Ante-Post Punting Plans/Propositions Thread.

Well I thought I did the right thing having Shan Blue for the RSA at 25's before today's race.

I wish someone had told me after his win today the trainer, jockey and everyone else reckon the horse needs dropping to 2M4Fs. That's my first anti post bet down the drain.

Getting 4 out of 5 winners on a lucky 31 cheered me up a bit.
 
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Marb said:
Well I thought I did the right thing having Shan Blue for the RSA at 25's before today's race.

I wish someone had told me after his win today the trainer, jockey and everyone else reckon the horse needs dropping to 2M4Fs. That's my first anti post bet down the drain.

Getting 4 out of 5 winners on a lucky 31 cheered me up a bit.
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Be nice for Envoi Allen to have something to mow down.
 
It seems every pundit on ITV wants the horse to drop in trip.

A bit strange when your horse has just established himself as the best 3 mile chaser in England.

That's a proper grade 1 novice race over 3M as well. I'm sure Frodon won it once.

I think they're playing with fire, but good fire to be playing with anyhow.
 
I'm a wee bit late to be boarding this particular bus but I've taken 7/1 Sire Du Berlais for the Stayers' Hurdle in anticipation of a fluent win today that might see him vie for favouritism at Cheltenham.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm a wee bit late to be boarding this particular bus but I've taken 7/1 Sire Du Berlais for the Stayers' Hurdle in anticipation of a fluent win today that might see him vie for favouritism at Cheltenham.
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In similar vein, I've taken 7/1 Minella Indo for the Gold Cup ahead of an expected win today and a cut in price.

My other GC bets are/were Topofthegame (NR) and Santini (not living up to my hopes).

At least one bookie will go NRNB come Friday and that will lead to cuts too.

Aah fvck it - I might as well do the double MI & SDB...
 
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Minella Indo is the shelf on which my main races AP books stand. (Best 14/1).
Zanahiyr (Best 5/1), Thyme Hill (best 11/1) Imperial Aura (13/2) and Abacadabras(7/1) are widely sown amongst probably too many multiples.

A good win today would give me a good feeling in these shitty times but I am a little concerned as to whether Aba's is up to the mark. We'll see tomorrow. Only a small stake likely today but very hopeful.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm indebted to a seldom [these days] seen forumite for highlighting one for the Welsh National and the reasoning is entirely sound.

We'll know more tomorrow but the chances are Secret Reprieve will go up 12lbs or thereabouts for his win at the weekend and I was too late for the 10/1 that was on offer. I've taken 7/1 this evening and I fully agree with my my co-forumite that this will go off around the 9/4 mark. I mentioned elsewhere that Native River probably will be taken out and Secret Reprieve will only have a 4lbs penalty so will be around 8lbs well in - that's 16 lengths in soft ground at the trip, which is a huge advantage - and will almost certainly make the cut.

I'm not given to over-excitement about ante-post bets because I know the pitfalls but, as I've mentioned before, once the betting public latches on to one that is officially lobbed in the price will collapse (eg Potterman 40-12/1 and Secret Investor 20/1-15/2 in the Ladbrokes Trophy) regardless of any other factors in play.
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Can some kind soul remind me of the ante-port terms for the Welsh National having been rearranged? Is my bet cancelled, stand as was for the rearranged race or does it depend on the bookie?

(I'll have a note of the bookie scribbled down somewhere but Mrs O 'tidied up' a lot of stuff leading into Christmas and, well, you know how that kind of thing can go... :blink::D)

Edit - managed to find it (Unibet) and it showing as 'open' potentially paying 7/1. I'm happy with that as it's a wee bit of a lumpy bet.
 
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I'm taking 10/3 on Defi to bounce back in the Clarence House as the field will be weak and Politologue's best form is all after a beefy break
 
Desert Orchid said:
Can some kind soul remind me of the ante-port terms for the Welsh National having been rearranged? Is my bet cancelled, stand as was for the rearranged race or does it depend on the bookie?

(I'll have a note of the bookie scribbled down somewhere but Mrs O 'tidied up' a lot of stuff leading into Christmas and, well, you know how that kind of thing can go... :blink::D)

Edit - managed to find it (Unibet) and it showing as 'open' potentially paying 7/1. I'm happy with that as it's a wee bit of a lumpy bet.
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Should we all be smashing this?
 
Marb said:
Boris giving statement at 8pm. See what the ramifications are for this sport.
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Be none I imagine, the fraud will be copying what Sturgeon did with Scotland. Despite them being 4 week behind us on statistics.

If sport is to go I’d imagine it’ll be round the February mark. Hopefully see some sort of improvement by then.
 
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I hope that's true, Double. I've just spent 3 hours looking at the Welsh National on Saturday. I hope I haven't wasted my time. :)
 
Marb said:
I hope that's true, Double. I've just spent 3 hours looking at the Welsh National on Saturday. I hope I haven't wasted my time. :)
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-3 every night of the week. Until the covers are lifted on Saturday morning, who knows how hard the ground will be. They laid them on heavy ground.
 
Slim said:
Should we all be smashing this?
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I would need to make sure the card is as originally scheduled, ie SP running 8lbs well in.

Whether you want to 'smash' a horse in a 3m6f race in heavy ground has to be a personal decision. I'm not saying I would use the word 'smash' in relation to my bet either but the stake is several times my normal bet these days.

There's always a slight uncertainty for me when a race is postponed a week or two. I sometimes wonder if a trainer has got one primed to explode on the original day whether the fuse will dampen a bit during the delay.

Knowing my luck the fvcker will be withdrawn :lol:
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I would need to make sure the card is as originally scheduled, ie SP running 8lbs well in.
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'A nice position to be in' - Williams relieved as Secret Reprieve escapes rise in weights..


Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...


The Ante-post rules stink...and are inconsistent with each bookmaker.

You lose your money if your horse doesn't take part but you have to take on re-entrants with no say in the matter!

Bet365 paid out on a non event...
 
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Maxbet said:
'A nice position to be in' - Williams relieved as Secret Reprieve escapes rise in weights..


Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...


The Ante-post rules stink...and are inconsistent with each bookmaker.

You lose your money if your horse doesn't take part but you have to take on re-entrants with no say in the matter!

Bet365 paid out on a non event...
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Not really the case here but in the past it’s been a different course and different ground. I recall backing an Irish horse AP for the King George years ago when Kempton was frozen off and it got rerouted to Sandown. No way I’d have backed it at Sandown but Ladbrokes insisted the bet stood. Unsurprisingly the horse didn’t travel


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Maxbet said:
Vieux Lion Rouge is also 8lb well in and now takes his chance when he wouldn't have done so if the race had gone ahead as normal...
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I had forgotten about VLR (probably because I didn't envisage him running after Haydock) but he has to be backed at 20/1 (5 places - see longshot thread). I'm not convinced the Haydock form is as good as it looked but I'm happy to pay to cover being wrong.
 
Marb said:
I hope that's true, Double. I've just spent 3 hours looking at the Welsh National on Saturday. I hope I haven't wasted my time. :)
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Maxbet said:
-3 every night of the week. Until the covers are lifted on Saturday morning, who knows how hard the ground will be. They laid them on heavy ground.
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2.30 Friday...snow forecast
 
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No frost under the covers, according to a report this morning. They're just a touch worried about how much snow arrives this afternoon.
 
Today
A frosty and bright start, with some areas seeing freezing fog patches that will be slow to clear. Things soon turn cloudier, however, as a band of precipitation moves south - giving outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature of 6°C.

Tonight
Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow continue southwards through the night. Widespread frosts are expected, locally severe over any snow cover, and turning icy in places. Minimum temperature -3°C.
 
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