be winning the Arc this year.Two reasons1) he was an unraced two year old who they managed to get to Epsom-Commander in Chief and Rule The World were similar types and they were finished when Autumn arrived.2)He failed to get competetive in a Group3 yesterday-and I don't know where the improvement will come from in the next 6 weeks.
If he was mine I would call it a day until next year but I suspect they will run him at Leopardstown and then have a look at the Arc-hard enough season for a horse that didn't see the track until April.
 
Given they have so many candidates for middle distance races between colts, fillies and older horses it would seem the sensible thing to do Luke.
To be fair he was not beaten too far and looked very well in what was as hot a Group 3 as you are ever likely to see.
delighted to see Success days come good again and run as straight as he did.
The owner spent some dough to supplement him for Epsom and the horse looked to have issues with his hanging all Spring.
there should be a decent pot in him for all concerned hopefully; Arc on soft would not be out of the question.
 
Banksea goes up 5lbs from 94 to 99 in the revised ratings published yesterday. That's fair enough. He was briefly held up in his run at York and made his ground up towards the stands' side which probably wasn't the place to be. If things had dropped his way he might well have beaten the winner who has gone up 7lbs. The extra furlong and likely fast pace in the Cambridgeshire will be perfect for Banksea who remains 28/1 for Newmarket with Bet365 who pay quarter the odds first five.
 
Almanzor was cut across the board for the Irish Champion yesterday. Top price now 5/1, as short as 3s with one firm.
 
Wouldn't be taking Minding too lightly for the Irish Champion. It's worth 3X as much as the Matron, over a more suitable distance, and there's little else around for her in the near future.
 
Wouldn't dream of putting anyone off at the prices on this horse, but note of caution that Banksea is also entered in a 10f early closing valuable handicap at Newbury that the yard have targeted. Think they went there with the likes of Previs and Forte Dei Marmi rather than the Cambridgeshire. FWIW, I think the 9f would probably suit Banksea more than the 10f at Newbury, but he'll have twice as many rivals to beat as well.
 
Fair point, DJ. It's a concern but you'd hope common sense will prevail given Banksea's tendency to race freely at 10f. Cumani could do with winning a high profile race and the Cambs is the higher profile of the two, certainly in public perception.

Or he could go for both...
 
I have three Cumani horses in my tracker, Bermondsey and Shakopee as well as Banksea, and they are all in that Newbury race.
 
QE2 pricing looks a bit strange to me at present. The Gurkha is very long compared to Ribchester and Galileo Gold - possibility of softer ground and target (for the Gurkha) the cause perhaps?
 
simmo said:
QE2 pricing looks a bit strange to me at present. The Gurkha is very long compared to Ribchester and Galileo Gold - possibility of softer ground and target (for the Gurkha) the cause perhaps?
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He's on the easy list Simmo after taking ill after Goodwood. The last I read was that they weren't sure if he was going to race again.
 
On the subject of Champions Day,last years 2nd in the sprint Twilight Son looks a bet at 8/1 with it being a race he's sure to be targeted at and where he's quite likely to get his ground.
Quiet Reflection could be a danger at 14/1 but she's still to prove it against her elders, as for the others:
Limato- Wont run on less than good ground
Meccas Angel- 5f best trip, will probably go for the Abbaye
Magical Memory- BC sprint bound,slight suspicion he's not quite good enough to win a Grp1.

For a bit of interest I've had an Ante post haymaker treble on Growl (Ayr Gold Cup)
Harzand (Arc)
Fair Eva (1000 Guineas)
Dream the dream I say :D
 
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Euronymous said:
Unproven? She ran a cracker in the July Cup on ground firmer than ideal
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Agreed, she did run well but Limato was in a different parish that day and she still finished a head behind the average Suedois, Apart from the winner there wasn't exactly much to write home about in the July Cup imo.
 
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